Scenarios for the Altamira cave CO2 concentration from 1950 to 2100.

A data-driven approach insensitive to the initial conditions was developed to extract governing equations for the concentration of CO2 in the Altamira cave (Spain) and its two main drivers: the outside temperature and the soil moisture. This model was then reformulated in order to use satellite observations and meteorological predictions, as a forcing. The concentration of CO2 inside the cave was then investigated from 1950 to 2100 under various scenarios. It is found that extreme levels of CO2 were reached during the period 1950-1972 due to the massive affluence of visitors. It is demonstrated that it is possible to monitor the CO2 in the cave in real time using satellite information as an external forcing. For the future, it is shown that the maximum values of CO2 will exceed the levels reached during the 1980s and the 1990s when the CO2 introduced by the touristic visits, although intentionally reduced, still enhanced considerably the micro corrosion of walls and pigments.

Satellite-observed pantropical carbon dynamics.

Changes in terrestrial tropical carbon stocks have an important role in the global carbon budget. However, current observational tools do not allow accurate and large-scale monitoring of the spatial distribution and dynamics of carbon stocks1. Here, we used low-frequency L-band passive microwave observations to compute a direct and spatially explicit quantification of annual aboveground carbon (AGC) fluxes and show that the tropical net AGC budget was approximately in balance during 2010 to 2017, the net budget being composed of gross losses of -2.86 PgC yr-1 offset by gross gains of -2.97 PgC yr-1 between continents. Large interannual and spatial fluctuations of tropical AGC were quantified during the wet 2011 La Niña year and throughout the extreme dry and warm 2015-2016 El Niño episode. These interannual fluctuations, controlled predominantly by semiarid biomes, were shown to be closely related to independent global atmospheric CO2 growth-rate anomalies (Pearson's r = 0.86), highlighting the pivotal role of tropical AGC in the global carbon budget.

Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches.

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4-0.7 PgC yr-1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr-1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Coupling of ecosystem-scale plant water storage and leaf phenology observed by satellite.

Plant water storage is fundamental to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems by participating in plant metabolism, nutrient and sugar transport, and maintenance of the integrity of the hydraulic system of the plant. However, a global view of the size and dynamics of the water pools stored in plant tissues is still lacking. Here, we report global patterns of seasonal variations in ecosystem-scale plant water storage and their relationship with leaf phenology, based on space-borne measurements of L-band vegetation optical depth. We find that seasonal variations in plant water storage are highly synchronous with leaf phenology for the boreal and temperate forests, but asynchronous for the tropical woodlands, where the seasonal development of plant water storage lags behind leaf area by up to 180 days. Contrasting patterns of the time lag between plant water storage and terrestrial groundwater storage are also evident in these ecosystems. A comparison of the water cycle components in seasonally dry tropical woodlands highlights the buffering effect of plant water storage on the seasonal dynamics of water supply and demand. Our results offer insights into ecosystem-scale plant water relations globally and provide a basis for an improved parameterization of eco-hydrological and Earth system models.

Satellite passive microwaves reveal recent climate-induced carbon losses in African drylands.

The African continent is facing one of the driest periods in the past three decades as well as continued deforestation. These disturbances threaten vegetation carbon (C) stocks and highlight the need for improved capabilities of monitoring large-scale aboveground carbon stock dynamics. Here we use a satellite dataset based on vegetation optical depth derived from low-frequency passive microwaves (L-VOD) to quantify annual aboveground biomass-carbon changes in sub-Saharan Africa between 2010 and 2016. L-VOD is shown not to saturate over densely vegetated areas. The overall net change in drylands (53% of the land area) was -0.05 petagrams of C per year (Pg C yr-1) associated with drying trends, and a net change of -0.02 Pg C yr-1 was observed in humid areas. These trends reflect a high inter-annual variability with a very dry year in 2015 (net change, -0.69 Pg C) with about half of the gross losses occurring in drylands. This study demonstrates, first, the applicability of L-VOD to monitor the dynamics of carbon loss and gain due to weather variations, and second, the importance of the highly dynamic and vulnerable carbon pool of dryland savannahs for the global carbon balance, despite the relatively low carbon stock per unit area.