Clinical course and prognosis of smoldering (asymptomatic) multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Smoldering (asymptomatic) multiple myeloma is an asymptomatic plasma-cell proliferative disorder associated with a high risk of progression to symptomatic multiple myeloma or amyloidosis. Prognostic factors for the progression and outcome of this disease are unclear. METHODS: We searched a computerized database and reviewed the medical records of all patients at Mayo Clinic who fulfilled the criteria of the International Myeloma Working Group for the diagnosis of smoldering multiple myeloma between 1970 and 1995. Bone marrow aspirate and biopsy specimens were studied, and patients were followed throughout the course of disease. RESULTS: During the 26-year period, 276 patients fulfilled the criteria for smoldering multiple myeloma. During 2131 cumulative person-years of follow-up, symptomatic multiple myeloma or amyloidosis developed in 163 persons (59%). The overall risk of progression was 10% per year for the first 5 years, approximately 3% per year for the next 5 years, and 1% per year for the last 10 years; the cumulative probability of progression was 73% at 15 years. At diagnosis, significant risk factors for progression included the serum level and type of monoclonal protein, the presence of urinary light chain, the extent and pattern of bone marrow involvement, and the reduction in uninvolved immunoglobulins. The proportion of plasma cells in the bone marrow and the serum monoclonal protein level were combined to create a risk-stratification model with three distinct prognostic groups. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of progression from smoldering multiple myeloma to symptomatic disease is related to the proportion of bone marrow plasma cells and the serum monoclonal protein level at diagnosis.

Alpha1-antitrypsin and neutrophil elastase imbalance and lung cancer risk.

OBJECTIVE: Imbalance between alpha(1)-antitrypsin and neutrophil elastase is an underlying cause of lung tissue damage that may create a favorable host environment for carcinogenesis. We conducted a case-control study to investigate whether genetic variations indicative of alpha(1)-antitrypsin deficiency (A1ATD) or an excess of neutrophil elastase modify lung cancer risk DESIGN: The case patients were 305 consecutively identified primary lung cancer patients, and the control subjects were 338 community residents. Protease inhibitor-1 (PI1), encoding alpha(1)-antitrypsin, was typed by an isoelectric focusing assay. Neutrophil elastase-2 (ELA2), encoding neutrophil elastase, was typed by two single-nucleotide polymorphism sites. Multivariable logistic regression models tested the independent and interactive effects of PI1, ELA2, tobacco smoke exposure, COPD, and family history of lung cancer RESULTS: Sex and ethnicity were comparable between case patients and control subjects, but case patients were more likely to be smokers, and to have a history of COPD, environmental tobacco smoke exposure, and a positive family history of lung cancer. Haplotype analysis indicated an overall strong association between the two ELA2 markers and lung cancer risk. Our best-fitting model showed significant and independent effects of the PI1-deficient allele (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4 to 3.0) and the ELA2 T-G haplotype (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.9 to 8.9) on lung cancer risk, and an increased risk (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.4 to 2.8) for individuals carrying both a PI1-deficient allele and a G-G haplotype CONCLUSIONS: Genotypes indicative of A1ATD and/or an excess of neutrophil elastase are significantly associated with lung cancer risk. Our findings may provide opportunities to better understand the mechanisms of lung cancer development and risk reduction.