Natural experiments for the evaluation of place-based public health interventions: a methodology scoping review.

Introduction: Place-based public health evaluations are increasingly making use of natural experiments. This scoping review aimed to provide an overview of the design and use of natural experiment evaluations (NEEs), and an assessment of the plausibility of the as-if randomization assumption. Methods: A systematic search of three bibliographic databases (Pubmed, Web of Science and Ovid-Medline) was conducted in January 2020 to capture publications that reported a natural experiment of a place-based public health intervention or outcome. For each, study design elements were extracted. An additional evaluation of as-if randomization was conducted by 12 of this paper's authors who evaluated the same set of 20 randomly selected studies and assessed 'as-if ' randomization for each. Results: 366 NEE studies of place-based public health interventions were identified. The most commonly used NEE approach was a Difference-in-Differences study design (25%), followed by before-after studies (23%) and regression analysis studies. 42% of NEEs had likely or probable as-if randomization of exposure (the intervention), while for 25% this was implausible. An inter-rater agreement exercise indicated poor reliability of as-if randomization assignment. Only about half of NEEs reported some form of sensitivity or falsification analysis to support inferences. Conclusion: NEEs are conducted using many different designs and statistical methods and encompass various definitions of a natural experiment, while it is questionable whether all evaluations reported as natural experiments should be considered as such. The likelihood of as-if randomization should be specifically reported, and primary analyses should be supported by sensitivity analyses and/or falsification tests. Transparent reporting of NEE designs and evaluation methods will contribute to the optimum use of place-based NEEs.

Food biodiversity and total and cause-specific mortality in 9 European countries: An analysis of a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Food biodiversity, encompassing the variety of plants, animals, and other organisms consumed as food and drink, has intrinsic potential to underpin diverse, nutritious diets and improve Earth system resilience. Dietary species richness (DSR), which is recommended as a crosscutting measure of food biodiversity, has been positively associated with the micronutrient adequacy of diets in women and young children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the relationships between DSR and major health outcomes have yet to be assessed in any population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined the associations between DSR and subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 451,390 adults enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study (1992 to 2014, median follow-up: 17 years), free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack, or stroke at baseline. Usual dietary intakes were assessed at recruitment with country-specific dietary questionnaires (DQs). DSR of an individual's yearly diet was calculated based on the absolute number of unique biological species in each (composite) food and drink. Associations were assessed by fitting multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. In the EPIC cohort, 2 crops (common wheat and potato) and 2 animal species (cow and pig) accounted for approximately 45% of self-reported total dietary energy intake [median (P10-P90): 68 (40 to 83) species consumed per year]. Overall, higher DSR was inversely associated with all-cause mortality rate. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing total mortality in the second, third, fourth, and fifth (highest) quintiles (Qs) of DSR to the first (lowest) Q indicate significant inverse associations, after stratification by sex, age, and study center and adjustment for smoking status, educational level, marital status, physical activity, alcohol intake, and total energy intake, Mediterranean diet score, red and processed meat intake, and fiber intake [HR (95% CI): 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94), 0.80 (0.76 to 0.83), 0.69 (0.66 to 0.72), and 0.63 (0.59 to 0.66), respectively; PWald < 0.001 for trend]. Absolute death rates among participants in the highest and lowest fifth of DSR were 65.4 and 69.3 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Significant inverse associations were also observed between DSR and deaths due to cancer, heart disease, digestive disease, and respiratory disease. An important study limitation is that our findings were based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through single baseline food frequency questionnaires (FFQs); thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: In this large Pan-European cohort, higher DSR was inversely associated with total and cause-specific mortality, independent of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and other known dietary risk factors. Our findings support the potential of food (species) biodiversity as a guiding principle of sustainable dietary recommendations and food-based dietary guidelines.

The potential impact of austerity on attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil.

In the recent decades, Brazil has outperformed comparable countries in its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Many of these improvements have been driven by investments in health and social policies. In this article, we aim to identify potential impacts of austerity policies in Brazil on the chances of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and its consequences for population health. Austerity's anticipated impacts are assessed by analysing the change in federal spending on different budget programmes from 2014 to 2017. We collected budget data made publicly available by the Senate. Among the selected 19 programmes, only 4 had their committed budgets increased, in real terms, between 2014 and 2017. The total amount of extra money committed to these four programmes in 2017, above that committed in 2014, was small (BR$9.7 billion). Of the 15 programmes that had budget cuts in the period from 2014 to 2017, the total decrease amounted to BR$60.2 billion (US$15.3 billion). In addition to the overall large budget reduction, it is noteworthy that the largest proportional reductions were in programmes targeted at more vulnerable populations. In conclusion, it seems clear that the current austerity policies in Brazil will probably damage the population's health and increase inequities, and that the possibility of meeting SDG targets is lower in 2018 than it was in 2015.

The potential impact of austerity on attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil

In the recent decades, Brazil has outperformed comparable countries in its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Many of these improvements have been driven by investments in health and social policies. In this article, we aim to identify potential impacts of austerity policies in Brazil on the chances of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and its consequences for population health. Austerity's anticipated impacts are assessed by analysing the change in federal spending on different budget programmes from 2014 to 2017. We collected budget data made publicly available by the Senate. Among the selected 19 programmes, only 4 had their committed budgets increased, in real terms, between 2014 and 2017. The total amount of extra money committed to these four programmes in 2017, above that committed in 2014, was small (BR$9.7 billion). Of the 15 programmes that had budget cuts in the period from 2014 to 2017, the total decrease amounted to BR$60.2 billion (US$15.3 billion). In addition to the overall large budget reduction, it is noteworthy that the largest proportional reductions were in programmes targeted at more vulnerable populations. In conclusion, it seems clear that the current austerity policies in Brazil will probably damage the population's health and increase inequities, and that the possibility of meeting SDG targets is lower in 2018 than it was in 2015.

Socioeconomic inequalities and determinants of oral hygiene status among Urban Indian adolescents.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the socioeconomic inequalities in oral hygiene and to explore the role of various socioeconomic and psychosocial factors as determinants of these inequalities among adolescents residing in Delhi National Capital Territory. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1386 adolescents aged 12-15 years from three different socioeconomic groups according to their area of residence (middle-class areas, resettlement colonies and urban slum colonies). Level of oral hygiene was examined clinically using the Simplified Oral Hygiene Index (OHI-S), and an interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to measure key socio-demographic variables and psychosocial and health-related behaviours. Logistic regression analysis tested the association between area of residence and poor oral hygiene. RESULTS: Poor oral hygiene was observed in 50.2% of the adolescents. There was a socioeconomic gradient in poor oral hygiene, with higher prevalence observed at each level of deprivation. These differences were only partly explained, and the differences between adolescent groups remained statistically significant after adjusting for various demographic variables, standard of living, social capital, social support and health-affecting behaviours (OR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.30-2.76; and OR: 2.50, 95% CI: 1.60-3.92 for adolescents from resettlement colonies and urban slums, respectively, than middle-class adolescents). CONCLUSION: Area of residence emerged as a strong socioeconomic predictor of prevalence of poor oral hygiene among Indian adolescents. Various material, psychosocial and behavioural factors did not fully explain the observed inequalities in poor oral hygiene among different adolescent groups.

Determinants of Socioeconomic Inequalities in Traumatic Dental Injuries among Urban Indian Adolescents.

OBJECTIVES: To assess socioeconomic inequalities in traumatic dental injuries (TDIs) in adolescents in New Delhi and examine the role of material, psychosocial and behavioural factors in explaining these inequalities. METHODS: We conducted a cross sectional study of 1386 adolescents aged between 12-15 years residing in three diverse areas of New Delhi. A non-invasive clinical examination was used to estimate the prevalence of TDIs, and an interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to gather relevant behavioural and socio-demographic data. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess the association between area based socioeconomic position and TDIs. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of TDIs was 10.9%. Social inequalities in the prevalence of TDIs were observed across the adolescent population according to their area of residence. Socio-economic group differences in the prevalence of TDIs remained statistically significant after adjusting for demographic factors, material resources, social capital, social support and health affecting behaviours (OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.75-6.46 and OR 3.99, 95% CI 1.86-8.56 for adolescents from resettlement areas and urban slums respectively in comparison to middle class adolescents). Different psychosocial, material and socio-demographic variables did not attenuate the estimates for the relationship between area socioeconomic position and TDIs. CONCLUSION: Area of residence was a strong predictor of TDIs in adolescents with a higher prevalence in more deprived areas. Social inequalities in TDIs were not explained by psychosocial and behavioural variables. Health promoting policies aimed at improving the physical environment in which adolescents reside might be instrumental in reducing the prevalence of TDIs and associated inequalities.

Type of vegetarian diet, obesity and diabetes in adult Indian population.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the prevalence of obesity and diabetes among adult men and women in India consuming different types of vegetarian diets compared with those consuming non-vegetarian diets. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data of 156,317 adults aged 20-49 years who participated in India's third National Family Health Survey (2005-06). Association between types of vegetarian diet (vegan, lacto-vegetarian, lacto-ovo vegetarian, pesco-vegetarian, semi-vegetarian and non-vegetarian) and self-reported diabetes status and measured body mass index (BMI) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for age, gender, education, household wealth, rural/urban residence, religion, caste, smoking, alcohol use, and television watching. RESULTS: Mean BMI was lowest in pesco-vegetarians (20.3 kg/m2) and vegans (20.5 kg/m2) and highest in lacto-ovo vegetarian (21.0 kg/m2) and lacto-vegetarian (21.2 kg/m2) diets. Prevalence of diabetes varied from 0.9% (95% CI: 0.8-1.1) in person consuming lacto-vegetarian, lacto-ovo vegetarian (95% CI:0.6-1.3) and semi-vegetarian (95% CI:0.7-1.1) diets and was highest in those persons consuming a pesco-vegetarian diet (1.4%; 95% CI:1.0-2.0). Consumption of a lacto- (OR:0.67;95% CI:0.58-0.76;p < 0.01), lacto-ovo (OR:0.70; 95% CI:0.51-0.96;p = 0.03) and semi-vegetarian (OR:0.77; 95% CI:0.60-0.98; p = 0.03) diet was associated with a lower likelihood of diabetes than a non-vegetarian diet in the adjusted analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, nationally representative sample of Indian adults, lacto-, lacto-ovo and semi-vegetarian diets were associated with a lower likelihood of diabetes. These findings may assist in the development of interventions to address the growing burden of overweight/obesity and diabetes in Indian population. However, prospective studies with better measures of dietary intake and clinical measures of diabetes are needed to clarify this relationship.

The contribution of active travel (walking and cycling) in children to overall physical activity levels: a national cross sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the contribution of active travel to and from school to children's overall physical activity levels in England. METHOD: Logistic regression models examining associations between active travel (walked, or cycled, to/from school at least once in the last week) and achievement of physical activity recommendations (≥60 min/d daily) in 4,468 children aged 5-15y (303 with valid accelerometry data) participating in the nationally-representative Health Survey for England 2008. RESULTS: The 64% of children who walked and the 3% who cycled to/from school were more active than the 33% who did neither. Typical walkers came from a deprived area and were less likely to have a limiting illness; typical cyclists were older, male, and most likely to meet the recommendations. For self-reported activity, time spent cycling to/from school contributed more to meeting the recommendations (OR1.31, 1.09-1.59) than time spent walking to/from school (OR1.08, 1.02-1.15) or in sports (OR1.17, 95% CI 1.14-1.20). Time spent walking to school (OR1.80, 1.41-2.30) and in sports (OR1.10, 1.01-1.20) were significantly associated with being in the highest tertile actigraph-measured activity. CONCLUSION: Children who reported walking or cycling to school were more active. Longitudinal studies are required to ascertain whether encouraging active travel affects less active children.

Risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes prescribed oral antidiabetes drugs: retrospective cohort study using UK general practice research database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk of incident myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and all cause mortality associated with prescription of oral antidiabetes drugs. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practice research database, 1990-2005. PARTICIPANTS: 91,521 people with diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and all cause mortality. Person time intervals for drug treatment were categorised by drug class, excluding non-drug intervals and intervals for insulin. RESULTS: 3588 incident cases of myocardial infarction, 6900 of congestive heart failure, and 18,548 deaths occurred. Compared with metformin, monotherapy with first or second generation sulphonylureas was associated with a significant 24% to 61% excess risk for all cause mortality (P<0.001) and second generation sulphonylureas with an 18% to 30% excess risk for congestive heart failure (P=0.01 and P<0.001). The thiazolidinediones were not associated with risk of myocardial infarction; pioglitazone was associated with a significant 31% to 39% lower risk of all cause mortality (P=0.02 to P<0.001) compared with metformin. Among the thiazolidinediones, rosiglitazone was associated with a 34% to 41% higher risk of all cause mortality (P=0.14 to P=0.01) compared with pioglitazone. A large number of potential confounders were accounted for in the study; however, the possibility of residual confounding or confounding by indication (differences in prognostic factors between drug groups) cannot be excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a relatively unfavourable risk profile of sulphonylureas compared with metformin for all outcomes examined. Pioglitazone was associated with reduced all cause mortality compared with metformin. Pioglitazone also had a favourable risk profile compared with rosiglitazone; although this requires replication in other studies, it may have implications for prescribing within this class of drugs.