Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley.

In our rapidly urbanizing world, many hazard-prone regions face significant challenges regarding risk-informed urban development. This study addresses this issue by investigating evolving spatial interactions between natural hazards, ever-increasing urban areas, and social vulnerability in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The methodology considers: (1) the characterization of flood hazard and liquefaction susceptibility using pre-existing global models; (2) the simulation of future urban built-up areas using the cellular-automata SLEUTH model; and (3) the assessment of social vulnerability, using a composite index tailored for the case-study area. Results show that built-up areas in Kathmandu Valley will increase to 352 km2 by 2050, effectively doubling the equivalent 2018 figure. The most socially vulnerable villages will account for 29% of built-up areas in 2050, 11% more than current levels. Built-up areas in the 100-year and 1000-year return period floodplains will respectively increase from 38 km2 and 49 km2 today to 83 km2 and 108 km2 in 2050. Additionally, built-up areas in liquefaction-susceptible zones will expand by 13 km2 to 47 km2. This study illustrates how, where, and to which extent risks from natural hazards can evolve in socially vulnerable regions. Ultimately, it emphasizes an urgent need to implement effective policy measures for reducing tomorrow's natural-hazard risks.

Environmental impacts of the life cycle of alluvial gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon rainforest.

Alluvial gold mining activities in the Peruvian Amazon rainforest are responsible for mercury emissions and deforestation. To understand related environmental impacts, specifically toxicity and climate change, this study uses Life Cycle Assessment methodology. Four predominant extraction systems were selected and modelled and three scenarios that reflect currently available gold recovery systems were modelled: amalgamation, amalgamation with mercury recovery through retort system and gravimetric tables. The USEtox and IPCC life cycle impact assessment methods were used to assess the environmental impacts in term of human toxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity and climate change. Results show that for all systems, human toxicity values are governed by mercury emissions in gold recovery activities (ca. 80%). However, the use of retort significantly lowers these impacts (ca. 90%). Machines and diesel use for ore extraction and freighting activities drive freshwater ecotoxicity. Moreover, deforestation has a major contribution on the environmental impacts related to climate change. However, these impacts are dependent on the type of extraction system. Although human toxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity and climate change are frequently studied separately, a direct relationship between them has been identified in this system. Finally, beyond the environmental burdens related to alluvial gold mining, there are impacts affecting the social, cultural, and economic dimensions that will need to be analyzed to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the system.