Shortcomings of reusing species interaction networks created by different sets of researchers.

Given the requisite cost associated with observing species interactions, ecologists often reuse species interaction networks created by different sets of researchers to test their hypotheses regarding how ecological processes drive network topology. Yet, topological properties identified across these networks may not be sufficiently attributable to ecological processes alone as often assumed. Instead, much of the totality of topological differences between networks-topological heterogeneity-could be due to variations in research designs and approaches that different researchers use to create each species interaction network. To evaluate the degree to which this topological heterogeneity is present in available ecological networks, we first compared the amount of topological heterogeneity across 723 species interaction networks created by different sets of researchers with the amount quantified from non-ecological networks known to be constructed following more consistent approaches. Then, to further test whether the topological heterogeneity was due to differences in study designs, and not only to inherent variation within ecological networks, we compared the amount of topological heterogeneity between species interaction networks created by the same sets of researchers (i.e., networks from the same publication) with the amount quantified between networks that were each from a unique publication source. We found that species interaction networks are highly topologically heterogeneous: while species interaction networks from the same publication are much more topologically similar to each other than interaction networks that are from a unique publication, they still show at least twice as much heterogeneity as any category of non-ecological networks that we tested. Altogether, our findings suggest that extra care is necessary to effectively analyze species interaction networks created by different researchers, perhaps by controlling for the publication source of each network.

The illusion of personal health decisions for infectious disease management: disease spread in social contact networks.

Close contacts between individuals provide opportunities for the transmission of diseases, including COVID-19. While individuals take part in many different types of interactions, including those with classmates, co-workers and household members, it is the conglomeration of all of these interactions that produces the complex social contact network interconnecting individuals across the population. Thus, while an individual might decide their own risk tolerance in response to a threat of infection, the consequences of such decisions are rarely so confined, propagating far beyond any one person. We assess the effect of different population-level risk-tolerance regimes, population structure in the form of age and household-size distributions, and different interaction types on epidemic spread in plausible human contact networks to gain insight into how contact network structure affects pathogen spread through a population. In particular, we find that behavioural changes by vulnerable individuals in isolation are insufficient to reduce those individuals' infection risk and that population structure can have varied and counteracting effects on epidemic outcomes. The relative impact of each interaction type was contingent on assumptions underlying contact network construction, stressing the importance of empirical validation. Taken together, these results promote a nuanced understanding of disease spread on contact networks, with implications for public health strategies.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain RNA viruses.

Potential interactions among co-circulating viral strains in host populations are often overlooked in the study of virus transmission. However, these interactions probably shape transmission dynamics by influencing host immune responses or altering the relative fitness among co-circulating strains. In this Review, we describe multi-strain dynamics from ecological and evolutionary perspectives, outline scales in which multi-strain dynamics occur and summarize important immunological, phylogenetic and mathematical modelling approaches used to quantify interactions among strains. We also discuss how host-pathogen interactions influence the co-circulation of pathogens. Finally, we highlight outstanding questions and knowledge gaps in the current theory and study of ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain viruses.

Asymmetric host movement reshapes local disease dynamics in metapopulations.

Understanding how the movement of individuals affects disease dynamics is critical to accurately predicting and responding to the spread of disease in an increasingly interconnected world. In particular, it is not yet known how movement between patches affects local disease dynamics (e.g., whether pathogen prevalence remains steady or oscillates through time). Considering a set of small, archetypal metapopulations, we find three surprisingly simple patterns emerge in local disease dynamics following the introduction of movement between patches: (1) movement between identical patches with cyclical pathogen prevalence dampens oscillations in the destination while increasing synchrony between patches; (2) when patches differ from one another in the absence of movement, adding movement allows dynamics to propagate between patches, alternatively stabilizing or destabilizing dynamics in the destination based on the dynamics at the origin; and (3) it is easier for movement to induce cyclical dynamics than to induce a steady-state. Considering these archetypal networks (and the patterns they exemplify) as building blocks of larger, more realistically complex metapopulations provides an avenue for novel insights into the role of host movement on disease dynamics. Moreover, this work demonstrates a framework for future predictive modelling of disease spread in real populations.

Network structure of resource use and niche overlap within the endophytic microbiome.

Endophytes often have dramatic effects on their host plants. Characterizing the relationships among members of these communities has focused on identifying the effects of single microbes on their host, but has generally overlooked interactions among the myriad microbes in natural communities as well as potential higher-order interactions. Network analyses offer a powerful means for characterizing patterns of interaction among microbial members of the phytobiome that may be crucial to mediating its assembly and function. We sampled twelve endophytic communities, comparing patterns of niche overlap between coexisting bacteria and fungi to evaluate the effect of nutrient supplementation on local and global competitive network structure. We found that, despite differences in the degree distribution, there were few significant differences in the global network structure of niche-overlap networks following persistent nutrient amendment. Likewise, we found idiosyncratic and weak evidence for higher-order interactions regardless of nutrient treatment. This work provides a first-time characterization of niche-overlap network structure in endophytic communities and serves as a framework for higher-resolution analyses of microbial interaction networks as a consequence and a cause of ecological variation in microbiome function.

Lessons from movement ecology for the return to work: Modeling contacts and the spread of COVID-19.

Human behavior (movement, social contacts) plays a central role in the spread of pathogens like SARS-CoV-2. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 was driven by global human movement, and initial lockdown measures aimed to localize movement and contact in order to slow spread. Thus, movement and contact patterns need to be explicitly considered when making reopening decisions, especially regarding return to work. Here, as a case study, we consider the initial stages of resuming research at a large research university, using approaches from movement ecology and contact network epidemiology. First, we develop a dynamical pathogen model describing movement between home and work; we show that limiting social contact, via reduced people or reduced time in the workplace are fairly equivalent strategies to slow pathogen spread. Second, we develop a model based on spatial contact patterns within a specific office and lab building on campus; we show that restricting on-campus activities to labs (rather than labs and offices) could dramatically alter (modularize) contact network structure and thus, potentially reduce pathogen spread by providing a workplace mechanism to reduce contact. Here we argue that explicitly accounting for human movement and contact behavior in the workplace can provide additional strategies to slow pathogen spread that can be used in conjunction with ongoing public health efforts.

Consequences of ignoring dispersal variation in network models for landscape connectivity.

Habitat loss and fragmentation can negatively influence population persistence and biodiversity, but the effects can be mitigated if species successfully disperse between isolated habitat patches. Network models are the primary tool for quantifying landscape connectivity, yet in practice, an overly simplistic view of species dispersal is applied. These models often ignore individual variation in dispersal ability under the assumption that all individuals move the same fixed distance with equal probability. We developed a modeling approach to address this problem. We incorporated dispersal kernels into network models to determine how individual variation in dispersal alters understanding of landscape-level connectivity and implemented our approach on a fragmented grassland landscape in Minnesota. Ignoring dispersal variation consistently overestimated a population's robustness to local extinctions and underestimated its robustness to local habitat loss. Furthermore, a simplified view of dispersal underestimated the amount of habitat substructure for small populations but overestimated habitat substructure for large populations. Our results demonstrate that considering biologically realistic dispersal alters understanding of landscape connectivity in ecological theory and conservation practice.

Consecuencias de la Omisión de la Variación en la Dispersión en los Modelos de Redes para la Conectividad de Paisajes Resumen La pérdida y la fragmentación del hábitat pueden influir negativamente la persistencia de poblaciones y biodiversidad. Sin embargo, estos efectos pueden ser mitigados si las especies tienen una dispersión exitosa entre los fragmentos aislados de hábitat. Los modelos de redes son la herramienta principal para la cuantificación de la conectividad del paisaje, no obstante en la práctica, se tiende a usar una visión excesivamente simplista de la dispersión de especies. Es común que estos modelos ignoren la variación que existe entre individuos en sus habilidades de dispersión y que asuman que todos los individuos se pueden mover la misma distancia y con la misma probabilidad. En este estudio, desarrollamos una estrategia de modelaje para (minimizar o aminorar) estas limitaciones incorporando kernels de dispersión dentro de los modelos de redes para determinar cómo la variación individual de la dispersión altera el entendimiento de la conectividad a nivel de paisaje. Como un ejemplo, implementamos esta estrategia en un paisaje de pastizal fragmentado en Minnesota. Omitir la variación en la dispersión generó una sobreestimación sistemática de la robustez de la población ante las extinciones locales y una subestimación de la robustez ante la pérdida local del hábitat. Además, una visión simplificada de la dispersión subestimó la complejidad de hábitat para las poblaciones pequeñas, sin emgargo sobreestimó la complejidad para las poblaciones grandes. Nuestros resultados demuestran que incorporar parámetros que describan una dispersión biológica realista tiene implicaciones importantes en la teoría de conectividad de paisajes e implementación de practicas de conservación.

Broadening Participation in Scientific Conferences during the Era of Social Distancing.

Virtual conferences can offer significant benefits but require considerable planning and creativity to be successful. Here we describe the successes and failures of a hybrid in-person/virtual conference model. The COVID-19 epidemic presents the scientific community with an opportunity to pioneer novel models that effectively engage virtual participants to advance conference goals.

Telling ecological networks apart by their structure: A computational challenge.

Ecologists have been compiling ecological networks for over a century, detailing the interactions between species in a variety of ecosystems. To this end, they have built networks for mutualistic (e.g., pollination, seed dispersal) as well as antagonistic (e.g., herbivory, parasitism) interactions. The type of interaction being represented is believed to be reflected in the structure of the network, which would differ substantially between mutualistic and antagonistic networks. Here, we put this notion to the test by attempting to determine the type of interaction represented in a network based solely on its structure. We find that, although it is easy to separate different kinds of nonecological networks, ecological networks display much structural variation, making it difficult to distinguish between mutualistic and antagonistic interactions. We therefore frame the problem as a challenge for the community of scientists interested in computational biology and machine learning. We discuss the features a good solution to this problem should possess and the obstacles that need to be overcome to achieve this goal.

Understanding the role of parasites in food webs using the group model.

Parasites are ubiquitous and have been shown to influence macroscopic measures of ecological network structure, such as connectance and robustness, as well as local structure, such as subgraph frequencies. Nevertheless, they are often under-represented in ecological studies due to their small size and often complex life cycles. We consider whether or not parasites play structurally unique roles in ecological networks; that is, can we distinguish parasites from other species using network structure alone? We partition the species in a community statistically using the group model, and we test whether or not parasites tend to cluster in their own groups, using a measure of "imbalance." We find that parasites form highly imbalanced groups, and that concomitant predation, in which a predator consumes a prey and its parasites, but not the number of interactions, improves the group model's ability to distinguish parasites from non-parasites. This work demonstrates that parasites and non-parasites interact in networks in statistically distinct ways, and that these differences are partly, but not entirely, due to the existence of concomitant predation.

Self-regulation and the stability of large ecological networks.

The stability of complex ecological networks depends both on the interactions between species and the direct effects of the species on themselves. These self-effects are known as 'self-regulation' when an increase in a species' abundance decreases its per-capita growth rate. Sources of self-regulation include intraspecific interference, cannibalism, time-scale separation between consumers and their resources, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear functional responses coupling predators with their prey. The influence of self-regulation on network stability is understudied and in addition, the empirical estimation of self-effects poses a formidable challenge. Here, we show that empirical food web structures cannot be stabilized unless the majority of species exhibit substantially strong self-regulation. We also derive an analytical formula predicting the effect of self-regulation on network stability with high accuracy and show that even for random networks, as well as networks with a cascade structure, stability requires negative self-effects for a large proportion of species. These results suggest that the aforementioned potential mechanisms of self-regulation are probably more important in contributing to the stability of observed ecological networks than was previously thought.

Higher-order interactions stabilize dynamics in competitive network models.

Ecologists have long sought a way to explain how the remarkable biodiversity observed in nature is maintained. On the one hand, simple models of interacting competitors cannot produce the stable persistence of very large ecological communities. On the other hand, neutral models, in which species do not interact and diversity is maintained by immigration and speciation, yield unrealistically small fluctuations in population abundance, and a strong positive correlation between a species' abundance and its age, contrary to empirical evidence. Models allowing for the robust persistence of large communities of interacting competitors are lacking. Here we show that very diverse communities could persist thanks to the stabilizing role of higher-order interactions, in which the presence of a species influences the interaction between other species. Although higher-order interactions have been studied for decades, their role in shaping ecological communities is still unclear. The inclusion of higher-order interactions in competitive network models stabilizes dynamics, making species coexistence robust to the perturbation of both population abundance and parameter values. We show that higher-order interactions have strong effects in models of closed ecological communities, as well as of open communities in which new species are constantly introduced. In our framework, higher-order interactions are completely defined by pairwise interactions, facilitating empirical parameterization and validation of our models.

And, not or: Quality, quantity in scientific publishing.

Scientists often perceive a trade-off between quantity and quality in scientific publishing: finite amounts of time and effort can be spent to produce few high-quality papers or subdivided to produce many papers of lower quality. Despite this perception, previous studies have indicated the opposite relationship, in which productivity (publishing more papers) is associated with increased paper quality (usually measured by citation accumulation). We examine this question in a novel way, comparing members of the National Academy of Sciences with themselves across years, and using a much larger dataset than previously analyzed. We find that a member's most highly cited paper in a given year has more citations in more productive years than in in less productive years. Their lowest cited paper each year, on the other hand, has fewer citations in more productive years. To disentangle the effect of the underlying distributions of citations and productivities, we repeat the analysis for hypothetical publication records generated by scrambling each author's citation counts among their publications. Surprisingly, these artificial histories re-create the above trends almost exactly. Put another way, the observed positive relationship between quantity and quality can be interpreted as a consequence of randomly drawing citation counts for each publication: more productive years yield higher-cited papers because they have more chances to draw a large value. This suggests that citation counts, and the rewards that have come to be associated with them, may be more stochastic than previously appreciated.

The Effect of Intra- and Interspecific Competition on Coexistence in Multispecies Communities.

For two competing species, intraspecific competition must exceed interspecific competition for coexistence. To generalize this well-known criterion to multiple competing species, one must take into account both the distribution of interaction strengths and community structure. Here we derive a multispecies generalization of the two-species rule in the context of symmetric Lotka-Volterra competition and obtain explicit stability conditions for random competitive communities. We then explore the influence of community structure on coexistence. Results show that both the most and least stabilized cases have striking global structures, with a nested pattern emerging in both cases. The distribution of intraspecific coefficients leading to the most and least stabilized communities also follows a predictable pattern that can be justified analytically. In addition, we show that the size of the parameter space allowing for feasible communities always increases with the strength of intraspecific effects in a characteristic way that is independent of the interspecific interaction structure. We conclude by discussing possible extensions of our results to nonsymmetric competition.