Persistent Pandemics.

We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.

Can a bank crisis break your heart?

BACKGROUND: To assess whether a banking system crisis increases short-term population cardiovascular mortality rates. METHODS: International, longitudinal multivariate regression analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality data from 1960 to 2002 RESULTS: A system-wide banking crisis increases population heart disease mortality rates by 6.4% (95% CI: 2.5% to 10.2%, p < 0.01) in high income countries, after controlling for economic change, macroeconomic instability, and population age and social distribution. The estimated effect is nearly four times as large in low income countries. CONCLUSION: Banking crises are a significant determinant of short-term increases in heart disease mortality rates, and may have more severe consequences for developing countries.