Bayesian spatial analysis of age differences and geographical variations in illicit-drug-related mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Background: Drug use disorders are significant social and public health concerns in the Islamic Republic of Iran; however, little is known about drug-related mortality. Aims: We quantified the spatial and age distribution of direct illicit-drug-related mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran, to inform harm reduction policies and interventions. Methods: We modelled and mapped registered illicit-drug-related deaths from March 2016 to March 2017. Data were obtained from the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization. Besag–York–Mollie models were fitted using Bayesian spatial analysis to estimate the relative risk of illicit-drug-related mortality across different provinces and age groups. Results: There were 2203 registered illicit-drug-related deaths during the study period, 1289 (58.5%) occurred in people aged 20–39 years and among men (n = 2013; 91.4%). The overall relative risk (95% credible interval) of illicit-drug-related mortality in the provinces of Hamadan (3.37; 2.88–3.91), Kermanshah (1.90; 1.55–2.28), Tehran (1.80; 1.67–1.94), Lorestan (1.71; 1.37–2.09), Isfahan (1.40; 1.21–1.60), and Razavi Khorasan (1.18; 1.04–1.33) was significantly higher than in the rest of the country. Conclusion: We found evidence of age differences and spatial variations in illicit-drug-related mortality across different provinces in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Our findings highlight the urgent need to revisit existing drug-use treatment and harm reduction policies and ensure that overdose prevention programmes are adequately available for different age groups and settings.

Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis / 한국역학회지

OBJECTIVES: The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. METHODS: The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. RESULTS: The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. CONCLUSIONS: The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.