Prediction of Incidence Trend of Influenza-Like Illness in Wuhan Based on ARIMA Model.

Objective: The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used to predict the trend of infectious diseases. This paper is aimed at analyzing the application of the ARIMA model in the prediction of the incidence trend of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Wuhan and providing a scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of influenza. Methods: The weekly ILI data of two influenza surveillance sentinel hospitals in Wuhan City published on the website of the National Influenza Center of China were collected, and the ARIMA model was used to model the data from 2014 to 2020, to predict and verify the ILI data in 2021. Results: The optimal model for the incidence trend of ILI in Wuhan was ARIMA (1, 1, 1), the residuals were in line with the white noise sequence (0.018 < Ljung-Box Q < 30.695, P > 0.05), and the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value was small, which all proved the model was practical. Conclusion: ARIMA (1, 1, 1) can effectively simulate the short-term incidence trend of ILI in Wuhan.

Phthalate exposure in association with the use of personal care products among general population from Shanghai.

Phthalates are used in a wide variety of personal care products (PCPs) as solubilizer, denaturant or color fixative. However, there are few studies referring the correlation between phthalate exposure and PCPs use among general population in China. In this study, ten metabolites of phthalates in spot urine samples (N = 500) were quantified using ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. The frequency and duration of 12 types of PCPs were collected by questionnaire survey. The associations of phthalate metabolites and PCPs use were assessed by multivariable liner regression models. Median concentration of mono-benzylphthalate (MBzP) was significantly higher among frequent users of almost all PCPs. Low molecular weight phthalates (monomethyl phthalate (MMP), mono-n-butylphthalate (MnBP) and monoisobutylphthalate (MiBP)) were significantly lower among frequent user of some rinse-off PCPs (e.g., shampoo, facial cleanser, and body wash). Meanwhile, monoethylphthalate (MEP) was positive correlated with frequently use of facial moisturizer. Mono-2-ethylhexylphthalate (MEHP) and MBzP showed a significant positive association with frequently use of body lotion. Univariate linear analyses indicated a significant decreasing trend between urinary concentrations of MMP, MnBP, and the number of rinse-off PCPs being frequently used, and a significant increasing trend between urinary MBzP and the number of leave-on products being frequently used. These findings indicated that the use of some PCPs, especially leave-on PCPs, could be a potential source of exposure to some phthalates.

Probabilistic acute risk assessment of cumulative exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides from dietary vegetables and fruits in Shanghai populations.

Organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) and carbamate pesticides (CPs) are among the most widely used pesticides in China, playing a major role in protecting agricultural commodities. In this study, we determined the cumulative acute exposure to OPs and CPs of Shanghai residents from vegetables and fruits (VFs). The food consumption data were obtained from the Shanghai Food Consumption Survey (SHFCS) of 2012-14 including a total of 1973 participants aged 2-90 years. The pesticide residue data were obtained from the Shanghai monitoring programme during 2008-11 with 34 organophosphates and 11 carbamates analysed in a total of 5335 samples of VFs. A probabilistic approach was performed as recommended by the EFSA, using the optimistic model with non-detects set as zero and with processing factors (PFs) being used and the pessimistic model with non-detects replaced by limit of detection (LOD) and without PFs. We used the relative potency factor (RPF) method to normalise the various pesticides to the index compound (IC) of methamidophos and chlorpyrifos separately. Only in the pessimistic model using methamidophos as the IC was there was small risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD (3 µg kg-1 bw day-1) in the populations of preschool children (0.029%), school-age children (0.022%) and adults (0.002%). There were no risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD of methamidophos in the optimistic model and of chlorpyrifos (100 µg kg-1 bw day-1) in both optimistic and pessimistic models in all three populations. Considering the Chinese habits of overwhelmingly eating processed food (vegetables being cooked, and fruits being washed or peeled), we conclude that little acute risk was found for the exposure to VF-sourced OPs and CPs in Shanghai.

Gender Difference on the Association between Dietary Patterns and Obesity in Chinese Middle-Aged and Elderly Populations.

Dietary patterns are linked to obesity, but the gender difference in the association between dietary patterns and obesity remains unclear. We explored this gender difference in a middle-aged and elderly populations in Shanghai. Residents (n = 2046; aged ≥45 years; 968 men and 1078 women) who participated in the Shanghai Food Consumption Survey were studied. Factor analysis of data from four periods of 24-h dietary recalls (across 2012-2014) identified dietary patterns. Height, body weight, and waist circumference were measured to calculate the body mass index. A log binominal model examined the association between dietary patterns and obesity, stratified by gender. Four dietary patterns were identified for both genders: rice staple, wheat staple, snacks, and prudent patterns. The rice staple pattern was associated positively with abdominal obesity in men (prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.358; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.132-1.639; p = 0.001), but was associated negatively with general obesity in women (PR = 0.745; 95% CI: 0.673-0.807; p = 0.031). Men in the highest quartile of the wheat staple pattern had significantly greater risk of central obesity (PR = 1.331; 95% CI: 1.094-1.627; p = 0.005). There may be gender differences in the association between dietary patterns and obesity in middle-aged and elderly populations in Shanghai, China.

[Overweight and obesity in Shanghai adults and their associations with dietary patterns].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Shanghai adults, and explore their associations with dietary patterns. METHODS: Food frequency questionnaire information of 1535 adults aged > or = 18 years old were collected by multi-stage cluster random sampling method, and used for the identification of overweight and obesity based on the criteria from Working Group On Obesity In China. Factor analysis was applied to determine major dietary patterns that may potentially associated with overweight and obesity. RESULTS: Four dietary patterns were identified, namely "western food" pattern, "high protein and calcium" pattern, "fruits and snacks" pattern, "stapple food and vegetables" pattern. Whether or not controlling the confounding factors of age, gender and degree of education, a positively association was found between "stapple food and vegetables" pattern and obesity by logistic analysis (before adjustment, OR = 2.76 between the upper (Q4) and lower (Q1) quartile, P < 0.01, after adjustment, OR = 2.67 between Q4 and Q1, P < 0.01). The Q4 group of "stapple food and vegetables" pattern had higher proportion of carbohydrates that contributed to total energy than the Q1 group (43.9% vs. 34.3%, P < 0.01). The Q4 group of "stapple food and vegetables" pattern had higher energy intake of 1.96 - fold than the Q1 group. CONCLUSION: "Stapple food and vegetables" pattern may be a risk factor for obesity.