Modelling the bimodal distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in Great Britain.

Gamma radiation from naturally occurring sources (including directly ionizing cosmic-rays) is a major component of background radiation. An understanding of the magnitude and variation of doses from these sources is important, and the ability to predict them is required for epidemiological studies. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma-rays at representative locations in Great Britain are summarized. It is shown that, although the individual measurement data appear unimodal, the distribution of gamma-ray dose-rates when averaged over relatively small areas, which probably better represents the underlying distribution with inter-house variation reduced, appears bimodal. The dose-rate distributions predicted by three empirical and geostatistical models are also bimodal and compatible with the distributions of the areally averaged dose-rates. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in the UK is compared with those in other countries, which also tend to appear bimodal (or possibly multimodal). The variation of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates with geology, socio-economic status of the area, building type, and period of construction are explored. The factors affecting indoor dose-rates from background gamma radiation are complex and frequently intertwined, but geology, period of construction, and socio-economic status are influential; the first is potentially most influential, perhaps, because it can be used as a general proxy for local building materials. Various statistical models are tested for predicting indoor gamma-ray dose-rates at unmeasured locations. Significant improvements over previous modelling are reported. The dose-rate estimates generated by these models reflect the imputed underlying distribution of dose-rates and provide acceptable predictions at geographical locations without measurements.

Radon, the lognormal distribution and deviation from it.

It has been recognised for many years that the distributions of indoor radon concentrations in many countries conform more or less closely to a lognormal distribution. For homes situated over a single geological unit with a consistent source of radon in the ground, conformance with the lognormal distribution can be understood in terms of the multiplicative factors affecting the relationship between radium in the ground and radon in indoor air. The fact that national as well as local distributions of indoor radon also usually conform to the lognormal can be attributed to the fact that the mixture of a number of different lognormal distributions will often result in a lognormal distribution. In some cases, however, the national distributions of indoor radon deviate from a lognormal distribution: the reasons for this are examined using model normal distributions. A study of the deviation of the UK distribution from log-normality above 500 Bq m(-3) provides a better estimate of the number of homes with very high radon concentrations.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006.

We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27,447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980-2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36,793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother's residence at the child's birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (ERR) (95% CI 3, 22; two-sided P=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red bone marrow dose from gamma radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, ERR 3% (95% CI -4, 11; P=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high-dose rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high-dose rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.

Seasonal variation of radon concentrations in UK homes.

The patterns of seasonal variation of radon concentrations were measured in 91 homes in five regions of the UK over a period of two years. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the regions in the pattern or magnitude of seasonal variation in radon concentrations. The arithmetic mean variation was found to be close to that found previously in the UK national survey. Differences in the pattern between the two years of the study were not significant. Two-thirds of homes in the study followed the expected pattern of high radon in the winter and low radon in the summer. Most of the rest showed little seasonal variation, and a few showed a reversed seasonal pattern. The study does not provide any clear evidence for the recorded house characteristics having an effect on the seasonal variation in radon concentrations in UK homes, though the statistical power for determining such effects is limited in this study. The magnitude of the seasonal variation varied widely between homes. Analysis of the individual results from the homes showed that because of the wide variation in the amount of seasonal variation, applying seasonal correction factors to the results of three-month measurements can yield only relatively small improvements in the accuracy of estimates of annual mean concentrations.

Comparison of Northern Ireland radon maps based on indoor radon measurements and geology with maps derived by predictive modelling of airborne radiometric and ground permeability data.

Publicly available information about radon potential in Northern Ireland is currently based on indoor radon results averaged over 1-km grid squares, an approach that does not take into account the geological origin of the radon. This study describes a spatially more accurate estimate of the radon potential of Northern Ireland using an integrated radon potential mapping method based on indoor radon measurements and geology that was originally developed for mapping radon potential in England and Wales. A refinement of this method was also investigated using linear regression analysis of a selection of relevant airborne and soil geochemical parameters from the Tellus Project. The most significant independent variables were found to be eU, a parameter derived from airborne gamma spectrometry measurements of radon decay products in the top layer of soil and exposed bedrock, and the permeability of the ground. The radon potential map generated from the Tellus data agrees in many respects with the map based on indoor radon data and geology but there are several areas where radon potential predicted from the airborne radiometric and permeability data is substantially lower. This under-prediction could be caused by the radon concentration being lower in the top 30 cm of the soil than at greater depth, because of the loss of radon from the surface rocks and soils to air.

Soil radium, soil gas radon and indoor radon empirical relationships to assist in post-closure impact assessment related to near-surface radioactive waste disposal.

Least squares (LS), Theil's (TS) and weighted total least squares (WTLS) regression analysis methods are used to develop empirical relationships between radium in the ground, radon in soil and radon in dwellings to assist in the post-closure assessment of indoor radon related to near-surface radioactive waste disposal at the Low Level Waste Repository in England. The data sets used are (i) estimated ²²6Ra in the < 2 mm fraction of topsoils (eRa226) derived from equivalent uranium (eU) from airborne gamma spectrometry data, (ii) eRa226 derived from measurements of uranium in soil geochemical samples, (iii) soil gas radon and (iv) indoor radon data. For models comparing indoor radon and (i) eRa226 derived from airborne eU data and (ii) soil gas radon data, some of the geological groupings have significant slopes. For these groupings there is reasonable agreement in slope and intercept between the three regression analysis methods (LS, TS and WTLS). Relationships between radon in dwellings and radium in the ground or radon in soil differ depending on the characteristics of the underlying geological units, with more permeable units having steeper slopes and higher indoor radon concentrations for a given radium or soil gas radon concentration in the ground. The regression models comparing indoor radon with soil gas radon have intercepts close to 5 Bq m⁻³ whilst the intercepts for those comparing indoor radon with eRa226 from airborne eU vary from about 20 Bq m⁻³ for a moderately permeable geological unit to about 40 Bq m⁻³ for highly permeable limestone, implying unrealistically high contributions to indoor radon from sources other than the ground. An intercept value of 5 Bq m⁻³ is assumed as an appropriate mean value for the UK for sources of indoor radon other than radon from the ground, based on examination of UK data. Comparison with published data used to derive an average indoor radon: soil ²²6Ra ratio shows that whereas the published data are generally clustered with no obvious correlation, the data from this study have substantially different relationships depending largely on the permeability of the underlying geology. Models for the relatively impermeable geological units plot parallel to the average indoor radon: soil ²²6Ra model but with lower indoor radon: soil ²²6Ra ratios, whilst the models for the permeable geological units plot parallel to the average indoor radon: soil ²²6Ra model but with higher than average indoor radon: soil ²²6Ra ratios.

A statistical evaluation of the geogenic controls on indoor radon concentrations and radon risk.

ANOVA is used to show that approximately 25% of the total variation of indoor radon concentrations in England and Wales can be explained by the mapped bedrock and superficial geology. The proportion of the total variation explained by geology is higher (up to 37%) in areas where there is strong contrast between the radon potential of sedimentary geological units and lower (14%) where the influence of confounding geological controls, such as uranium mineralisation, cut across mapped geological boundaries. When indoor radon measurements are grouped by geology and 1-km squares of the national grid, the cumulative percentage of the variation between and within mapped geological units is shown to be 34-40%. The proportion of the variation that can be attributed to mapped geological units increases with the level of detail of the digital geological data. This study confirms the importance of radon maps that show the variation of indoor radon concentrations both between and within mapped geological boundaries.

An etched track detector for short-term screening measurements of radon.

An etched track detector has been developed for use in screening or indicative measurements of radon in homes over an exposure period of 14 days. If the annual mean radon concentration estimated from screening detector results is within a factor of two of the UK radon Action Level (200 Bq m(-3)), the householder is told that the result is uncertain, and advice on whether the home is above or below the Action Level must be based on the result of a (standard) 90 day measurement. The screening detectors are always supplied to householders together with detectors to be exposed for 90 days, so that if the screening result is reported as being uncertain (within the range 100-400 Bq m(-3)), a long-term measurement in the home is already under way. Comparison of the results of the screening (14 day) and standard (90 day) detectors exposed in the same homes shows that reporting screening results in this way did not result in any householders being wrongly advised. Short-term measurements can therefore be offered in those circumstances where a householder needs a faster indication of radon levels in a property (for example a house sale), with the caveat that a 14 day exposure result within a factor of two of the Action Level requires a long-term measurement to confirm whether the dwelling is above or below the Action Level. A precautionary uncertainty range for use with charcoal detector measurements is also given (75-500 Bq m(-3)).

Pilot study of the application of Tellus airborne radiometric and soil geochemical data for radon mapping.

The scope for using Tellus Project airborne gamma-ray spectrometer and soil geochemical data to predict the probability of houses in Northern Ireland having high indoor radon concentrations is evaluated, in a pilot study in the southeast of the province, by comparing these data statistically with in-house radon measurements. There is generally good agreement between radon maps modelled from the airborne radiometric and soil geochemical data using multivariate linear regression analysis and conventional radon maps which depend solely on geological and indoor radon data. The radon maps based on the Tellus Project data identify some additional areas where the radon risk appears to be relatively high compared with the conventional radon maps. One of the ways of validating radon maps modelled on the Tellus Project data will be to carry out additional indoor measurements in these areas.

Radon activity concentration--a Euromet and BIPM supplementary comparison.

For the first time, a comparison of radon activity concentration in air has been performed within the scope of Euromet. In the project 657, 'Comparison of calibration facilities for the radon activity concentration,' 12 participants from 9 countries compared different radon reference atmospheres at 1, 3 and 10 k Bq m-3 via a transfer standard. The comparison was listed as BIPM supplementary comparison EUROMET.RI(II)-S1. The results of most participants are correlated due to common traceability to one single radon gas standard producer. This makes a careful correlation analysis necessary to achieve an appropriate comparison reference value. The results of the comparison as well as the complex analysis of the correlated set of data is presented and discussed.

The development of the UK radon programme.

The natural radioactive gas, radon, is responsible for the largest component of the radiation dose received by the average UK citizen. The risks of exposure to radon have been demonstrated and quantified in epidemiological studies of those exposed at work and in the home. In the UK, measures are in place to identify and help control the exposures in those houses where levels are highest, to limit levels in new buildings and to control exposures in the workplace. This paper outlines the development of the programme, with special reference to the identification and remediation of homes with high radon levels.

Mapping variation in radon potential both between and within geological units.

Previously, the potential for high radon levels in UK houses has been mapped either on the basis of grouping the results of radon measurements in houses by grid squares or by geological units. In both cases, lognormal modelling of the distribution of radon concentrations was applied to allow the estimated proportion of houses above the UK radon Action Level (AL, 200 Bq m(-3)) to be mapped. This paper describes a method of combining the grid square and geological mapping methods to give more accurate maps than either method can provide separately. The land area is first divided up using a combination of bedrock and superficial geological characteristics derived from digital geological map data. Each different combination of geological characteristics may appear at the land surface in many discontinuous locations across the country. HPA has a database of over 430,000 houses in which long-term measurements of radon concentration have been made, and whose locations are accurately known. Each of these measurements is allocated to the appropriate bedrock--superficial geological combination underlying it. Taking each geological combination in turn, the spatial variation of radon potential is mapped, treating the combination as if it were continuous over the land area. All of the maps of radon potential within different geological combinations are then combined to produce a map of variation in radon potential over the whole land surface.

Practical procedures for a radon etched track dosimetry service.

Etched track detectors are widely used for the detection of radon and its decay products. They have many desirable attributes: they are small, cheap, simple, non-toxic and non-hazardous. Etched track detectors provide adequate accuracy for most radiological protection purposes provided stringent quality assurance is maintained. The UK validation scheme provides an important component of QA but continuous monitoring of conditions and results is also needed. If these conditions are observed, these detectors provide an entirely adequate tool for large-scale use in assessing levels of radon in houses. Accurate estimates of long-term average radon levels require a measurement over several months because of the short-term fluctuations in radon concentrations.