Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC.

The intensification of intervention activities against the fatal vector-borne disease gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) in the last two decades has led to a large decline in the number of annually reported cases. However, while we move closer to achieving the ambitious target of elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans, pockets of infection remain, and it becomes increasingly important to quantitatively assess if different regions are on track for elimination, and where intervention efforts should be focused. We present a previously developed stochastic mathematical model for gHAT in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and show that this same formulation is able to capture the dynamics of gHAT observed at the health area level (approximately 10,000 people). This analysis was the first time any stochastic gHAT model has been fitted directly to case data and allows us to better quantify the uncertainty in our results. The analysis focuses on utilising a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to fit the model to the data from 16 health areas of Mosango health zone in Kwilu province as a case study. The spatial heterogeneity in cases is reflected in modelling results, where we predict that under the current intervention strategies, the health area of Kinzamba II, which has approximately one third of the health zone's cases, will have the latest expected year for EoT. We find that fitting the analogous deterministic version of the gHAT model using MCMC has substantially faster computation times than fitting the stochastic model using pMCMC, but produces virtually indistinguishable posterior parameterisation. This suggests that expanding health area fitting, to cover more of the DRC, should be done with deterministic fits for efficiency, but with stochastic projections used to capture both the parameter and stochastic variation in case reporting and elimination year estimations.

Livestock, pathogens, vectors, and their environment: A causal inference-based approach to estimating the pathway-specific effect of livestock on human African trypanosomiasis risk.

Livestock are important reservoirs for many zoonotic diseases, however the effects of livestock on human and environmental health extend well beyond direct disease transmission. In this retrospective ecological cohort study we use pre-existing data and the parametric g-formula, which imputes potential outcomes to quantify mediation, to estimate three hypothesized mechanisms by which livestock can influence human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) risk: the reservoir effect, where infected cattle and pigs are a source of infection to humans; the zooprophylactic effect, where preference for livestock hosts exhibited by the tsetse fly vector of HAT means that their presence protects humans from infection; and the environmental change effect, where livestock keeping activities modify the environment in such a way that habitat suitability for tsetse flies, and in turn human infection risk, is reduced. We conducted this study in four high burden countries: at the point level in Uganda, Malawi, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and at the county level in South Sudan. Our results indicate cattle and pigs play a reservoir role for the rhodesiense form (rHAT) in Uganda (rate ratio (RR) 1.68, 95% CI 0.84, 2.82 for cattle; RR 2.16, 95% CI 1.18, 3.05 for pigs), however zooprophylaxis outweighs this effect for rHAT in Malawi (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.68, 1.00 for cattle, RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.21, 0.69 for pigs). For the gambiense form (gHAT) we found evidence that pigs may be a competent reservoir (RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.92, 1.72 in Uganda; RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11, 1.42 in DRC). Statistical significance was reached for rHAT in Malawi (pigs and cattle) and Uganda (pigs only) and for gHAT in DRC (pigs and cattle). We did not find compelling evidence of an environmental change effect (all effect sizes close to 1).

Community empowerment through participation in a tsetse control project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) is a neglected tropical disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. In 2017, a pilot community-based project was launched in three villages in DRC with the overall goal of empowering community members to control tsetse using Tiny Targets which attract and kill tsetse. In this paper, we assess the community participation process in these three pilot villages over >4 years and evaluate to what extent this resulted in the empowerment of communities. We conducted a qualitative study using a participatory research approach. Together with community members of the three pilot villages from the endemic Kwilu province, we evaluated changes in project participation, community empowerment and perception of future participation at three different time points (September 2017, September 2018 and November 2021) over a 4-year period using participatory workshops and focus group discussions (FGD). We used a thematic content approach to analyse both workshop notes and FGD transcripts. The community identified five indicators to evaluate participation: (1) Leadership & Ownership, (2) Organisation & Planning, (3) Willingness, (4) Autonomy and (5) Community Involvement. The participation experience described by community members was characterised by a rapid growth of empowerment in the first year and sustained high levels thereafter. Community participants were willing to engage in potential future projects and continue to be supported by their Tiny Target project partner. However, they identified an imbalance in the power relationship within the committee and with the Tiny Target partners that limit the extent of empowerment attained. The intervention had broader benefits of community empowerment but this was limited by perceptions of being part of wider "top down" programme and by stakeholders attitude toward community participation. If empowerment is to be an important objective of projects and programmes then the needs identified by communities must be recognised and attitude of sharing power encouraged.

A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.g. COVID-19, Ebola or political instability, could impact progress towards EoT and gHAT burden. We simulated transmission and reporting dynamics in 38 regions within Kwilu, Mai Ndombe and Kwango provinces under six interruption scenarios lasting for nine or twenty-one months. Included in the interruption scenarios are the cessation of active screening in all scenarios and a reduction in passive detection rates and a delay or suspension of vector control deployments in some scenarios. Our results indicate that, even under the most extreme 21-month interruption scenario, EoT is not predicted to be delayed by more than one additional year compared to the length of the interruption. If existing vector control deployments continue, we predict no delay in achieving EoT even when both active and passive screening activities are interrupted. If passive screening remains as functional as in 2019, we expect a marginal negative impact on transmission, however this depends on the strength of passive screening in each health zone. We predict a pronounced increase in additional gHAT disease burden (morbidity and mortality) in many health zones if both active and passive screening were interrupted compared to the interruption of active screening alone. The ability to continue existing vector control during medical activity interruption is also predicted to avert a moderate proportion of disease burden.

Does a One Health approach to human African trypanosomiasis control hasten elimination? A stochastic compartmental modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: . In response to large strides in the control of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the early 2000s the WHO set targets for elimination of both the gambiense (gHAT) and rhodesiense (rHAT) forms as a public health (EPHP) problem by 2020, and elimination of gHAT transmisson (EOT) by 2030. While global EPHP targets have been met, and EOT appears within reach, current control strategies may fail to achieve gHAT EOT in the presence of animal reservoirs, the role of which is currently uncertain. Furthermore, rHAT is not targeted for EOT due to the known importance of animal reservoirs for this form. METHODS: . To evaluate the utility of a One Health approach to gHAT and rHAT EOT, we built and parameterized a compartmental stochastic model, using the Institute for Disease Modeling's Compartmental Modeling Software, to six HAT epidemics: the national rHAT epidemics in Uganda and Malawi, the national gHAT epidemics in Uganda and South Sudan, and two separate gHAT epidemics in Democratic Republic of Congo distinguished by dominant vector species. In rHAT foci the reservoir animal sub-model was stratified on four species groups, while in gHAT foci domestic swine were assumed to be the only competent reservoir. The modeled time horizon was 2005-2045, with calibration performed using HAT surveillance data and Optuna. Interventions included insecticide and trypanocide treatment of domestic animal reservoirs at varying coverage levels. RESULTS: . Validation against HAT surveillance data indicates favorable performance overall, with the possible exception of DRC. EOT was not observed in any modeled scenarios for rHAT, however insecticide treatment consistently performed better than trypanocide treatment in terms of rHAT control. EOT was not observed for gHAT at 0% coverage of domestic reservoirs with trypanocides or insecticides, but was observed by 2030 in all test scenarios; again, insecticides demonstrated superior performance to trypanocides. CONCLUSIONS: EOT likely cannot be achieved for rHAT without control of wildlife reservoirs, however insecticide treatment of domestic animals holds promise for improved control. In the presence of domestic animal reservoirs, gHAT EOT may not be achieved under current control strategies.

Efficacy and safety of acoziborole in patients with human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense: a multicentre, open-label, single-arm, phase 2/3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (gambiense HAT) in patients with late-stage disease requires hospital admission to receive nifurtimox-eflornithine combination therapy (NECT). Fexinidazole, the latest treatment that has been recommended by WHO, also requires systematic admission to hospital, which is problematic in areas with few health-care resources. We aim to assess the safety and efficacy of acoziborole in adult and adolescent patients with gambiense HAT. METHODS: This multicentre, prospective, open-label, single-arm, phase 2/3 study recruited patients aged 15 years or older with confirmed gambiense HAT infection from ten hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea. Inclusion criteria included a Karnofsky score greater than 50, ability to swallow tablets, a permanent address or traceability, ability to comply with follow-up visits and study requirements, and agreement to hospital admission during treatment. Oral acoziborole was administered as a single 960 mg dose (3 × 320 mg tablets) to fasted patients. Patients were observed in hospital until day 15 after treatment administration then for 18 months as outpatients with visits at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. The primary efficacy endpoint was the success rate of acoziborole treatment at 18 months in patients with late-stage gambiense HAT (modified intention-to-treat [mITT] population), based on modified WHO criteria. A complementary post-hoc analysis comparing the 18-month success rates for acoziborole and NECT (using historical data) was performed. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03087955. FINDINGS: Between Oct 11, 2016, and March 25, 2019, 260 patients were screened, of whom 52 were ineligible and 208 were enrolled (167 with late-stage and 41 with early-stage or intermediate-stage gambiense HAT; primary efficacy analysis set). All 41 (100%) patients with early-stage or intermediate-stage and 160 (96%) of 167 with late-stage disease completed the last 18-month follow-up visit. The mean age of participants was 34·0 years (SD 12·4), including 117 (56%) men and 91 (44%) women. Treatment success rate at 18 months was 95·2% (95% CI 91·2-97·7) reached in 159 of 167 patients with late-stage gambiense HAT (mITT population) and 98·1% (95·1-99·5) reached in 159 of 162 patients (evaluable population). Overall, 155 (75%) of 208 patients had 600 treatment-emergent adverse events. A total of 38 drug-related treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 29 (14%) patients; all were mild or moderate and most common were pyrexia and asthenia. Four deaths occurred during the study; none were considered treatment related. The post-hoc analysis showed similar results to the estimated historical success rate for NECT of 94%. INTERPRETATION: Given the high efficacy and favourable safety profile, acoziborole holds promise in the efforts to reach the WHO goal of interrupting HAT transmission by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Aid, Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Médecins Sans Frontières, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation, and the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Trypanosome spliced leader RNA for diagnosis of acoziborole treatment outcome in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis: A longitudinal follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Detection of spliced leader (SL)-RNA allows sensitive diagnosis of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). We investigated its diagnostic performance for treatment outcome assessment. METHODS: Blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from a consecutive series of 97 HAT patients, originating from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, were prospectively collected before treatment with acoziborole, and during 18 months of longitudinal follow-up after treatment. For treatment outcome assessment, SL-RNA detection was compared with microscopic trypanosome detection and CSF white blood cell count. The trial was registered under NCT03112655 in clinicaltrials.gov. FINDINGS: Before treatment, respectively 94.9% (92/97; CI 88.5-97.8%) and 67.7% (65/96; CI 57.8-76.2%) HAT patients were SL-RNA positive in blood or CSF. During follow-up, one patient relapsed with trypanosomes observed at 18 months, and was SL-RNA positive in blood and CSF at 12 months, and CSF positive at 18 months. Among cured patients, one individual tested SL-RNA positive in blood at month 12 (Specificity 98.9%; 90/91; CI 94.0-99.8%) and 18 (Specificity 98.9%; 88/89; CI 93.9-99.8%). INTERPRETATION: SL-RNA detection for HAT treatment outcome assessment shows ≥98.9% specificity in blood and 100% in CSF, and may detect relapses without lumbar puncture. FUNDING: The DiTECT-HAT project is part of the EDCTP2 programme, supported by Horizon 2020, the European Union Funding for Research and Innovation (grant number DRIA-2014-306-DiTECT-HAT).

The effect of livestock density on Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and T. b. rhodesiense: A causal inference-based approach.

Domestic and wild animals are important reservoirs of the rhodesiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT), however quantification of this effect offers utility for deploying non-medical control activities, and anticipating their success when wildlife are excluded. Further, the uncertain role of animal reservoirs-particularly pigs-threatens elimination of transmission (EOT) targets set for the gambiense form (gHAT). Using a new time series of high-resolution cattle and pig density maps, HAT surveillance data collated by the WHO Atlas of HAT, and methods drawn from causal inference and spatial epidemiology, we conducted a retrospective ecological cohort study in Uganda, Malawi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan to estimate the effect of cattle and pig density on HAT risk. For rHAT, we found a positive effect for cattle (RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.90, 2.99) and pigs (RR 2.07, 95% CI 1.15, 2.75) in Uganda, and a negative effect for cattle (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.71, 1.10) and pigs (RR 0.42, 95% CI 0.23, 0.67) in Malawi. For gHAT we found a negative effect for cattle in Uganda (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.50, 1.77) and South Sudan (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54, 0.77) but a positive effect in DRC (1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.32). For pigs, we found a positive gHAT effect in both Uganda (RR 2.02, 95% CI 0.87, 3.94) and DRC (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10, 1.37), and a negative association in South Sudan (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.50, 0.98). These effects did not reach significance for the cattle-rHAT effect in Uganda or Malawi, or the cattle-gHAT and pig-gHAT effects in Uganda. While ecological bias may drive the findings in South Sudan, estimated E-values and simulation studies suggest unmeasured confounding and underreporting are unlikely to explain our findings in Malawi, Uganda, and DRC. Our results suggest cattle and pigs may be important reservoirs of rHAT in Uganda but not Malawi, and that pigs-and possibly cattle-may be gHAT reservoirs.

A time-series approach to mapping livestock density using household survey data.

More than one billion people rely on livestock for income, nutrition, and social cohesion, however livestock keeping can facilitate disease transmission and contribute to climate change. While data on the distribution of livestock have broad utility across a range of applications, efforts to map the distribution of livestock on a large scale are limited to the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) project. We present a complimentary effort to map the distribution of cattle and pigs in Malawi, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan. In contrast to GLW, which uses dasymmetric modeling applied to census data to produce time-stratified estimates of livestock counts and spatial density, our work uses complex survey data and distinct modeling methods to generate a time-series of livestock distribution, defining livestock density as the ratio of animals to humans. In addition to favorable cross-validation results and general agreement with national density estimates derived from external data on national human and livestock populations, our results demonstrate extremely good agreement with GLW-3 estimates, supporting the validity of both efforts. Our results furthermore offer a high-resolution time series result and employ a definition of density which is particularly well-suited to the study of livestock-origin zoonoses.

Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants-one with, and one without animal transmission-to the human case data from 2000-2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However-even in these regions-we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts.

Health work and skills in the last mile of disease elimination. Experiences from sleeping sickness health workers in South Sudan and DR Congo.

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is considered a highly promising candidate for elimination within the next decade. This paper argues that the experiential knowledge of frontline health workers will be critical to achieve this goal. Interviews are used to explore the ways in which HAT workers understand, maintain, and adjust their skills amidst global and national challenges. We contrast two cases: South Sudan where HAT expertise is scattered and has been repeatedly rebuilt, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where specialised mobile detection teams have pro-actively tested people at risk for almost a century. We describe HAT careers where skills are built through participation in HAT technology trials and screening programmes; in the DRC expertise is also supported through formal rotations in screening teams and HAT referral centres for new health workers. As cases fade, de-skilling is a real threat as awareness of populations and authorities diminishes and previously vertical programmes evolve, re-configuring professional development and career paths and associated opportunities for HAT practice. To avoid repeating the mistakes of the 1960s, when elimination also seemed close at hand, we need to recognise that the 'last mile' of elimination hinges on protecting the fragile expertise of frontline health workers.

Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness, gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. While annual new cases are at a historical minimum, the likelihood of achieving the target is unknown. We utilised modelling to study the impacts of four strategies using currently available interventions, including active and passive screening and vector control, on disease burden and transmission across 168 endemic health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Median projected years of elimination of transmission show only 98 health zones are on track despite significant reduction in disease burden under medical-only strategies (64 health zones if > 90% certainty required). Blanket coverage with vector control is impractical, but is predicted to reach the target in all heath zones. Utilising projected disease burden under the uniform medical-only strategy, we provide a priority list of health zones for consideration for supplementary vector control alongside medical interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is marked for elimination of transmission by 2030, but the disease persists in several low-income countries. We couple transmission and health outcomes models to examine the cost-effectiveness of four gHAT elimination strategies in five settings - spanning low- to high-risk - of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Alongside passive screening in fixed health facilities, the strategies include active screening at average or intensified coverage levels, alone or with vector control with a scale-back algorithm when no cases are reported for three consecutive years. In high or moderate-risk settings, costs of gHAT strategies are primarily driven by active screening and, if used, vector control. Due to the cessation of active screening and vector control, most investments (75-80%) are made by 2030 and vector control might be cost-saving while ensuring elimination of transmission. In low-risk settings, costs are driven by passive screening, and minimum-cost strategies consisting of active screening and passive screening lead to elimination of transmission by 2030 with high probability.

'Where are the dead flies!': perceptions of local communities towards the deployment of Tiny Targets to control tsetse in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The National Programme for the control of human African trypanosomiasis in Democratic Republic of Congo includes a large-scale vector control operation using Tiny Targets. These are small panels of insecticide-impregnated cloth that are deployed in riverine habitat where tsetse flies concentrate. The effectiveness of Tiny Targets depends partly on acceptance by local communities. In 2018, we conducted research to explore the perception and acceptability of Tiny Targets in two different village clusters where Tiny Targets had been deployed by the local community or external teams. We conducted fourteen focus group discussions and seven semistructured interviews in three villages from each cluster in the Yasa Bonga health zone. Our findings showed that acceptability was better in the cluster where communities were involved in the deployment of Tiny Targets. Also in this cluster, awareness about Tiny Targets was satisfactory and the project was implemented within local customs, which promoted a positive perception of Tiny Targets and their benefits. In the cluster where external teams deployed Tiny Targets, a lack of information and communication, stereotypes applied by communities towards the deployment teams and the impression of inadequate respect for local customs led to anxiety and a misleading interpretation of the purpose of Tiny Targets and negatively influenced acceptability. This study highlights the importance of involving communities for programme acceptance. Our research underlined how awareness campaigns and communication are essential, but also how working within the scope of community social norms and customs are equally important. Prospects for the successful use of Tiny Targets are greater when communities are involved because the use can be adapted to social norms.

Modelling the impact of fexinidazole use on human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis is a deadly disease that has been declining in incidence since the start of the Century, primarily due to increased screening, diagnosis and treatment of infected people. The main treatment regimen currently in use requires a lumbar puncture as part of the diagnostic process to determine disease stage and hospital admission for drug administration. Fexinidazole is a new oral treatment for stage 1 and non-severe stage 2 human African trypanosomiasis. The World Health Organization has recently incorporated fexinidazole into its treatment guidelines for human African trypanosomiasis. The treatment does not require hospital admission or a lumbar puncture for all patients, which is likely to ease access for patients; however, it does require concomitant food intake, which is likely to reduce adherence. Here, we use a mathematical model calibrated to case and screening data from Mushie territory, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to explore the potential negative impact of poor compliance to an oral treatment, and potential gains to be made from increases in the rate at which patients seek treatment. We find that reductions in compliance in treatment of stage 1 cases are projected to result in the largest increase in further transmission of the disease, with failing to cure stage 2 cases also posing a smaller concern. Reductions in compliance may be offset by increases in the rate at which cases are passively detected. Efforts should therefore be made to ensure good adherence for stage 1 patients to treatment with fexinidazole and to improve access to care.

Trypanosome SL-RNA detection in blood and cerebrospinal fluid to demonstrate active gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection.

BACKGROUND: Spliced Leader (SL) trypanosome RNA is detectable only in the presence of live trypanosomes, is abundant and the Trypanozoon subgenus has a unique sequence. As previously shown in blood from Guinean human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) patients, SL-RNA is an accurate target for diagnosis. Detection of SL-RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has never been attempted. In a large group of Congolese gambiense HAT patients, the present study aims i) to confirm the sensitivity of SL-RNA detection in the blood and; ii) to assess the diagnostic performance of SL-RNA compared to trypanosome detection in CSF. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Blood and CSF from 97 confirmed gambiense HAT patients from the Democratic Republic of Congo were collected using PAXgene blood RNA Tubes. Before RNA extraction, specimens were supplemented with internal extraction control RNA to monitor the extraction, which was performed with a PAXgene Blood RNA Kit. SL-RNA qPCR was carried out with and without reverse transcriptase to monitor DNA contamination. In blood, 92/97 (94.8%) HAT patients tested SL-RNA positive, which was significantly more than combined trypanosome detection in lymph and blood (78/97 positive, 80.4%, p = 0.001). Of 96 CSF RNA specimens, 65 (67.7%) were SL-RNA positive, but there was no significant difference between sensitivity of SL-RNA and trypanosome detection in CSF. The contribution of DNA to the Cq values was negligible. In CSF with normal cell counts, a fraction of SL-RNA might have been lost during extraction as indicated by higher internal extraction control Cq values. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Detection of SL-RNA in blood and CSF allows sensitive demonstration of active gambiense HAT infection, even if trypanosomes remain undetectable in blood or lymph. As this condition often occurs in treatment failures, SL-RNA detection in blood and CSF for early detection of relapses after treatment deserves further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was an integral part of the diagnostic trial "New Diagnostic Tools for Elimination of Sleeping Sickness and Clinical Trials: Early tests of Cure" (DiTECT-HAT-WP4, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03112655).

Costs and Outcomes of Integrated Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance System Using Rapid Diagnostic Tests, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

We integrated sleeping sickness case detection into the primary healthcare system in 2 health districts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We replaced a less field-friendly serologic test with a rapid diagnostic test, which was followed up by human African trypanosomiasis microscopic testing, and used a mixed costing methodology to estimate costs from a healthcare provider perspective. We screened a total of 18,225 persons and identified 27 new cases. Average financial cost (i.e., actual expenditures) was US $6.70/person screened and $4,464/case diagnosed and treated. Average economic cost (i.e., value of resources foregone that could have been used for other purposes) was $9.40/person screened and $6,138/case diagnosed and treated. Our study shows that integrating sleeping sickness surveillance into the primary healthcare system is feasible and highlights challenges in completing the diagnostic referral process and developing a context-adapted diagnostic algorithm for the large-scale implementation of this strategy in a sustainable and low-cost manner.

Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s. METHODS: We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT. RESULTS: In 3 example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province, we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000-2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017-18, and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (model S) and to 87.3% and 92.1% (model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however, that if zero cases were found in 2021, it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for model S and 88.5% for model W); this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for model S and 94.0% for model W). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modeling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches.

Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been brought under control recently with village-based active screening playing a major role in case reduction. In the approach to elimination, we investigate how to optimise active screening in villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo, such that the expenses of screening programmes can be efficiently allocated whilst continuing to avert morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We implement a cost-effectiveness analysis using a stochastic gHAT infection model for a range of active screening strategies and, in conjunction with a cost model, we calculate the net monetary benefit (NMB) of each strategy. We focus on the high-endemicity health zone of Kwamouth in the Democratic Republic of Congo. RESULTS: High-coverage active screening strategies, occurring approximately annually, attain the highest NMB. For realistic screening at 55% coverage, annual screening is cost-effective at very low willingness-to-pay thresholds (20.4 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted), only marginally higher than biennial screening (14.6 per DALY averted). We find that, for strategies stopping after 1, 2 or 3 years of zero case reporting, the expected cost-benefits are very similar. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the current recommended strategy-annual screening with three years of zero case reporting before stopping active screening-is likely cost-effective, in addition to providing valuable information on whether transmission has been interrupted.

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction-but no increase-if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered.