Cooling and Contraction of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere From 2002 to 2021.

We examine the thermal structure of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using observations from 2002 through 2021 from the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. These observations show that the MLT has significantly cooled and contracted between the years 2002 and 2019 (the year of the most recent solar minimum) due to a combination of a decline in the intensity of the 11-year solar cycle and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2.) During this time the thickness of atmosphere between the 1  and 10-4 hPa pressure surfaces (approximately 48 and 105 km) has contracted by 1,333 m, of which 342 m is attributed to increasing CO2. All other pressure surfaces in the MLT have similarly contracted. We further postulate that the MLT in the two most recent solar minima (2008-2009 and 2019-2020) was very likely the coldest and thinnest since the beginning of the Industrial Age. The sensitivity of the MLT to a doubling of CO2 is shown to be -7.5 K based on observed trends in temperature and growth rates of CO2. Colder temperatures observed at 10-4 hPa in 2019 than in the prior solar minimum in 2009 may be due to a decrease of 5% in solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge band spectral region (175-200 nm).

Advances in space radiation physics and transport at NASA.

The space radiation environment is a complex mixture of particle types and energies originating from sources inside and outside of the galaxy. These environments may be modified by the heliospheric and geomagnetic conditions as well as planetary bodies and vehicle or habitat mass shielding. In low Earth orbit (LEO), the geomagnetic field deflects a portion of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and all but the most intense solar particle events (SPE). There are also dynamic belts of trapped electrons and protons with low to medium energy and intense particle count rates. In deep space, the GCR exposure is more severe than in LEO and varies inversely with solar activity. Unpredictable solar storms also present an acute risk to astronauts if adequate shielding is not provided. Near planetary surfaces such as the Earth, moon or Mars, secondary particles are produced when the ambient deep space radiation environment interacts with these surfaces and/or atmospheres. These secondary particles further complicate the local radiation environment and modify the associated health risks. Characterizing the radiation fields in this vast array of scenarios and environments is a challenging task and is currently accomplished with a combination of computational models and dosimetry. The computational tools include models for the ambient space radiation environment, mass shielding geometry, and atomic and nuclear interaction parameters. These models are then coupled to a radiation transport code to describe the radiation field at the location of interest within a vehicle or habitat. Many new advances in these models have been made in the last decade, and the present review article focuses on the progress and contributions made by workers and collaborators at NASA Langley Research Center in the same time frame. Although great progress has been made, and models continue to improve, significant gaps remain and are discussed in the context of planned future missions. Of particular interest is the juxtaposition of various review committee findings regarding the accuracy and gaps of combined space radiation environment, physics, and transport models with the progress achieved over the past decade. While current models are now fully capable of characterizing radiation environments in the broad range of forecasted mission scenarios, it should be remembered that uncertainties still remain and need to be addressed.

The global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere from 1947 to 2016 and implications for solar variability.

We present an empirical model of the global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere over the past 70 years. The F 10.7, Ap, and Dst indices are used in linear regression fits to the 14.5 year time series of radiative cooling by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the TIMED satellite. Databases of these indices are used to develop the radiative cooling time series from 1947. No consistent relation between the occurrence of peak sunspot number and peak infrared cooling is found over the past six solar cycles. The total infrared energy radiated by the thermosphere, integrated over a solar cycle, is nearly constant over five complete solar cycles studied. This is a direct consequence of the geoeffective solar energy also being nearly constant over the same intervals. These results provide a new metric for assessing the terrestrial context of the long-term record of solar-related indices.

Overview of the Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) flight mission.

The NASA Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X) stratospheric balloon flight mission addresses the need to reduce the uncertainty in predicting human exposure to cosmic radiation in the aircraft environment. Measurements were taken that characterize the dosimetric properties of cosmic ray primaries, the ultimate source of aviation radiation exposure, and the cosmic ray secondary radiations that are produced and transported to aviation altitudes. In addition, radiation detectors were flown to assess their potential application to long-term, continuous monitoring of the aircraft radiation environment. RaD-X was successfully launched from Fort Sumner, New Mexico (34.5°N, 104.2°W), on 25 September 2015. Over 18 h of science data were obtained from a total of four different type dosimeters at altitudes above 20 km. The RaD-X flight mission was supported by laboratory radiation exposure testing of the balloon flight dosimeters and also by coordinated radiation measurements taken on ER-2 and commercial aircraft. This paper provides the science background and motivation for the RaD-X flight mission, a brief description of the balloon flight profile and the supporting aircraft flights, and a summary of the articles included in the RaD-X special collection and their contributions to the science goals of the RaD-X mission.

A combined solar and geomagnetic index for thermospheric climate.

Infrared radiation from nitric oxide (NO) at 5.3 µm is a primary mechanism by which the thermosphere cools to space. The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite has been measuring thermospheric cooling by NO for over 13 years. In this letter we show that the SABER time series of globally integrated infrared power (watts) radiated by NO can be replicated accurately by a multiple linear regression fit using the F10.7, Ap, and Dst indices. This allows reconstruction of the NO power time series back nearly 70 years with extant databases of these indices. The relative roles of solar ultraviolet and geomagnetic processes in determining the NO cooling are derived and shown to vary significantly over the solar cycle. The NO power is a fundamental integral constraint on the thermospheric climate, and the time series presented here can be used to test upper atmosphere models over seven different solar cycles. KEY POINTS: F10.7, Ap, and Dst replicate time series of radiative cooling by nitric oxide Quantified relative roles of solar irradiance, geomagnetism in radiative cooling Establish a new index and extend record of thermospheric cooling back 70 years.

Miscarriage among flight attendants.

BACKGROUND: Cosmic radiation and circadian disruption are potential reproductive hazards for flight attendants. METHODS: Flight attendants from 3 US airlines in 3 cities were interviewed for pregnancy histories and lifestyle, medical, and occupational covariates. We assessed cosmic radiation and circadian disruption from company records of 2 million individual flights. Using Cox regression models, we compared respondents (1) by levels of flight exposures and (2) to teachers from the same cities, to evaluate whether these exposures were associated with miscarriage. RESULTS: Of 2654 women interviewed (2273 flight attendants and 381 teachers), 958 pregnancies among 764 women met study criteria. A hypothetical pregnant flight attendant with median first-trimester exposures flew 130 hours in 53 flight segments, crossed 34 time zones, and flew 15 hours during her home-base sleep hours (10 pm-8 am), incurring 0.13 mGy absorbed dose (0.36 mSv effective dose) of cosmic radiation. About 2% of flight attendant pregnancies were likely exposed to a solar particle event, but doses varied widely. Analyses suggested that cosmic radiation exposure of 0.1 mGy or more may be associated with increased risk of miscarriage in weeks 9-13 (odds ratio = 1.7 [95% confidence interval = 0.95-3.2]). Risk of a first-trimester miscarriage with 15 hours or more of flying during home-base sleep hours was increased (1.5 [1.1-2.2]), as was risk with high physical job demands (2.5 [1.5-4.2]). Miscarriage risk was not increased among flight attendants compared with teachers. CONCLUSIONS: Miscarriage was associated with flight attendant work during sleep hours and high physical job demands and may be associated with cosmic radiation exposure.

Flight attendant radiation dose from solar particle events.

INTRODUCTION: Research has suggested that work as a flight attendant may be related to increased risk for reproductive health effects. Air cabin exposures that may influence reproductive health include radiation dose from galactic cosmic radiation and solar particle events. This paper describes the assessment of radiation dose accrued during solar particle events as part of a reproductive health study of flight attendants. METHODS: Solar storm data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center list of solar proton events affecting the Earth environment to ascertain storms relevant to the two study periods (1992-1996 and 1999-2001). Radiation dose from exposure to solar energetic particles was estimated using the NAIRAS model in conjunction with galactic cosmic radiation dose calculated using the CARI-6P computer program. RESULTS: Seven solar particle events were determined to have potential for significant radiation exposure, two in the first study period and five in the second study period, and over-lapped with 24,807 flight segments. Absorbed (and effective) flight segment doses averaged 6.5 µGy (18 µSv) and 3.1 µGy (8.3 µSv) for the first and second study periods, respectively. Maximum doses were as high as 440 µGy (1.2 mSv) and 20 flight segments had doses greater than 190 µGy (0.5 mSv). DISCUSSION: During solar particle events, a pregnant flight attendant could potentially exceed the equivalent dose limit to the conceptus of 0.5 mSv in a month recommended by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.

Influence of solar variability on the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere from 2002 to 2014.

Infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by carbon dioxide (CO2, 15 µm) and by nitric oxide (NO, 5.3 µm) has been observed for 12 years by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. For the first time we present a record of the two most important thermospheric infrared cooling agents over a complete solar cycle. SABER has documented dramatic variability in the radiative cooling on time scales ranging from days to the 11 year solar cycle. Deep minima in global mean vertical profiles of radiative cooling are observed in 2008-2009. Current solar maximum conditions, evidenced in the rates of radiative cooling, are substantially weaker than prior maximum conditions in 2002-2003. The observed changes in thermospheric cooling correlate well with changes in solar ultraviolet irradiance and geomagnetic activity during the prior maximum conditions. NO and CO2 combine to emit 7 × 1018 more Joules annually at solar maximum than at solar minimum. KEY POINTS: First record of thermospheric IR cooling rates over a complete solar cycleIR cooling in current solar maximum conditions much weaker than prior maximumVariability in thermospheric IR cooling observed on scale of days to 11 years.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

A procedure for benchmarking laboratory exposures with 1 A GeV iron ions.

A new version of the HZETRN code capable of simulating HZE ions with either laboratory or space boundary conditions is under development. The computational model consists of combinations of physical perturbation expansions based on the scales of atomic interaction, multiple scattering, and nuclear reactive processes with use of asymptotic/Neumann expansions with non-perturbative corrections. The code contains energy loss with straggling, nuclear attenuation, nuclear fragmentation with energy dispersion and downshifts, and off-axis dispersion with multiple scattering under preparation. The present benchmark is for a broad directed beam for 1 A GeV iron ion beams with 2 A MeV width and four targets of polyethylene, polymethyl metachrylate, aluminum, and lead of varying thickness from 5 to 30 g/cm2. The benchmark quantities will be dose, track averaged LET, dose averaged LET, fraction of iron ion remaining, and fragment energy spectra after 23 g/cm2 of polymethyl metachrylate.