ABSTRACT
Objetivos: prever a tendência epidemiológica de casos e óbitos do COVID-19 no Brasil e, especificamente, em Mato Grosso, por meio do modelo estatístico duplo exponencial. Métodos: para a realização deste trabalho, foram utilizados dados de casos e óbitos do COVID-19 fornecidos pelo Ministério da Saúde do Brasil e Secretaria de Estado de Saúde de Mato Grosso, e, para realizar as previsões com esses dados, foi utilizada a técnica estatística de séries temporais, considerando o modelo exponencial duplo, e para o processamento dos dados, foi utilizado o programa MINITAB V 17. Resultados: os resultados mostram que os valores ajustados pelo modelo exponencial duplo transformado dos casos e óbitos estão muito próximos dos valores observados de COVID-19 no Brasil e, principalmente, em Mato Grosso, no período considerado, indicando que esse modelo é adequado para os dados em estudo, o qual foi verificado, prevendo alguns valores com seus respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95%. Conclusões: a possibilidade de se estimar, pautado em análises estatísticas, o número de casos e óbitos de COVID-19 que ocorrerá no Brasil e no estado de Mato Grosso poderá instrumentalizar os gestores para o planejamento de ações estratégicas de prevenção, monitoramento e controle da pandemia.(AU)
Objective: to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil and Mato Grosso state using the double exponential statistical model. Methods: in order to carry out this work, data on cases and deaths from COVID-19 provided by the Ministry of Health of Brazil and the State Secretariat of Health of Mato Grosso were used and to make the predictions with these data, the time series statistical technique was used, considering the double exponential model and the MINITAB V 17 program was used for data processing. Results: the results show that the values adjusted by the double exponential transformed model of cases and deaths are very close to the observed values of COVID-19 in Brazil and Mato Grosso, in the period considered, indicating that this model is suitable for the data under study, which was verified by predicting some values with their respective 95% confidence intervals. Conclusions: the possibility of estimating, based on statistical analysis, the number of cases and deaths of COVID-19 that will occur in Brazil and in the state of Mato Grosso, may instrumentalize the managers for the planning of strategic actions for prevention, monitoring and control of pandemic.(AU)
Subject(s)
Humans , Death Certificates , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Brazil , Time Series Studies , IncidenceABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: to report the experience of investigating the outbreak of acute diarrhoea (AD) at the XII Indigenous Games in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil, 2013. METHODS: data were collected from the Advanced Medical Post's service records of the AD cases, which were defined as 'individual Games participant referring episode of diarrhoea and/or vomiting'; AD attack rates, relative frequencies and measures of the central tendency of sociodemographic and clinical variables, sanitary inspections and results of bromatological samples were calculated. RESULTS: 384 (37%) cases met the definition of AD; the epidemic peaks of the outbreak occurred on the 4th and 7th day of the event and the disease attack rate was 33.5%; sanitary inspection showed evidence of food contamination by coagulase-negative Staphylococci, Bacillus cereus and heat resistant coliforms. CONCLUSION: there an outbreak of AD caused by food contamination.
