Noise and opinion dynamics: how ambiguity promotes pro-majority consensus in the presence of confirmation bias.

Opinion dynamics are affected by cognitive biases and noise. While mathematical models have focused extensively on biases, we still know surprisingly little about how noise shapes opinion patterns. Here, we use an agent-based opinion dynamics model to investigate the interplay between confirmation bias-represented as bounded confidence-and different types of noise. After analysing where noise can enter social interaction, we propose a type of noise that has not been discussed so far, ambiguity noise. While previously considered types of noise acted on agents either before, after or independent of social interaction, ambiguity noise acts on communicated messages, assuming that socially transmitted opinions are inherently noisy. We find that noise can induce agreement when confirmation bias is moderate, but different types of noise require quite different conditions for this effect to occur. An application of our model to the climate change debate shows that at just the right mix of confirmation bias and ambiguity noise, opinions tend to converge to high levels of climate change concern. This result is not observed with the other types. Our findings highlight the importance of considering and distinguishing between the various types of noise and the unique role of ambiguity in opinion formation.

Social identity bias and communication network clustering interact to shape patterns of opinion dynamics.

Social influence aligns people's opinions, but social identities and related in-group biases interfere with this alignment. For instance, the recent rise of young climate activists (e.g. 'Fridays for Future' or 'Last Generation') has highlighted the importance of generational identities in the climate change debate. It is unclear how social identities affect the emergence of opinion patterns, such as consensus or disagreement, in a society. Here, we present an agent-based model to explore this question. Agents communicate in a network and form opinions through social influence. The agents have fixed social identities which involve homophily in their interaction preferences and in-group bias in their perception of others. We find that the in-group bias has opposing effects depending on the network topology. The bias impedes consensus in highly random networks by promoting the formation of echo chambers within social identity groups. By contrast, the bias facilitates consensus in highly clustered networks by aligning dispersed in-group agents across the network and, thereby, preventing the formation of isolated echo chambers. Our model uncovers the mechanisms underpinning these opposing effects of the in-group bias and highlights the importance of the communication network topology for shaping opinion dynamics.

Modelling the acclimation capacity of coral reefs to a warming ocean.

The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.

Extinction and dawn of the modern world in the Carnian (Late Triassic).

The Carnian Pluvial Episode (Late Triassic) was a time of global environmental changes and possibly substantial coeval volcanism. The extent of the biological turnover in marine and terrestrial ecosystems is not well understood. Here, we present a meta-analysis of fossil data that suggests a substantial reduction in generic and species richness and the disappearance of 33% of marine genera. This crisis triggered major radiations. In the sea, the rise of the first scleractinian reefs and rock-forming calcareous nannofossils points to substantial changes in ocean chemistry. On land, there were major diversifications and originations of conifers, insects, dinosaurs, crocodiles, lizards, turtles, and mammals. Although there is uncertainty on the precise age of some of the recorded biological changes, these observations indicate that the Carnian Pluvial Episode was linked to a major extinction event and might have been the trigger of the spectacular radiation of many key groups that dominate modern ecosystems.

The long-term legacy of plastic mass production.

Mismanaged plastic waste is transported via rivers or city drains into the ocean where it accumulates in coastal sediments, ocean gyres and the deep ocean. Plastic harms marine biota and may ultimately return to humans via the food chain. Private initiatives proposing to collect plastic from the sea and rivers have gained widespread attention, especially in the media. However, few of these methods are proven concepts and it remains unclear how effective they are. Here we estimate the amount of plastic in the global surface ocean to assess the long-term legacy of plastic mass production, calculate the time required to clean up the oceans with river barriers and clean up devices, and explore the fate of collected plastic waste. We find that the projected impact of both single and multiple clean up devices is very modest. A significant reduction of plastic debris in the ocean can be only achieved with collection at rivers or with a combination of river barriers and clean up devices. We also show that the incineration and production of plastic has a significant long-term effect on the global atmospheric carbon budget. We conclude that a combination of reduced plastic emissions and reinforced collection is the only way to rid the ocean of plastic waste.

Vulnerability of global coral reef habitat suitability to ocean warming, acidification and eutrophication.

Coral reefs are threatened by global and local stressors. Yet, reefs appear to respond differently to different environmental stressors. Using a global dataset of coral reef occurrence as a proxy for the long-term adaptation of corals to environmental conditions in combination with global environmental data, we show here how global (warming: sea surface temperature; acidification: aragonite saturation state, Ωarag ) and local (eutrophication: nitrate concentration, and phosphate concentration) stressors influence coral reef habitat suitability. We analyse the relative distance of coral communities to their regional environmental optima. In addition, we calculate the expected change of coral reef habitat suitability across the tropics in relation to an increase of 0.1°C in temperature, an increase of 0.02 µmol/L in nitrate, an increase of 0.01 µmol/L in phosphate and a decrease of 0.04 in Ωarag . Our findings reveal that only 6% of the reefs worldwide will be unaffected by local and global stressors and can thus act as temporary refugia. Local stressors, driven by nutrient increase, will affect 22% of the reefs worldwide, whereas global stressors will affect 11% of these reefs. The remaining 61% of the reefs will be simultaneously affected by local and global stressors. Appropriate wastewater treatments can mitigate local eutrophication and could increase areas of temporary refugia to 28%, allowing us to 'buy time', while international agreements are found to abate global stressors.

Density and composition of surface and buried plastic debris in beaches of Senegal.

Debris poses a series of problems to marine life and human well-being. However, estimates of density and characteristics of debris found on beach surfaces and buried in the sand are patchy on a global scale and absent for West Africa. Here we investigate the density of surface and buried debris accumulated in two beaches with contrasting levels of urbanisation in Senegal, West Africa. We also describe type, colour, weight, size, and possible source of the 1766 items collected. The average density of debris buried at a depth of 10 cm (48.75 items/m2) was 25 times higher than that observed at the surface (1.92 items/m2). Plastics accounted for 97.62% of the items. Plastic bags and clothing plastic were the most common types, whereas white and transparent were the most common colours. Most items originated from mixed sources, i.e. beach users and land-based sources (51.30%). Debris density in the urbanised site was 20 times higher than that in the non-urbanised site. Debris density can, therefore, be largely underestimated when sampling only on the beach surface. Our study provides the first findings for future research on beach debris in Senegal.

Confidence intervals and sample size for estimating the prevalence of plastic debris in seabird nests.

Evidence is accumulating about the impacts of plastics on marine life. The prevalence of plastics in seabird nests has been used as an indicator of levels of this pollutant in the ocean. However, the lack of a framework for defining sample sizes and errors associated with estimating the prevalence of plastic in nests prevents researchers from optimising time and reducing impacts of fieldwork. We present a method to determine the confidence intervals for the prevalence of debris in seabird nests and provide, for the first time, information on the prevalence of these items in nests of the Hartlaub's gull Larus hartlaubii, the African penguin Spheniscus demersus, the great white pelican Pelecanus onocrotalus, and the white-breasted cormorant Phalacrocorax lucidus in South Africa. The method, based on observations and resampling simulations and tested here for nests of 12 seabird species from 15 locations worldwide, allows for straightforward hypothesis testing. Appropriate sample sizes can be defined by combining this method with a Bayesian approach. We show that precise estimates of prevalence of debris in nests can be obtained by sampling around 250 nests. Smaller sample sizes can be useful for obtaining rough estimates. For the Hartlaub's gull, the African penguin, the great white pelican, and the white-breasted cormorant, debris were present in 0.75%, 3.00%, 6.41%, and 25.62% of the respective nests. Our approach will help researchers to determine errors associated with the prevalence of debris recorded in seabird nests and to optimise time and costs spent collecting data. It can also be applied to estimate confidence intervals and define sample sizes for assessing prevalence of plastic ingestion by any organism.

Interspecific variation of essential and non-essential trace elements in sympatric seabirds.

Chemical pollution is a growing issue for ocean ecosystems, threatening especially apex predators because they bioaccumulate persistent chemical pollutants such as non-essential trace elements. The trophic position is thus a key aspect when assessing the impacts of environmental pollution in marine organisms. Here we investigate the differences in the concentrations of essential (Cu, Cr, Se, and Zn) and non-essential elements (Hg, Al, As, Cd, and Sr), in muscular and hepatic tissues of four sympatric non-migratory seabirds (namely Sula leucogaster, Larus dominicanus, Fregata magnificens, and Thalasseus acuflavidus), which were found stranded along the Brazilian coast. The observed hepatic and muscular interspecific differences in elemental concentrations indicated that these sympatric seabirds are differently exposed to persistent contaminants circulating in the food web due to differences with respect to known feeding behaviours and prey preferences. Moreover, we found a consistent co-accumulative relationship between Se and Hg molar levels in liver tissues with mean Se:Hg molar ratio above 1. This relationship supports previous studies indicating that Se, via the formation of SeHg complexes, plays an essential biochemical role in the detoxification process of methyl mercury in seabirds. Our results suggest that feeding behaviour is an important factor associated to the interspecific differences of trace element concentrations in seabirds. However, traits other than feeding preferences (e.g. age) may also play an important role in the accumulation of these elements.

Phytoplankton size diversity and ecosystem function relationships across oceanic regions.

Trait diversity, a key component of biodiversity, mediates many essential ecosystem functions and services. However, the mechanisms behind such relationships at large spatial scales are not fully understood. Here we adopt the functional biogeography approach to investigate how the size composition of phytoplankton communities relates to primary production and export production along a broad latitudinal gradient. Using in situ phytoplankton size distribution data and a trait-based model, we find an increase in the average phytoplankton size, size diversity, primary production and export when moving from low to high latitudes. Our analysis indicates that the interplay between spatio-temporal heterogeneities in environmental conditions and a trade-off between the high affinity for nutrients of smaller cells and the ability to avoid predation by larger cells are the main mechanisms driving the observed patterns. Our results also suggest that variations in size diversity alone do not directly lead to changes in primary production and export. The trade-off thus introduces a feedback that influences the relationship between size diversity and ecosystem functions. These findings support the importance of environmentally mediated trade-offs as crucial mechanisms shaping biodiversity and ecosystem function relationships at large spatial scales.

OGUMI-A new mobile application to conduct common-pool resource experiments in continuous time.

OGUMI is an Android-based open source mobile application for conducting Common-Pool Resource Experiments, Choice Experiments, and Questionnaires in the field, in the laboratory, and online. A main feature of OGUMI is its capacity to capture real-time changes in human behaviour in response to a dynamically varying resource. OGUMI is simple (for example, likewise other existing software, it does not require expertise in behavioural game theory), stable, and extremely flexible with respect to the user-resource model running in the background. Here we present the motivation for the development of OGUMI and we discuss its main features with an example application.

Phytoplankton size-diversity mediates an emergent trade-off in ecosystem functioning for rare versus frequent disturbances.

Biodiversity is known to be an important determinant of ecosystem-level functions and processes. Although theories have been proposed to explain the generally positive relationship between, for example, biodiversity and productivity, it remains unclear which mechanisms underlie the observed variations in Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function (BEF) relationships. Using a continuous trait-distribution model for a phytoplankton community of gleaners competing with opportunists, and subjecting it to differing frequencies of disturbance, we find that species selection tends to enhance temporal species complementarity, which is maximised at high disturbance frequency and intermediate functional diversity. This leads to the emergence of a trade-off whereby increasing diversity tends to enhance short-term adaptive capacity under frequent disturbance while diminishing long-term productivity under infrequent disturbance. BEF relationships therefore depend on both disturbance frequency and the timescale of observation.

Stranding Events of Kogia Whales along the Brazilian Coast.

The genus Kogia, which comprises only two extant species, Kogia sima and Kogia breviceps, represents one of the least known groups of cetaceans in the global ocean. In some coastal regions, however, stranding events of these species have been relatively common over the last decades. Stranding provides the opportunity to investigate the biology of these cetaceans and to explore the epidemiological aspects associated with the mortality of the organisms found on the beach. A number of disturbances (including pelagic fisheries, chemical pollution, boat strikes, and noise pollution) have been confirmed to pose a particular threat to the Kogia species. However, no study has yet investigated potential relationships between environmental conditions and stranding events. Here we analyse how a collection of environmental, physical, and biological variables, such as wind, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and chlorophyll-a, correlate to Kogia stranding events along the Brazilian coast. The results of our statistical analyses suggest that K. sima is more likely found in warm tropical waters, which provide an explanation for the high frequency of stranding in northeastern Brazilian coast. In contrast, K. breviceps appears to have a preference for temperate and productive waters. Wind speed results to be also an important factor for predicting Kogia strandings in Brazilian coast. Additionally, literature information in combination with our own data and analyses of stomach contents confirms that oceanic cephalopods constitute the primary nutritional source of both Kogia species. By using the available information as a qualitative proxy for habitat preference and feeding ecology, our study provides a novel and comprehensive assessment of Kogia stranding data in relation to environmental conditions along the Brazilian coast.

The impact of Indonesian peatland degradation on downstream marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle.

Tropical peatlands are among the most space-efficient stores of carbon on Earth containing approximately 89 Gt C. Of this, 57 Gt (65%) are stored in Indonesian peatlands. Large-scale exploitation of land, including deforestation and drainage for the establishment of oil palm plantations, is changing the carbon balance of Indonesian peatlands, turning them from a natural sink to a source via outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere and leakage of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the coastal ocean. The impacts of this perturbation to the coastal environment and at the global scale are largely unknown. Here, we evaluate the downstream effects of released Indonesian peat carbon on coastal ecosystems and on the global carbon cycle. We use a biogeochemical box model in combination with novel and literature observations to investigate the impact of different carbon emission scenarios on the combined ocean-atmosphere system. The release of all carbon stored in the Indonesian peat pool, considered as a worst-case scenario, will increase atmospheric pCO2 by 8 ppm to 15 ppm within the next 200 years. The expected impact on the Java Sea ecosystems is most significant on the short term (over a few hundred years) and is characterized by an increase of 3.3% in phytoplankton, 32% in seagrass biomass, and 5% decrease in coral biomass. On the long term, however, the coastal ecosystems will recover to reach near pre-excursion conditions. Our results suggest that the ultimate fate of the peat carbon is in the deep ocean with 69% of it landing in the deep DIC pool after 1000 years, but the effects on the global ocean carbonate chemistry will be marginal.

Suitable environmental ranges for potential coral reef habitats in the tropical ocean.

Coral reefs are found within a limited range of environmental conditions or tolerance limits. Estimating these limits is a critical prerequisite for understanding the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of coral reefs. Here we used the diagnostic model ReefHab to determine the current environmental tolerance limits for coral reefs and the global distribution of potential coral reef habitats as a function of six factors: temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, aragonite saturation state, and light. To determine these tolerance limits, we extracted maximum and minimum values of all environmental variables in corresponding locations where coral reefs are present. We found that the global, annually averaged tolerance limits for coral reefs are 21.7-29.6 °C for temperature, 28.7-40.4 psu for salinity, 4.51 µmol L-1 for nitrate, 0.63 µmol L-1 for phosphate, and 2.82 for aragonite saturation state. The averaged minimum light intensity in coral reefs is 450 µmol photons m-2 s-1. The global area of potential reef habitats calculated by the model is 330.5 × 103 km2. Compared with previous studies, the tolerance limits for temperature, salinity, and nutrients have not changed much, whereas the minimum value of aragonite saturation in coral reef waters has decreased from 3.28 to 2.82. The potential reef habitat area calculated with ReefHab is about 121×103 km2 larger than the area estimated from the charted reefs, suggesting that the growth potential of coral reefs is higher than currently observed.

Severity of ocean acidification following the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact.

Most paleo-episodes of ocean acidification (OA) were either too slow or too small to be instructive in predicting near-future impacts. The end-Cretaceous event (66 Mya) is intriguing in this regard, both because of its rapid onset and also because many pelagic calcifying species (including 100% of ammonites and more than 90% of calcareous nannoplankton and foraminifera) went extinct at this time. Here we evaluate whether extinction-level OA could feasibly have been produced by the asteroid impact. Carbon cycle box models were used to estimate OA consequences of (i) vaporization of up to 60 × 10(15) mol of sulfur from gypsum rocks at the point of impact; (ii) generation of up to 5 × 10(15) mol of NOx by the impact pressure wave and other sources; (iii) release of up to 6,500 Pg C as CO2 from vaporization of carbonate rocks, wildfires, and soil carbon decay; and (iv) ocean overturn bringing high-CO2 water to the surface. We find that the acidification produced by most processes is too weak to explain calcifier extinctions. Sulfuric acid additions could have made the surface ocean extremely undersaturated (Ωcalcite <0.5), but only if they reached the ocean very rapidly (over a few days) and if the quantity added was at the top end of literature estimates. We therefore conclude that severe ocean acidification might have been, but most likely was not, responsible for the great extinctions of planktonic calcifiers and ammonites at the end of the Cretaceous.

Assessment of trace elements, POPs, (210)Po and stable isotopes ((15)N and (13)C) in a rare filter-feeding shark: The megamouth.

With less than 60 records being reported worldwide, the megamouth (Megachasma pelagios) is today one of the least known shark species inhabiting our oceans. Therefore, information concerning the biology and ecology of this enigmatic organism is very scarce and limited to feeding behaviour and preferred habitat. The present work reports new data on the concentrations of trace elements, organic mercury, POPs and (210)Po in hepatic and muscular tissues of a specimen found stranded in the southeastern coast of Brazil. Additionally, we provide new evidence based on stable isotope analysis (δ(15)N and δ(13)C) confirming the preference for the pelagic habitat and the zooplanktivorous feeding behaviour of the megamouth. These results are consistent with the low concentrations of organic pollutant compounds and other elements measured in our samples.

Mechanisms shaping size structure and functional diversity of phytoplankton communities in the ocean.

The factors regulating phytoplankton community composition play a crucial role in structuring aquatic food webs. However, consensus is still lacking about the mechanisms underlying the observed biogeographical differences in cell size composition of phytoplankton communities. Here we use a trait-based model to disentangle these mechanisms in two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean. In our model, the phytoplankton community can self-assemble based on a trade-off emerging from relationships between cell size and (1) nutrient uptake, (2) zooplankton grazing, and (3) phytoplankton sinking. Grazing 'pushes' the community towards larger cell sizes, whereas nutrient uptake and sinking 'pull' the community towards smaller cell sizes. We find that the stable environmental conditions of the tropics strongly balance these forces leading to persistently small cell sizes and reduced size diversity. In contrast, the seasonality of the temperate region causes the community to regularly reorganize via shifts in species composition and to exhibit, on average, bigger cell sizes and higher size diversity than in the tropics. Our results raise the importance of environmental variability as a key structuring mechanism of plankton communities in the ocean and call for a reassessment of the current understanding of phytoplankton diversity patterns across latitudinal gradients.

Human adaptive behavior in common pool resource systems.

Overexploitation of common-pool resources, resulting from uncooperative harvest behavior, is a major problem in many social-ecological systems. Feedbacks between user behavior and resource productivity induce non-linear dynamics in the harvest and the resource stock that complicate the understanding and the prediction of the co-evolutionary system. With an adaptive model constrained by data from a behavioral economic experiment, we show that users' expectations of future pay-offs vary as a result of the previous harvest experience, the time-horizon, and the ability to communicate. In our model, harvest behavior is a trait that adjusts to continuously changing potential returns according to a trade-off between the users' current harvest and the discounted future productivity of the resource. Given a maximum discount factor, which quantifies the users' perception of future pay-offs, the temporal dynamics of harvest behavior and ecological resource can be predicted. Our results reveal a non-linear relation between the previous harvest and current discount rates, which is most sensitive around a reference harvest level. While higher than expected returns resulting from cooperative harvesting in the past increase the importance of future resource productivity and foster sustainability, harvests below the reference level lead to a downward spiral of increasing overexploitation and disappointing returns.

Eocene/Oligocene ocean de-acidification linked to Antarctic glaciation by sea-level fall.

One of the most dramatic perturbations to the Earth system during the past 100 million years was the rapid onset of Antarctic glaciation near the Eocene/Oligocene epoch boundary (approximately 34 million years ago). This climate transition was accompanied by a deepening of the calcite compensation depth--the ocean depth at which the rate of calcium carbonate input from surface waters equals the rate of dissolution. Changes in the global carbon cycle, rather than changes in continental configuration, have recently been proposed as the most likely root cause of Antarctic glaciation, but the mechanism linking glaciation to the deepening of calcite compensation depth remains unclear. Here we use a global biogeochemical box model to test competing hypotheses put forward to explain the Eocene/Oligocene transition. We find that, of the candidate hypotheses, only shelf to deep sea carbonate partitioning is capable of explaining the observed changes in both carbon isotope composition and calcium carbonate accumulation at the sea floor. In our simulations, glacioeustatic sea-level fall associated with the growth of Antarctic ice sheets permanently reduces global calcium carbonate accumulation on the continental shelves, leading to an increase in pelagic burial via permanent deepening of the calcite compensation depth. At the same time, fresh limestones are exposed to erosion, thus temporarily increasing global river inputs of dissolved carbonate and increasing seawater delta13C. Our work sheds new light on the mechanisms linking glaciation and ocean acidity change across arguably the most important climate transition of the Cenozoic era.