Developing and Validating an Individualized Clinical Prediction Model to Forecast Psychotic Recurrence in Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorders: Electronic Health Record Cohort Study.

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPDs) include short-lived psychotic episodes with a high probability of developing psychotic recurrences. Clinical care for ATPD is currently limited by the inability to predict outcomes. Real-world electronic health record (EHR)-based retrospective cohort study STROBE/RECORD compliant included all individuals accessing the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust between 2006 and 2017 and receiving a first diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10). After imputing missing data, stepwise and LASSO Cox regression methods employing a priori predictors (n = 23) were compared to develop and internally validate an individualized risk prediction model to forecast the risk of psychotic recurrences following TRIPOD guidelines. The primary outcome was prognostic accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]). 3018 ATPD individuals were included (average age = 33.75 years, 52.7% females). Over follow-up (average 1042 ± 1011 days, up to 8 years) there were 1160 psychotic recurrences (events). Stepwise (n = 12 predictors) and LASSO (n = 17 predictors) regression methods yielded comparable prognostic accuracy, with an events per variable ratio >100 for both models. Both models showed an internally validated adequate prognostic accuracy from 4 years follow-up (AUC 0.70 for both models) and good calibration. A refined model was adapted in view of the new ICD-11 criteria on 307 subjects with polymorphic ATPD, showing fair prognostic accuracy at 4 years (AUC: stepwise 0.68; LASSO 0.70). This study presents the first clinically based prediction model internally validated to adequately predict long-term psychotic recurrence in individuals with ATPD. The model can be automatable in EHRs, supporting further external validations and refinements to improve its prognostic accuracy.

Non-Functional Trace Amine-Associated Receptor 1 Variants in Patients With Mental Disorders.

Background: The G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) is expressed across brain areas involved in emotions, reward and cognition, and modulates monoaminergic and glutamatergic neurotransmissions. TAAR1 is stimulated with nanomolar affinity by 3-iodothyronamine (T1AM), an endogenous messenger considered a novel branch of thyroid hormone signaling. The human gene for TAAR1 maps to locus 6q23, within a region associated with major mental disorders. Materials and Methods: We screened a cohort of patients with major mental disorders (n = 104) and a group of healthy controls (n = 130) for TAAR1 variants. HEK293 cells were transiently transfected with: i) wild-type TAAR1 and ii) mutated TAAR1, either in homozygous or heterozygous state. Cell surface expression and Gs/adenylyl cyclase activation upon administration of ß-phenylethylamine (PEA), T1AM, and RO5166017, were assessed. Results: We detected 13 missense variants in TAAR1 coding region, with a significant enrichment in patients as compared to healthy controls (11 vs. 1, 1 variant in both groups, p < 0.01). In silico analysis identified four dysfunctional variants, all in patients. Three of these-R23C, Y131C, and C263R-were functionally characterized. In cells co-transfected with wild-type and mutated TAAR1, we observed a significant reduction of cell surface expression. In heterozygosity, the three TAAR1 variants substantially dampened Gs signaling in response to PEA, and, more robustly, to T1AM. Co-stimulation with PEA and RO5166017 did not yield any improvement in Gs signaling. R23C, Y131C, and C263R are rare in the general population and map in functionally important highly conserved positions across TAAR1 orthologous and paralogous genes. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that disruptions of TAAR1 activity may be relevant to the pathophysiology of mental disorders, thereby providing a promising target for novel psychopharmacological interventions.

Unmet needs in patients with brief psychotic disorders: Too ill for clinical high risk services and not ill enough for first episode services.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPDs) are by definition remitting, but have a high risk of developing persistent psychoses, resembling a subgroup of individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Their pathways to care, treatment offered and long-term clinical outcomes beyond risk to psychosis are unexplored. We conducted an electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study including patients with ATPDs within the SLaM NHS Trust and followed-up to 8 years. METHODS: A total of 2561 ATPDs were included in the study. A minority were detected (8%) and treated (18%) by Early Intervention services (EIS) and none by CHR-P services. Patients were offered a clinical follow-up of 350.40 ± 589.90 days. The cumulative incidence of discharges was 40% at 3 months, 60% at 1 year, 69% at 2 years, 77% at 4 years, and 82% at 8 years. Treatment was heterogeneous: the majority of patients received antipsychotics (up to 52%), only a tiny minority psychotherapy (up to 8%). RESULTS: Over follow-up, 32.88% and 28.54% of ATPDS received at least one mental health hospitalization or one compulsory hospital admission under the Mental Health Act, respectively. The mean number of days spent in psychiatric hospital was 66.39 ± 239.44 days. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of ATPDs are not detected/treated by EIS or CHR-P services, receive heterogeneous treatments and short-term clinical follow-up. ATPDs have a high risk of developing severe clinical outcomes beyond persistent psychotic disorders and unmet clinical needs that are not targeted by current mental health services.

Long term outcomes of acute and transient psychotic disorders: The missed opportunity of preventive interventions.

BACKGROUND: Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD) are characterized by an acute onset and a remitting course, and overlap with subgroups of the clinical high-risk state for psychosis. The long-term course and outcomes of ATPD are not completely clear. METHODS: Electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study, including all patients who received a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service Trust, between 1 st April 2006 and 15th June 2017. The primary outcome was risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders, defined as the development of any ICD-10 diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders. Cumulative risk of psychosis onset was estimated through Kaplan-Meier failure functions (non-competing risks) and Greenwood confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 3074 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within SLaM were included. The mean follow-up was 1495 days. After 8-year, 1883 cases (61.26%) retained the index diagnosis of ATPD; the remaining developed psychosis. The cumulative incidence (Kaplan-Meier failure function) of risk of developing any ICD-10 non-organic psychotic disorder was 16.10% at 1-year (95%CI 14.83-17.47%), 28.41% at 2-year (95%CI 26.80-30.09%), 33.96% at 3-year (95% CI 32.25-35.75%), 36.85% at 4-year (95%CI 35.07-38.69%), 40.99% at 5-year (95% CI 39.12-42.92%), 42.58% at 6-year (95%CI 40.67-44.55%), 44.65% at 7-year (95% CI 42.66-46.69%), and 46.25% at 8-year (95% CI 44.17-48.37%). The cumulative risk of schizophrenia-spectrum disorder at 8-year was 36.14% (95% CI 34.09-38.27%). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with ATPD have a very high risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders and may benefit from early detection and preventive treatments to improve their outcomes.