Optimizing selective withdrawal strategies to mitigate hypoxia under water-level reduction in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir.

Water-level reduction frequently occurs in deep reservoirs, but its effect on dissolved oxygen concentration is not well understood. In this study we used a well-established water quality model to illustrate effects of water level dynamics on oxygen concentration in Rappbode Reservoir, Germany. We then systematically elucidated the potential of selective withdrawal to control hypoxia under changing water levels. Our results documented a gradual decrease of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration under decreasing water level, and hypoxia occurred when the initial level was lower than 410 m a.s.l (71 m relative to the reservoir bottom). We also suggested that changes of hypoxic region, under increasing hypolimnetic withdrawal discharge, followed a unimodal trajectory with the maximum hypoxic area projected under the discharge between 3 m3/sec and 4 m3/sec. Besides, our results illustrated the extent of hypoxia was most effectively inhibited if the withdrawal strategy was applied at the end of stratification with the outlet elevation at the deepest part of the reservoir. Moreover, hypoxia can be totally avoided under a hybrid elevation withdrawal strategy using surface withdrawal during early and mid stratification, and deep withdrawal at the end of stratification. We further confirmed the decisive role of thermal structure in the formation of hypoxia under water-level reduction and withdrawal strategies. We believe the conclusions from this study can be applied to many deep waters in the temperate zone, and the results should guide stakeholders to mitigate negative impacts of hypoxia on aquatic ecosystems.

Cascading climate effects in deep reservoirs: Full assessment of physical and biogeochemical dynamics under ensemble climate projections and ways towards adaptation.

We coupled twenty-first century climate projections with a well-established water quality model to depict future ecological changes of Rappbode Reservoir, Germany. Our results document a chain of climate-driven effects propagating through the aquatic ecosystem and interfering with drinking water supply: intense climate warming (RCP8.5 scenario) will firstly trigger a strong increase in water temperatures, in turn leading to metalimnetic hypoxia, accelerating sediment nutrient release and finally boosting blooms of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens. Such adverse water quality developments will be suppressed under RCP2.6 and 6.0 indicating that mitigation of climate change is improving water security. Our results also suggested surface withdrawal can be an effective adaptation strategy to make the reservoir ecosystem more resilient to climate warming. The identified consequences from climate warming and adaptation strategies are relevant to many deep waters in the temperate zone, and the conclusion should provide important guidances for stakeholders to confront potential climate changes.

Reservoir water quality deterioration due to deforestation emphasizes the indirect effects of global change.

Deforestation is currently a widespread phenomenon and a growing environmental concern in the era of rapid climate change. In temperate regions, it is challenging to quantify the impacts of deforestation on the catchment dynamics and downstream aquatic ecosystems such as reservoirs and disentangle these from direct climate change impacts, let alone project future changes to inform management. Here, we tackled this issue by investigating a unique catchment-reservoir system with two reservoirs in distinct trophic states (meso­ and eutrophic), both of which drain into the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany. Due to the prolonged droughts in 2015-2018, the catchment of the mesotrophic reservoir lost an unprecedented area of forest (exponential increase since 2015 and ca. 17.1% loss in 2020 alone). We coupled catchment nutrient exports (HYPE) and reservoir ecosystem dynamics (GOTM-WET) models using a process-based modeling approach. The coupled model was validated with datasets spanning periods of rapid deforestation, which makes our future projections highly robust. Results show that in a short-term time scale (by 2035), increasing nutrient flux from the catchment due to vast deforestation (80% loss) can turn the mesotrophic reservoir into a eutrophic state as its counterpart. Our results emphasize the more prominent impacts of deforestation than the direct impact of climate warming in impairment of water quality and ecological services to downstream aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to evaluate the impact of climate change on temperate reservoirs by incorporating a time scale-dependent context, highlighting the indirect impact of deforestation in the short-term scale. In the long-term scale (e.g. to 2100), a guiding hypothesis for future research may be that indirect effects (e.g., as mediated by catchment dynamics) are as important as the direct effects of climate warming on aquatic ecosystems.

Analysis of driving forces on wetland ecosystem services value change: A case in Northeast China.

Social development and changes in natural conditions have seriously affected the ecosystem services value (ESV) of wetlands. It is important for social sustainable development and human welfare to identify and evaluate the driving factors that lead to changes in ESVs. Based on the land use data of Northeast China (NEC) from 1980 to 2015, the Emergy method and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition analysis (LMDI) was applied to calculate the main ESVs of wetlands and clarify the contributions of different driving factors to ESVs changes. The results showed that the value of provision services (ESVp) and cultural services (ESVc) increased significantly, while the value of regulation services (ESVr) and supporting services (ESVs) decreased. Overall, the ESV of wetlands increased by 7.31 × 1022 solar emjoules (sej), with a growth rate of 127.73%. The most obvious factors driving ESV changes were the wetland supporting factor (△GA), per capita GDP factor (△PG), and protection investment factor (△T). The combined average contribution weight of the three factors was above 50%. From the perspective of driving force category, social-economic development effect had the greatest impact on ESVs, with average contribution weights ranging from 45.18% to 54.59%, followed by human activity effect, average contribution weights ranging from 33.45% to 40.14%, and the influence of natural factor effect was relatively small. The research results would provide a reference for protecting and improving the ESV of the wetland ecosystem.

Unravelling winter diatom blooms in temperate lakes using high frequency data and ecological modeling.

In temperate lakes, it is generally assumed that light rather than temperature constrains phytoplankton growth in winter. Rapid winter warming and increasing observations of winter blooms warrant more investigation of these controls. We investigated the mechanisms regulating a massive winter diatom bloom in a temperate lake. High frequency data and process-based lake modeling demonstrated that phytoplankton growth in winter was dually controlled by light and temperature, rather than by light alone. Water temperature played a further indirect role in initiating the bloom through ice-thaw, which increased light exposure. The bloom was ultimately terminated by silicon limitation and sedimentation. These mechanisms differ from those typically responsible for spring diatom blooms and contributed to the high peak biomass. Our findings show that phytoplankton growth in winter is more sensitive to temperature, and consequently to climate change, than previously assumed. This has implications for nutrient cycling and seasonal succession of lake phytoplankton communities. The present study exemplifies the strength in integrating data analysis with different temporal resolutions and lake modeling. The new lake ecological model serves as an effective tool in analyzing and predicting winter phytoplankton dynamics for temperate lakes.

Ensemble warming projections in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir and potential adaptation strategies.

The thermal structure in reservoirs affects the development of aquatic ecosystems, and can be substantially influenced by climate change and management strategies. We applied a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to explore the response of the thermal structure in Germany's largest drinking water reservoir, Rappbode Reservoir, to future climate projections and different water withdrawal strategies. We used projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 from an ensemble of 4 different global climate models. Simulation results showed that epilimnetic water temperatures in the reservoir strongly increased under all three climate scenarios. Hypolimnetic temperatures remained rather constant under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 but increased markedly under RCP 8.5. Under the intense warming in RCP 8.5, hypolimnion temperatures were projected to rise from 5 °C to 8 °C by the end of the century. Stratification in the reservoir was projected to be more stable under RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, but did not show significant changes under RCP 2.6. Similar results were found with respect to the light intensity within the mixed-layer. Moreover, the results suggested that surface withdrawal can be an effective adaptation strategy under strong climate warming (RCP 8.5) to reduce surface warming and avoid hypolimnetic warming. This study documents how global scale climate projections can be translated into site-specific climate impacts to derive adaptation strategies for reservoir operation. Moreover, our results illustrate that the most intense warming scenario, i.e. RCP 8.5, demands far-reaching climate adaptation while the mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6) does not require adaptation of reservoir management before 2100.

The formation of a metalimnetic oxygen minimum exemplifies how ecosystem dynamics shape biogeochemical processes: A modelling study.

Metalimnetic oxygen minima are observed in many lakes and reservoirs, but the mechanisms behind this phenomena are not well understood. Thus, we simulated the metalimnetic oxygen minimum (MOM) in the Rappbode Reservoir with a well-established two-dimensional water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) to systematically quantify the chain of events leading to its formation. We used high-resolution measured data to calibrate the model, which accurately reproduced the physical (e.g. water level and water temperature), biogeochemical (e.g. nutrient and oxygen dynamics) and ecological (e.g. algal community dynamics) features of the reservoir, particularly the spatial and temporal extent of the MOM. The results indicated that around 60% of the total oxygen consumption rate in the MOM layer originated from benthic processes whereas the remainder originated from pelagic processes. The occurrence of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens in the metalimnion delayed and slightly weakened the MOM through photosynthesis, although its decaying biomass ultimately induced the MOM. Our research also confirmed the decisive role of water temperature in the formation of the MOM since the water temperatures, and thus benthic and pelagic oxygen consumption rates, were higher in the metalimnion than in the hypolimnion. Our model is not only providing novel conclusions about the drivers of MOM development and their quantitative contributions, it is also a new tool for understanding and predicting ecological and biogeochemical water quality dynamics.