Impact of Covid-19 on farming systems in Europe through the lens of resilience thinking.

Context: Resilience is the ability to deal with shocks and stresses, including the unknown and previously unimaginable, such as the Covid-19 crisis. Objective: This paper assesses (i) how different farming systems were exposed to the crisis, (ii) which resilience capacities were revealed and (iii) how resilience was enabled or constrained by the farming systems' social and institutional environment. Methods: The 11 farming systems included have been analysed since 2017. This allows a comparison of pre-Covid-19 findings and the Covid-19 crisis. Pre-Covid findings are from the SURE-Farm systematic sustainability and resilience assessment. For Covid-19 a special data collection was carried out during the early stage of lockdowns. Results and conclusions: Our case studies found limited impact of Covid-19 on the production and delivery of food and other agricultural products. This was due to either little exposure or the agile activation of robustness capacities of the farming systems in combination with an enabling institutional environment. Revealed capacities were mainly based on already existing connectedness among farmers and more broadly in value chains. Across cases, the experience of the crisis triggered reflexivity about the operation of the farming systems. Recurring topics were the need for shorter chains, more fairness towards farmers, and less dependence on migrant workers. However, actors in the farming systems and the enabling environment generally focused on the immediate issues and gave little real consideration to long-term implications and challenges. Hence, adaptive or transformative capacities were much less on display than coping capacities. The comparison with pre-Covid findings mostly showed similarities. If challenges, such as shortage of labour, already loomed before, they persisted during the crisis. Furthermore, the eminent role of resilience attributes was confirmed. In cases with high connectedness and diversity we found that these system characteristics contributed significantly to dealing with the crisis. Also the focus on coping capacities was already visible before the crisis. We are not sure yet whether the focus on short-term robustness just reflects the higher visibility and urgency of shocks compared to slow processes that undermine or threaten important system functions, or whether they betray an imbalance in resilience capacities at the expense of adaptability and transformability. Significance: Our analysis indicates that if transformations are required, e.g. to respond to concerns about transnational value chains and future pandemics from zoonosis, the transformative capacity of many farming systems needs to be actively enhanced through an enabling environment.

Considering milk price volatility for investment decisions on the farm level after European milk quota abolition.

After the abolition of the milk quota in the European Union, milk price volatility is expected to increase because of the liberalized market conditions. At the same time, investment appraisal methods have not been updated to capture the increased uncertainty. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to assess the effect of changing price volatility due to quota abolition on investment decisions at the dairy farm level. To contribute to the objective and to approximate milk price volatility after the European milk quota abolition, the risk-adjusted discount rate for risk-averse dairy farmers is derived based on the milk price volatility of a milk price series from New Zealand. New Zealand dairy farmers have faced liberalized market conditions for more than 3 decades. Afterward, the risk-adjusted discount rate is applied to appraise milking technology investments for an average German dairy farmer. The results show that it is still more reasonable to invest in a parlor system than an automated milking system, although the net present value of the parlor system investment varies between €191,723 for risk-neutral dairy farmers and €100,094 for modestly risk-averse dairy farmers. For the automated milking system investment, the same calculations lead to €132,702 for risk-neutral dairy farmers and €31,635 for risk-averse dairy farmers. According to higher levels of milk price volatility after milk quota abolition, the reduction of the expected utility of the underlying investment decision for modest risk-averse dairy farmers is almost similar to a milk price decrease of 5% for risk-neutral dairy farmers. Therefore, the findings urge finance providers and extension services to consider the change of increasing milk price volatility after dairy quota abolition when giving dairy farmers financial advice. The risk-adjusted discount rate is a flexible tool to do so.

Animal Board Invited Review: Comparing conventional and organic livestock production systems on different aspects of sustainability.

To sustainably contribute to food security of a growing and richer world population, livestock production systems are challenged to increase production levels while reducing environmental impact, being economically viable, and socially responsible. Knowledge about the sustainability performance of current livestock production systems may help to formulate strategies for future systems. Our study provides a systematic overview of differences between conventional and organic livestock production systems on a broad range of sustainability aspects and animal species available in peer-reviewed literature. Systems were compared on economy, productivity, environmental impact, animal welfare and public health. The review was limited to dairy cattle, beef cattle, pigs, broilers and laying hens, and to Europe, North America and New Zealand. Results per indicators are presented as in the articles without performing additional calculations. Out of 4171 initial search hits, 179 articles were analysed. Studies varied widely in indicators, research design, sample size and location and context. Quite some studies used small samples. No study analysed all aspects of sustainability simultaneously. Conventional systems had lower labour requirements per unit product, lower income risk per animal, higher production per animal per time unit, higher reproduction numbers, lower feed conversion ratio, lower land use, generally lower acidification and eutrophication potential per unit product, equal or better udder health for cows and equal or lower microbiological contamination. Organic systems had higher income per animal or full time employee, lower impact on biodiversity, lower eutrophication and acidification potential per unit land, equal or lower likelihood of antibiotic resistance in bacteria and higher beneficial fatty acid levels in cow milk. For most sustainability aspects, sometimes conventional and sometimes organic systems performed better, except for productivity, which was consistently higher in conventional systems. For many aspects and animal species, more data are needed to conclude on a difference between organic and conventional livestock production systems.

A multi-level hierarchic Markov process with Bayesian updating for herd optimization and simulation in dairy cattle.

Herd optimization models that determine economically optimal insemination and replacement decisions are valuable research tools to study various aspects of farming systems. The aim of this study was to develop a herd optimization and simulation model for dairy cattle. The model determines economically optimal insemination and replacement decisions for individual cows and simulates whole-herd results that follow from optimal decisions. The optimization problem was formulated as a multi-level hierarchic Markov process, and a state space model with Bayesian updating was applied to model variation in milk yield. Methodological developments were incorporated in 2 main aspects. First, we introduced an additional level to the model hierarchy to obtain a more tractable and efficient structure. Second, we included a recently developed cattle feed intake model. In addition to methodological developments, new parameters were used in the state space model and other biological functions. Results were generated for Dutch farming conditions, and outcomes were in line with actual herd performance in the Netherlands. Optimal culling decisions were sensitive to variation in milk yield but insensitive to energy requirements for maintenance and feed intake capacity. We anticipate that the model will be applied in research and extension.

Selection of critical factors for identifying emerging food safety risks in dynamic food production chains.

A pro-active emerging risk identification system starts with the selection of critical factors related to the occurrence of emerging hazards. This paper describes a method to derive the most important factors in dynamic production chains starting from a gross list of critical factors. The method comprised the semi-quantitative evaluation of the critical factors for a relatively novel product on the Dutch market and a related traditional product. This method was tested in an expert study with three case studies. The use of group discussion followed by individual ranking in an expert study proved to be a powerful tool in identifying the most important factors for each case. Human behaviour (either producers' behaviour or human knowledge) was the most important factor for all three cases. The expert study showed that further generalization of critical factors based on product characteristics may be possible.

Effects of milk fat composition, DGAT1, and SCD1 on fertility traits in Dutch Holstein cattle.

Recently, selective breeding was proposed as a means of changing the fatty acid composition of milk to improve its nutritional quality. Before implementing such breeding objectives, effects on other economically important traits should be investigated. The objectives of this study were to examine 1) the effect of milk fat composition, and 2) the effect of polymorphisms of DGAT1 and SCD1 genes on female fertility in commercial Dutch Holstein-Friesian cattle. Data on 1,745 first-lactation cows were analyzed by fitting linear mixed models. We found that higher concentrations of trans fatty acids within total milk fat negatively affected reproductive performance. Furthermore, results suggested a potential effect of the DGAT1 polymorphism on nonreturn rates for insemination 28 and 56 d after the first service. Our results can be used to assess the correlated effects of breeding for improved milk fat composition on reproduction, thereby allowing for better evaluation of breeding programs before implementation.

Improving food safety within the dairy chain: an application of conjoint analysis.

This study determined the relative importance of attributes of food safety improvement in the production chain of fluid pasteurized milk. The chain was divided into 4 blocks: "feed" (compound feed production and its transport), "farm" (dairy farm), "dairy processing" (transport and processing of raw milk, delivery of pasteurized milk), and "consumer" (retailer/catering establishment and pasteurized milk consumption). The concept of food safety improvement focused on 2 main groups of hazards: chemical (antibiotics and dioxin) and microbiological (Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Mycobacterium paratuberculosis, and Staphylococcus aureus). Adaptive conjoint analysis was used to investigate food safety experts' perceptions of the attributes' importance. Preference data from individual experts (n = 24) on 101 attributes along the chain were collected in a computer-interactive mode. Experts perceived the attributes from the "feed" and "farm" blocks as being more vital for controlling the chemical hazards; whereas the attributes from the "farm" and "dairy processing" were considered more vital for controlling the microbiological hazards. For the chemical hazards, "identification of treated cows" and "quality assurance system of compound feed manufacturers" were considered the most important attributes. For the microbiological hazards, these were "manure supply source" and "action in salmonellosis and M. paratuberculosis cases". The rather high importance of attributes relating to quality assurance and traceability systems of the chain participants indicates that participants look for food safety assurance from the preceding participants. This information has substantial decision-making implications for private businesses along the chain and for the government regarding the food safety improvement of fluid pasteurized milk.

Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector.

A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe hail and windstorms, were used as input in a stochastic simulation model. Applications of the stochastic simulation model were illustrated under alternative risk conditions. A comparison was made between the current structure of greenhouse production and the expected structure in the next decade that differs with respect to the spatial distribution and average size.

Monte Carlo simulation of virus introduction into the Netherlands.

In order to improve the understanding of the risk of introducing classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Netherlands, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed. The model, VIRiS (Virus Introduction Risk Simulation model) describes virus introduction into the Netherlands from outbreaks in other European countries. VIRiS is aimed at supporting decision makers involved in disease prevention. The model is based on historical and experimental data, supplemented with expert judgement, and provides the expected number, location and cause of primary outbreaks in the Netherlands. The paper gives a detailed description of the design and behaviour of VIRiS. The default outcomes of VIRiS show that in the current situation, the western and northern regions of the Netherlands are most prone to outbreaks of CSF and FMD. Most outbreaks originate from the countries neighbouring the Netherlands and the countries of southern Europe. Several alternative prevention strategies were evaluated using a combination of the VIRiS model and models describing the spread and economic consequences of outbreaks. A considerable financial window is available for measures aimed at speeding up the detection of epidemics in countries from which a Dutch outbreak may originate. Complete elimination of the risk associated with the risk factor 'returning trucks' reduces the annual losses due to FMD and CSF epidemics by approximately US$ 9 million. The approach is general and could also be applied to other diseases and countries.

The involvement of the agriculture industry and government in animal disease emergencies and the funding of compensation in western Europe.

In Western Europe, the control and eradication of contagious animal diseases have always been subject to government legislation. In the event of an outbreak, the principal policy is 'stamping-out' (depopulation) of the infected herd. The owner of the herd is usually awarded financial compensation. The authors provide an overview of the involvement of the agriculture industry and government in animal disease emergencies and the funding of compensation in Western Europe. In particular, developments within the European Union are described, as illustrated by a case study in the Netherlands. The economic consequences of a widespread epidemic of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in the Netherlands in 1997 are described. Evaluation of the epidemic demonstrated that special emphasis needs to be placed on factors such as the high-risk period, animal movement, the attitude of farmers towards risk and the structure of compensation. Epidemic disease insurance schemes are considered to be a possible alternative in alleviating certain financial losses caused by disease outbreaks.

A model to estimate the financial consequences of classical swine fever outbreaks: principles and outcomes.

A model is presented aimed at a financial analysis of a Classical Swine Fever outbreak. Financial consequences are calculated for affected parties, including governments (EU and national), farms, and related industries in the production chain. The model can be used to calculate the losses of a real outbreak as well as of a simulated one. In this article, the model is applied to the 1997/1998 outbreak of Classical Swine Fever in the Netherlands. Results show that total financial consequences of the outbreak are US $2.3 billion. Consequential losses for farmers and related industries are US $423 million and US $596 million respectively. Budgetary consequences for governments include less than 50% of the total losses calculated by the model. The model can be adapted easily to suit other diseases and countries.

Spatial and stochastic simulation to evaluate the impact of events and control measures on the 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands. II. Comparison of control strategies.

Using the spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model InterCSF, several alternative pre-emptive slaughter strategies that could have been applied in the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997-1998 were evaluated. Furthermore, effects of changes in some disease-spread and disease-control parameters were studied. InterCSF simulates the spread of CSF between farms through local spread and contacts (animals, transport and persons). Disease spread is affected by control measures implemented through different mechanisms (e.g. depopulation of infected farms, pre-emptive slaughter, movement control). The starting point for the evaluation of strategies was a simulated basic scenario, which mimicked the real epidemic. Strategies were compared using epidemiological as well as economic results. Economic results were generated by a separate model (EpiLoss) that calculated the direct losses and consequential losses for farmers and related industries. The comparison of the different alternatives to the basic scenario led to some general conclusions on the Dutch CSF-epidemic. Pre-emptive slaughter seemed to be an effective strategy to reduce the size of an epidemic, if started at an early stage. Economically, pre-emptive slaughter was not as expensive as expected; the resulting smaller size of the epidemic, combined with less welfare slaughter, led to much lower overall losses. Furthermore, although large movement control areas seemed effective in reducing the size of the epidemic, the total losses were relatively high because of subsequent welfare slaughter. If infection probabilities could be reduced, for example by improved biosecurity, the resulting epidemics would be much smaller.