Cost-effectiveness of a reactive oral cholera immunization campaign using Shanchol™ in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Oral cholera vaccines (OCV) have been recommended as additional measures for the prevention of cholera. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of OCV use in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in reactive outbreak contexts. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of the use of OCV Shanchol in response to a cholera outbreak in the Lake Chilwa area, Malawi. METHODS: The Excel-based Vaccine Introduction Cost-Effectiveness model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness ratios with and without indirect protection. Model input parameters were obtained from cost evaluations and epidemiological studies conducted in Malawi and published literature. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses of cost-effectiveness ratios were performed. RESULTS: Compared with the reference scenario i.e. treatment of cholera cases, the immunization campaign would have prevented 636 and 1 020 cases of cholera without and with indirect protection, respectively. The cost-effectiveness ratios were US$19 212 per death, US$500 per case, and US$738 per DALY averted without indirect protection. They were US$10 165 per death, US$264 per case, and US$391 per DALY averted with indirect protection. The net cost per DALY averted was sensitive to four input parameters, including case fatality rate, duration of immunity (vaccine's protective duration), discount rate and cholera incidence. CONCLUSION: Relative to the Malawi gross domestic product per capita, the reactive OCV campaign represented a cost-effective intervention, particularly when considering indirect vaccine effects. Results will need to be assessed in other settings, e.g., during campaigns implemented directly by the Ministry of Health rather than by international partners.

Epidemiology of cholera.

Cholera is an ancient disease that remains a public health problem in many impoverished locations around the world. Seven pandemics of cholera have been recorded since the first pandemic in 1817, the last of which is on going. Overcrowding, poverty, insufficient water and sanitation facilities increase the risk for cholera outbreaks. The epidemiology of cholera in the areas in Asia, Africa and the Americas where the disease occurs continues to evolve.

Oral cholera vaccine coverage during a preventive door-to-door mass vaccination campaign in Nampula, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: In addition to improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) measures and optimal case management, the introduction of Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a complementary strategy for cholera prevention and control for vulnerable population groups. In October 2016, the Mozambique Ministry of Health implemented a mass vaccination campaign using a two-dose regimen of the Shanchol™ OCV in six high-risk neighborhoods of Nampula city, in Northern Mozambique. Overall 193,403 people were targeted by the campaign, which used a door-to-door strategy. During campaign follow-up, a population survey was conducted to assess: (1) OCV coverage; (2) frequency of adverse events following immunization; (3) vaccine acceptability and (4) reasons for non-vaccination. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the absence of a household listing and clear administrative neighborhood delimitations, we used geospatial technology to select households from satellite images and used the support of community leaders. One person per household was randomly selected for interview. In total, 636 individuals were enrolled in the survey. The overall vaccination coverage with at least one dose (including card and oral reporting) was 69.5% (95%CI: 51.2-88.2) and the two-dose coverage was 51.2% (95%CI: 37.9-64.3). The campaign was well accepted. Among the 185 non-vaccinated individuals, 83 (44.6%) did not take the vaccine because they were absent when the vaccination team visited their houses. Among the 451 vaccinated individuals, 47 (10%) reported minor and non-specific complaints, and 78 (17.3%) mentioned they did not receive any information before the campaign. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In spite of overall coverage being slightly lower than expected, the use of a mobile door-to-door strategy remains a viable option even in densely-populated urban settings. Our results suggest that campaigns can be successfully implemented and well accepted in Mozambique in non-emergency contexts in order to prevent cholera outbreaks. These findings are encouraging and complement the previous Mozambican experience related to OCV.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Public-Health Utility of Clinical Case Definitions Based on the Signs and Symptoms of Cholera in Africa.

During 2014, Africa reported more than half of the global suspected cholera cases. Based on the data collected from seven countries in the African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol), we assessed the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of clinical cholera case definitions, including that recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) using culture confirmation as the gold standard. The study was designed to assess results in real-world field situations in settings with recent cholera outbreaks or endemicity. From June 2011 to July 2015, a total of 5,084 persons with suspected cholera were tested for Vibrio cholerae in seven different countries of which 35.7% had culture confirmation. For all countries combined, the WHO case definition had a sensitivity = 92.7%, specificity = 8.1%, positive predictive value = 36.1%, and negative predictive value = 66.6%. Adding dehydration, vomiting, or rice water stools to the case definition could increase the specificity without a substantial decrease in sensitivity. Future studies could further refine our findings primarily by using more sensitive methods for cholera confirmation.

Innovative vaccine delivery strategies in response to a cholera outbreak in the challenging context of Lake Chilwa. A rapid qualitative assessment.

A reactive campaign using two doses of Shanchol Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) was implemented in 2016 in the Lake Chilwa Region (Malawi) targeting fish dependent communities. Three strategies for the second vaccine dose delivery (including delivery by a community leader and self-administration) were used to facilitate vaccine access. This assessment collected vaccine perceptions and opinions about the OCV campaign of 313 study participants, including: fishermen, fish traders, farmers, community leaders, and one health and one NGO officer. Socio-demographic surveys were conducted, In Depth Interviews and Focus Group Discussions were conducted before and during the campaign. Some fishermen perceived the traditional delivery strategy as reliable but less practical. Delivery by traditional leaders was acceptable for some participants while others worried about traditional leaders not being trained to deliver vaccines or beneficiaries taking doses on their own. A slight majority of beneficiaries considered the self-administration strategy practical while some beneficiaries worried about storing vials outside of the cold chain or losing vials. During the campaign, a majority of participants preferred receiving oral vaccines instead of injections given ease of intake and lack of pain. OCV was perceived as efficacious and safe. However, a lack of information on how sero-protection may be delayed and the degree of sero-protection led to loss of trust in vaccine potency among some participants who witnessed cholera cases among vaccinated individuals. OCV campaign implementation requires accompanying communication on protective levels, less than 100% vaccine efficacy, delays in onset of sero-protection, and out of cold chain storage.

Cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in rural Malawi.

Cholera remains an important public health problem in many low- and middle-income countries. Vaccination has been recommended as a possible intervention for the prevention and control of cholera. Evidence, especially data on disease burden, cost-of-illness, delivery costs and cost-effectiveness to support a wider use of vaccine is still weak. This study aims at estimating the cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in Machinga and Zomba Districts, Malawi. A cross-sectional study using retrospectively collected cost data was undertaken in this investigation. One hundred patients were purposefully selected for the assessment of the household cost-of-illness and four cholera treatment centres and one health facility were selected for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Data collected for the assessment in households included direct and indirect costs borne by cholera patients and their families while only direct costs were considered for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Whenever possible, descriptive and regression analysis were used to assess difference in mean costs between groups of patients. The average costs to patients' households and health facilities for treating an episode of cholera amounted to US$65.6 and US$59.7 in 2016 for households and health facilities, respectively equivalent to international dollars (I$) 249.9 and 227.5 the same year. Costs incurred in treating a cholera episode were proportional to duration of hospital stay. Moreover, 52% of households used coping strategies to compensate for direct and indirect costs imposed by the disease. Both households and health facilities could avert significant treatment expenditures through a broader use of pre-emptive cholera vaccination. These findings have direct policy implications regarding priority investments for the prevention and control of cholera.

Oral cholera vaccine coverage in hard-to-reach fishermen communities after two mass Campaigns, Malawi, 2016.

CONTEXT: From December 2015 to August 2016, a large epidemic of cholera affected the fishermen of Lake Chilwa in Malawi. A first reactive Oral Cholera Vaccines (OCV) campaign was organized, in February, in a 2km radius of the lake followed by a preemptive one, conducted in November, in a 25km radius. We present the vaccine coverage reached in hard-to-reach population using simplified delivery strategies. METHOD: We conducted two-stage random-sampling cross-sectional surveys among individuals living in a 2km and 25km radius of Lake Chilwa (islands and floating homes included). Individuals aged 12months and older from Machinga and Zomba districts were sampled: 43 clusters of 14 households were surveyed. Simplified strategies were used for those living in islands and floating homes: self- delivery and community-supervised delivery of the second dose. Vaccine coverage (VC) for at-least-two-doses was estimated taking into account sampling weights and design effects. RESULTS: A total of 1176 households were surveyed (2.7% of non-response). Among the 2833 individuals living in the 2km radius of Lake and the 2915 in the 25km radius: 457 (16.1%) and 239 (8.2%) lived in floating homes or on islands at some point in the year, respectively. For the overall population, VC was 75.6% and 54.2%, respectively. In the 2km radius, VC was 92.2% for those living on the lake at some point of the year: 271 (64.8%) used the simplified strategies. The main reasons for non-vaccination were absence during the campaign and vaccine shortage. Few adverse events occurring in the 24h following vaccination was reported. CONCLUSIONS: We reached a high two-dose coverage of the most at-risk population using simplified delivery strategies. Because of the high fishermen mobility, regular catch-up campaigns or another strategy specifically targeting fishermen need to be assessed for more efficient vaccines use.

Epidemiology of cholera outbreaks and socio-economic characteristics of the communities in the fishing villages of Uganda: 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: The communities in fishing villages in the Great Lakes Region of Africa and particularly in Uganda experience recurrent cholera outbreaks that lead to considerable mortality and morbidity. We evaluated cholera epidemiology and population characteristics in the fishing villages of Uganda to better target prevention and control interventions of cholera and contribute to its elimination from those communities. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective study between 2011-15 in fishing villages in Uganda. We collected, reviewed and documented epidemiological and socioeconomic data for 10 cholera outbreaks that occurred in fishing communities located along the African Great Lakes and River Nile in Uganda. These outbreaks caused 1,827 suspected cholera cases and 43 deaths, with a Case-Fatality Ratio (CFR) of 2.4%. Though the communities in the fishing villages make up only 5-10% of the Ugandan population, they bear the biggest burden of cholera contributing 58% and 55% of all reported cases and deaths in Uganda during the study period. The CFR was significantly higher among males than females (3.2% vs. 1.3%, p = 0.02). The outbreaks were seasonal with most cases occurring during the months of April-May. Male children under age of 5 years, and 5-9 years had increased risk. Cholera was endemic in some villages with well-defined "hotspots". Practices predisposing communities to cholera outbreaks included: the use of contaminated lake water, poor sanitation and hygiene. Additional factors were: ignorance, illiteracy, and poverty. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Cholera outbreaks were a major cause of morbidity and mortality among the fishing communities in Uganda. In addition to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccines could play an important role in the prevention and control of these outbreaks, particularly when targeted to high-risk areas and populations. Promotion and facilitation of access to social services including education and reduction in poverty should contribute to cholera prevention, control and elimination in these communities.

Cholera Incidence and Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Sites during Multi-country Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Cholera burden in Africa remains unknown, often because of weak national surveillance systems. We analyzed data from the African Cholera Surveillance Network (www.africhol.org). METHODS/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During June 2011-December 2013, we conducted enhanced surveillance in seven zones and four outbreak sites in Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire. All health facilities treating cholera cases were included. Cholera incidences were calculated using culture-confirmed cholera cases and culture-confirmed cholera cases corrected for lack of culture testing usually due to overwhelmed health systems and imperfect test sensitivity. Of 13,377 reported suspected cases, 34% occurred in Conakry, Guinea, 47% in Goma, DRC, and 19% in the remaining sites. From 0-40% of suspected cases were aged under five years and from 0.3-86% had rice water stools. Within surveillance zones, 0-37% of suspected cases had confirmed cholera compared to 27-38% during outbreaks. Annual confirmed incidence per 10,000 population was <0.5 in surveillance zones, except Goma where it was 4.6. Goma and Conakry had corrected incidences of 20.2 and 5.8 respectively, while the other zones a median of 0.3. During outbreaks, corrected incidence varied from 2.6 to 13.0. Case fatality ratios ranged from 0-10% (median, 1%) by country. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Across different African epidemiological contexts, substantial variation occurred in cholera incidence, age distribution, clinical presentation, culture confirmation, and testing frequency. These results can help guide preventive activities, including vaccine use.

Comparative Characterization of Vibrio cholerae O1 from Five Sub-Saharan African Countries Using Various Phenotypic and Genotypic Techniques.

We used standardized methodologies to characterize Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates from Guinea, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Togo, Côte d'Ivoire and Mozambique. We investigated 257 human isolates collected in 2010 to 2013. DRC isolates serotyped O1 Inaba, while isolates from other countries serotyped O1 Ogawa. All isolates were biotype El Tor and positive for cholera toxin. All isolates showed multidrug resistance but lacked ciprofloxacin resistance. Antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of isolates varied between countries. In particular, the susceptibility profile of isolates from Mozambique (East-Africa) included resistance to ceftriaxone and was distinctly different to the susceptibility profiles of isolates from countries located in West- and Central-Africa. Molecular subtyping of isolates using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis showed a complex relationship among isolates. Some PFGE patterns were unique to particular countries and clustered by country; while other PFGE patterns were shared by isolates from multiple countries, indicating that the same genetic lineage is present in multiple countries. Our data add to a better understanding of cholera epidemiology in Africa.

Nosocomial Cholera Outbreak in a Mental Hospital: Challenges and Lessons Learnt from Butabika National Referral Mental Hospital, Uganda.

During the last four decades, Uganda has experienced repeated cholera outbreaks in communities; no cholera outbreaks have been reported in Ugandan health facilities. In October 2008, a unique cholera outbreak was confirmed in Butabika National Mental Referral Hospital (BNMRH), Uganda. This article describes actions taken to control the outbreak, challenges, and lessons learnt. We reviewed patient and hospital reports for clinical symptoms and signs, treatment and outcome, patient mental diagnosis, and challenges noted during management of patients and contacts. Out of 114 BNMRH patients on two affected wards, 18 cholera cases and five deaths were documented for an attack rate of 15.8% and a case fatality rate of 28%. Wards and surroundings were intensively disinfected and 96 contacts (psychiatric patients) in the affected wards received chemoprophylaxis with oral ciprofloxacin 500 mg twice daily until November 5, 2008. We documented a nosocomial cholera outbreak in BNMRH with a high case fatality of 28% compared with the national average of 2.4% for cholera outbreaks in communities. To avoid cholera outbreaks and potentially high mortality among patients in mental institutions, procedures for prompt diagnosis, treatment, disinfection, and prophylaxis are needed and preemptive use of oral cholera vaccines should be considered.

Deciphering the origin of the 2012 cholera epidemic in Guinea by integrating epidemiological and molecular analyses.

Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an "atypical" El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control strategies throughout the African continent.

Use of Vibrio cholerae vaccine in an outbreak in Guinea.

BACKGROUND: The use of vaccines to prevent and control cholera is currently under debate. Shanchol is one of the two oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization; however, its effectiveness under field conditions and the protection it confers in the first months after administration remain unknown. The main objective of this study was to estimate the short-term effectiveness of two doses of Shanchol used as a part of the integrated response to a cholera outbreak in Africa. METHODS: We conducted a matched case-control study in Guinea between May 20 and October 19, 2012. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by means of a rapid test, and controls were selected among neighbors of the same age and sex as the case patients. The odds of vaccination were compared between case patients and controls in bivariate and adjusted conditional logistic-regression models. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-odds ratio)×100. RESULTS: Between June 8 and October 19, 2012, we enrolled 40 case patients and 160 controls in the study for the primary analysis. After adjustment for potentially confounding variables, vaccination with two complete doses was associated with significant protection against cholera (effectiveness, 86.6%; 95% confidence interval, 56.7 to 95.8; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, Shanchol was effective when used in response to a cholera outbreak in Guinea. This study provides evidence supporting the addition of vaccination as part of the response to an outbreak. It also supports the ongoing efforts to establish a cholera vaccine stockpile for emergency use, which would enhance outbreak prevention and control strategies. (Funded by Médecins sans Frontières.).

Cholera in Africa: new momentum in fighting an old problem.

Cholera remains a grave public health problem in Africa. It is endemic with seasonal variations around the central African Great Lakes. Along the coasts, it occurs mostly in rapidly expanding epidemics, with intercalated 3-5 year lull-periods. Case-fatality ratios remain high at 2­5% against the global declining trend. Insufficient safe water and sanitation coverage are the main causes of persistent cholera in Africa and this is unlikely to improve soon. However, an efficacious oral cholera vaccine is now available and new groups and initiatives like the African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) allow countries to enhance their capacities for an integrated cross-border approach using all means necessary to tackle cholera in Africa.

Cholera outbreaks in Africa.

During the current seventh cholera pandemic, Africa bore the major brunt of global disease burden. More than 40 years after its resurgence in Africa in 1970, cholera remains a grave public health problem, characterized by large disease burden, frequent outbreaks, persistent endemicity, and high CFRs, particularly in the region of the central African Great Lakes which might act as reservoirs for cholera. There, cases occur year round with a rise in incidence during the rainy season. Elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, cholera occurs mostly in outbreaks of varying size with a constant threat of widespread epidemics. Between 1970 and 2011, African countries reported 3,221,050 suspected cholera cases to the World Health Organization, representing 46 % of all cases reported globally. Excluding the Haitian epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 86 % of reported cases and 99 % of deaths worldwide in 2011. The number of cholera cases is possibly much higher than what is reported to the WHO due to the variation in modalities, completeness, and case definition of national cholera data. One source on country specific incidence rates for Africa, adjusting for underreporting, estimates 1,341,080 cases and 160,930 deaths (52.6 % of 2,548,227 estimated cases and 79.6 % of 209,216 estimated deaths worldwide). Another estimates 1,411,453 cases and 53,632 deaths per year, respectively (50 % of 2,836,669 estimated cases and 58.6 % of 91,490 estimated deaths worldwide). Within Africa, half of all cases between 1970 and 2011 were notified from only seven countries: Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania, and South Africa. In contrast to a global trend of decreasing case fatality ratios (CFRs), CFRs have remained stable in Africa at approximately 2 %. Early propagation of cholera outbreaks depends largely on the extent of individual bacterial shedding, host and organism characteristics, the likelihood of people coming into contact with an infectious dose of Vibrio cholerae and on the virulence of the implicated strain. Cholera transmission can then be amplified by several factors including contamination of human water- or food sources; climate and extreme weather events; political and economic crises; high population density combined with poor quality informal housing and poor hygiene practices; spread beyond a local community through human travel and animals, e.g., water birds. At an individual level, cholera risk may increase with decreasing immunity and hypochlorhydria, such as that induced by Helicobacter pylori infection, which is endemic in much of Africa, and may increase individual susceptibility and cholera incidence. Since contaminated water is the main vehicle for the spread of cholera, the obvious long-term solution to eradicate the disease is the provision of safe water to all African populations. This requires considerable human and financial resources and time. In the short and medium term, vaccination may help to prevent and control the spread of cholera outbreaks. Regardless of the intervention, further understanding of cholera biology and epidemiology is essential to identify populations and areas at increased risk and thus ensure the most efficient use of scarce resources for the prevention and control of cholera.