[Aspects for data mining implementation in gerontology and geriatrics].

Current challenges facing theory and practice in ageing sciences need new methods of experimental data investigation. This is a result as of experimental basis developments in biological research, so of information technology progress. These achievements make it possible to use well proven in different fields of science and engineering data mining methods for tasks in gerontology and geriatrics. Some examples of data mining methods implementation in gerontology are presented.

[Statistical analysis of links between cancer and associated diseases].

We investigate dependencies between cancer morbidity and associated diseases. A statistical method that yields blocks of diseases with most significant influence on the cancer morbidity is described. Based on USA data about cause-specific mortality we select diseases which have maximum differences between distributions of associated diseases in a group of people which had cancer or died from it and a group of people which didn't have cancer. A medical interpretation of the results is discussed.

[Basic principles of creation of multilevel multistage mathematical model of aging].

Current knowledge on the aging allows to elaborate approaches to the creation of multilevel model of multistage of human aging taking into consideration events during the aging at various levels of integration: molecular, cellular, tissue, organ, systemic, organism. The present paper have deals with main states of the mathematical model of multistage aging, principles of its construction, applicability and evaluation of its prognostic power. There are 3 levels of integrative systems: homeostatic (organismal), systemic and cellular-molecular. The definitions of normal and pathological aging are given. The samples of various patterns of aging under the influence of factors accelerating aging (constant illumination or alimentary obesity) or under the factors slowing down aging (treatment with metformin or melatonin) are discussed.

[Investistigation of the role of heterogenety individual radiosensitivity in estimation of radiation indused ageing].

The influence of heterogeneity in individual radiosensitivity on estimation of ageing using survival curve is considered. Quadratic deviation of the rate of ageing from the true value in estimated by imitation modeling techniques. The Gompertz model for spontaneous mortality and gamma-frailty model for heterogeneity are used. Simulation performed at different values of radiation effect and heterogeneity variance. It is shown that inclusion heterogeneity in the model is not efficient for large values of heterogeneity variance. For moderate values of heterogeneity variance model with heterogeneity produces more accurate results in comparison with the model without heterogeneity.

[Mathematical modelling and aging: a program for scientific research].

Problems of mathematical modelling are discussed in connection with a study of aging and longevity. The directions of investigation are presented in which the greatest effect of the application of mathematical modelling for solving the problem of radical human life prolongation is expected.

[Investigation of disability prevalence in men and women of advanced age].

Disability prevalence among men and women are investigated using NLTCS surveys conducted in 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994 and 1999 in the US population, on persons older than 65 years, and data from LSADT surveys conducted in 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2001 in the population of the Danish Twins Registry, on persons older than 75 years. In both surveys women are more disabled than men. The probability of becoming disabled and surviving is higher for women than men. The probability of recovering from a disability differs between the sexes statistically insignificant. No time trends are observed in the probabilities of becoming disabled, reversing disability or dying disabled. Calculations show that a decrease in disability prevalence observed in the USA resulted from a decrease in disability prevalence in ages younger than 65 years. Using LSADT data heritability of disability in women older than 75 years is estimated to be 36% (14%; 54%). In men of the same ages the estimate is 11% (0%; 40%) and for both sexes heritability is estimated at 28% (10%; 45%).

[Gerontology in silico: the emergence of a new discipline].

In this paper the modern views concerning the place of mathematical and computer modeling of aging and aging related pathologies in the current state and in future developments of gerontology are discussed. The review of most perspective directions of research including analyses of demographic, molecular, cellular, and physiological mechanisms of aging, the roles of damage and reparation of DNA, cell proliferation and apoptosis, where application of mathematical modeling is promising is given. Special attention is paid to the results and perspectives of mathematical modeling in experimental gerontology including modeling of aging and longevity in laboratory animals (nematode worms, fruit flies, mice, rats) and humans.

[Are Nobel prize winners gettting older? Mathematical analysis of age and life span of the Nobel prize winners, 1901-2003]. / Stareet li Nobelevskii laureat? Matematicheskii analiz vozrasta i prodolzhitel'nosti zhizni laureatov Nobelevskoi premii za 1901-2003gg.

Data on the distribution by the age of 647 Nobel prizewinner in physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, economics and literature and time dynamics of the age during 1901-2003 are presented in the paper. The mean survival and the expected life span of the prizewinners was also calculated. The mean life span of the Nobelists in natural sciences steadily increases from the first to the fourth quartile of the 20th century. The rate of the prizewinners selected at the age of 61 and more years increases from the 23% at 1901-1925 to 53.1% at 1975-2003, whereas the rate of the winners selected before the age of 40 years decreases from 19% to 2.7% during the same period. Analysis of available data on the Nobel Prizes for chemistry or physiology or medicine has shown that the majority of the Prizes was awarded to researcher discovered his main results at the age of 31-40 (41.8% and 47.4%, correspondingly). The mean interval between a discovery and a selection for Nobel Prize in chemistry increases from 12.6 years in 1901-1925 to 23.7 years in 1975-2003, whereas corresponding parameters for prizewinners in physiology or medicine increases from to 16.9 to 20.1 years. The mean life span of deceased Nobelists is 77.8 years, varying from 76.0 years in chemists to 84.8 years in economists. The mean life span after the selection is 20.3 years (from 13.6 years in writers to 24.6 in physicists). The expected life span after the selection adjusted by the age and the year of the selection of the Nobelists in physics, chemistry, economics and literature in 1959-1999 failed to reveal any increase, whereas the life expectancy of the prizewinners in physiology or medicine is increased as compared with the male population of USA.

[A mathematician will help a biologist to fix a radio]. / Matematik pomozhet biologu i radiopriemnik pochinit'.

Comments to the article by Lazebnik Yu. Can a biologist fix a radio?--Or, what I learned while studying apoptosis. The role of mathematic modeling in biology discussed in the paper.