Hormone seasonality in medical records suggests circannual endocrine circuits.

Hormones control the major biological functions of stress response, growth, metabolism, and reproduction. In animals, these hormones show pronounced seasonality, with different set-points for different seasons. In humans, the seasonality of these hormones remains unclear, due to a lack of datasets large enough to discern common patterns and cover all hormones. Here, we analyze an Israeli health record on 46 million person-years, including millions of hormone blood tests. We find clear seasonal patterns: The effector hormones peak in winter-spring, whereas most of their upstream regulating pituitary hormones peak only months later, in summer. This delay of months is unexpected because known delays in the hormone circuits last hours. We explain the precise delays and amplitudes by proposing and testing a mechanism for the circannual clock: The gland masses grow with a timescale of months due to trophic effects of the hormones, generating a feedback circuit with a natural frequency of about a year that can entrain to the seasons. Thus, humans may show coordinated seasonal set-points with a winter-spring peak in the growth, stress, metabolism, and reproduction axes.

Senescent cells and the incidence of age-related diseases.

Age-related diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney failure, and osteoarthritis have universal features: Their incidence rises exponentially with age with a slope of 6-8% per year and decreases at very old ages. There is no conceptual model which explains these features in so many diverse diseases in terms of a single shared biological factor. Here, we develop such a model, and test it using a nationwide medical record dataset on the incidence of nearly 1000 diseases over 50 million life-years, which we provide as a resource. The model explains incidence using the accumulation of senescent cells, damaged cells that cause inflammation and reduce regeneration, whose level rise stochastically with age. The exponential rise and late drop in incidence are captured by two parameters for each disease: the susceptible fraction of the population and the threshold concentration of senescent cells that causes disease onset. We propose a physiological mechanism for the threshold concentration for several disease classes, including an etiology for diseases of unknown origin such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and osteoarthritis. The model can be used to design optimal treatments that remove senescent cells, suggeting that treatment starting at old age can sharply reduce the incidence of all age-related diseases, and thus increase the healthspan.