Effects of wind turbine dimensions on the collision risk of raptors: A simulation approach based on flight height distributions.

Wind energy development is a key component of climate change mitigation. However, birds collide with wind turbines, and this additional mortality may negatively impact populations. Collision risk could be reduced by informed selection of turbine dimensions, but the effects of turbine dimensions are still unknown for many species. As analyses of mortality data have several limitations, we applied a simulation approach based on flight height distributions of six European raptor species. To obtain accurate flight height data, we used high-frequency GPS tracking (GPS tags deployed on 275 individuals). The effects of ground clearance and rotor diameter of wind turbines on collision risk were studied using the Band collision risk model. Five species had a unimodal flight height distribution, with a mode below 25 m above ground level, while Short-toed Eagle showed a more uniform distribution with a weak mode between 120 and 260 m. The proportion of positions within 32-200 m ranged from 11 % in Marsh Harrier to 54 % in Red Kite. With increasing ground clearance (from 20 to 100 m), collision risk decreased in the species with low mode (-56 to -66 %), but increased in Short-toed Eagle (+38 %). With increasing rotor diameter (from 50 to 160 m) at fixed ground clearance, the collision risk per turbine increased in all species (+151 to +558 %), while the collision risk per MW decreased in the species with low mode (-50 % to -57 %). These results underpin that wind turbine dimensions can have substantial effects on the collision risk of raptors. As the effects varied between species, wind energy planning should consider the composition of the local bird community to optimise wind turbine dimensions. For species with a low mode of flight height, the collision risk for a given total power capacity could be reduced by increasing ground clearance, and using fewer turbines with larger diameter.

Both movements and breeding performance are affected by individual experience in the Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata.

Movement is a key behaviour to better understand how individuals respond to their environment. Movement behaviours are affected by both extrinsic factors that individuals face, such as weather conditions, and intrinsic factors, such as sex and experience. Because of the energy costs it entails, movement behaviours can have direct consequences on an individual's demographic parameters-and ultimately on population dynamics. However, the relationship between extrinsic factors, intrinsic factors, daily movement behaviour and demographic parameters such as breeding performance is poorly known, in particular for central place forager territorial species. We investigated here the link between movement behaviours and breeding performance of the French population of Bonelli's eagle (Aquila fasciata), a territorial and sedentary long-lived raptor, and how this link may depend on extrinsic and intrinsic factors. By using data from annual monitoring of breeding performance for the population and GPS tracking of 48 individuals (26 males and 22 females), we found that the breeding performance of this population was mainly driven by whether a new individual was recruited into the territory, and only slightly by weather conditions. Movement behaviours (proportion of time in flight, range of movement and straightness of trajectories) showed large between-individual variation. Those behaviours were related with weather conditions (wind and rainfall) at a daily scale, as well as with individual's experience. We found only one significant correlation between movements and breeding performance: male Bonelli's eagles spending more time flying during chick-rearing phase had lower productivity. Movement behaviours and breeding performance were also indirectly linked through individual's experience, with more experienced birds having better breeding success and a shorter range of movement and spent less time in flight. This suggests that experienced individuals progressively acquire knowledge of their breeding territory, are more efficient in finding prey, and adapt their foraging strategies to weather conditions to minimise energy costs, allowing them higher breeding performance.

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Seabird and reef conservation must include coral islands.

Tropical seabirds exert key roles in reef ecosystems but face growing threats from climate change, especially on coral reef islands (CRIs). Therefore, we advocate for a more comprehensive, global data exchange on CRIs and CRI-dependent seabirds and outline steps for improving their study and conservation.

Enhancing monitoring and transboundary collaboration for conserving migratory species under global change: The priority case of the red kite.

Calls for urgent action to conserve biodiversity under global change are increasing, and conservation of migratory species in this context poses special challenges. In the last two decades the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) has provided a framework for several subsidiary instruments including action plans for migratory bird species, but the effectiveness and transferability of these plans remain unclear. Such laws and policies have been credited with positive outcomes for the conservation of migratory species, but the lack of international coordination and on-ground implementation pose major challenges. While research on migratory populations has received growing attention, considerably less emphasis has been given to integrating ecological information throughout the annual cycle for examining strategies to conserve migratory species at multiple scales in the face of global change. We fill this gap through a case study examining the ecological status and conservation of a migratory raptor and facultative scavenger, the red kite (Milvus milvus), whose current breeding range is limited to Europe and is associated with agricultural landscapes and restricted to the temperate zone. Based on our review, conservation actions have been successful at recovering red kite populations within certain regions. Populations however remain depleted along the southern-most edge of the geographic range where many migratory red kites from northern strongholds overwinter. This led us to a forward-looking and integrated strategy that emphasizes international coordination involving researchers and conservation practitioners to enhance the science-policy-action interface. We identify and explore key issues for conserving the red kite under global change, including enhancing conservation actions within and outside protected areas, recovering depleted populations, accounting for climate change, and transboundary coordination in adaptive conservation and management actions. The integrated conservation strategy is sufficiently general such that it can be adapted to inform conservation of other highly mobile species subject to global change.

Vegetation increases abundances of ground and canopy arthropods in Mediterranean vineyards.

The decline of arthropod populations observed in many parts of the world is a major component of the sixth mass extinction with intensive agriculture being one of its main drivers. Biodiversity-friendly farming practices are taking centre stage in the recovery process. In vineyards, vegetation cover is commonly used for production purposes, to reduce soil compaction by machinery use and soil erosion. Here we examined the effects of vegetation cover and soil management on the abundance of ground- (spiders, beetles, Hemiptera and harvestmen) and canopy-dwelling (wild bees, green lacewings, beetles and Hemiptera) arthropods in three categories of vineyards: (i) vineyards with no vegetation, (ii) partially vegetated (every second inter-row is vegetated) and (iii) all inter-rows are vegetated. We recorded a general positive effect of a decrease in soil perturbation intensity and corresponding higher vegetation cover on arthropod abundance. Plant species richness was the most important vegetation parameter, with a positive effect on spiders, harvestmen, hemipterans and beetles (ground and canopy) abundances. Using a path analysis, we also highlighted the central role of inter-row vegetation management in trophic and non-trophic relationships between vegetation and arthropods, and between arthropod groups. Our results demonstrate the benefits of a softer soil management preserving a diverse vegetation cover for the conservation of arthropods in Mediterranean vineyards.

Make flying-fox hunting sustainable again: Comparing expected demographic effectiveness and hunters' acceptance of more restrictive regulations.

Hunting is a major threat to many species of wildlife. However, managing hunting systems to ensure their sustainability requires a thorough demographic knowledge about the impact of hunting. Here we develop a framework integrating ecological, modelling and sociological data to achieve a sustainability assessment of flying-fox hunting in New Caledonia and assess the relative merits of alternative management policies. Using age-specific stochastic population models, we found that the current annual hunting rate [5.5-8.5%] is likely to lead to a severe decline (- 79%) of Pteropus populations over the next 30 years. However, a majority of hunters surveyed (60%) were willing to soften their practices, offering an opportunity for adaptive management. Recurrent temporary hunting ban (at least 1 year out of 2) in combination with protected areas (≥ 25%) appears as the most effective and most accepted management option. Our integrative approach appears to be a promising method for ensuring that traditional hunting systems can remain sustainable in a rapidly changing world.

Proximate causes and fitness consequences of double brooding in female barn owls.

Multiple brooding, reproducing twice or more per year, is an important component of life-history strategies. However, what proximate factors drive the frequency of multiple brooding and its fitness consequences for parents and offspring remains poorly known. Using long-term longitudinal data, we investigated double brooding in a barn owl population in France. We assessed the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic factors and the consequences of double brooding on fledgling recruitment and female lifetime reproductive success. The occurrence of double brooding in the population, ranging from 0 to 87%, was positively related to the number of rodent prey stored at the nest. Females laying early in the season were more likely to breed twice and the probability of double brooding increased with smaller initial brood size, female age and the storage of wood mice at the nest early in the season. Fledglings from first broods recruited more often (8.2%) than those from single broods (3.8%) or second broods (3.3%), but this was primarily the consequence of laying dates, not brood type per se. Females producing two broods within a year, at least once in their lifetime, had higher lifetime reproductive success and produced more local recruits than females that did not (15.6 ± 8.1 vs. 6.1 ± 3.8 fledglings, 0.96 ± 1.2 vs. 0.24 ± 0.6 recruits). Our results suggests that the fitness benefits of double brooding exceed costs and that within-year variability in double brooding may be related to heterogeneity in individual/territory quality.

Quantifying the contribution of immigration to population dynamics: a review of methods, evidence and perspectives in birds and mammals.

The demography of a population is often reduced to the apparent (or local) survival of individuals and their realised fecundity within a study area defined according to logistical constraints rather than landscape features. Such demographics are then used to infer whether a local population contributes positively to population dynamics across a wider landscape context. Such a simplistic approach ignores a fundamental process underpinning population dynamics: dispersal. Indeed, it has long been accepted that immigration contributed by dispersers that emigrated from neighbouring populations may strongly influence the net growth of a local population. To date however, we lack a clear picture of how widely immigration rate varies both among and within populations, in relation to extrinsic and intrinsic ecological conditions, even for the best-studied avian and mammalian populations. This empirical knowledge gap precludes the emergence of a sound conceptual framework that ought to inform conservation and population ecology. This review, conducted on both birds and mammals, has thus three complementary objectives. First, we describe and evaluate the relative merits of methods used to quantify immigration and how they relate to widely applicable metrics. We identify two simple and unifying metrics to measure immigration: the immigration rate it defined as the ratio of the number of immigrants present in the population at time t + 1 and the total breeding population in year t, and πt , the proportion of immigrants among new recruits (i.e. new breeders). Two recently developed methods are likely to provide the most valuable data on immigration in the near future: individual parentage (rather than population) assignments based on genetic sampling, and spatially explicit integrated population models combining multiple sources of demographic data (survival, fecundity and population counts). Second, we report on a systematic literature review of studies providing a quantitative measure of immigration. Although the diversity of methods employed precludes detailed analyses, it appears that the number of immigrants exceeds locally born individuals in recruitment for most avian populations (median πt  = 0.57, N = 45 estimates from 37 studies), a figure twofold higher than estimated for mammalian populations (median πt  = 0.26, N = 33 estimates from 11 studies). Third, recent quantitative studies reveal that immigration can be the main driver of temporal variation in population growth rates, across a wide array of demographic and spatial contexts. To what extent immigration acts as a regulatory process has however been considered only rarely to date and deserves more attention. Overall, it is likely that most populations benefit from immigrants without necessarily being sink populations. Furthermore, we suggest that quantitative estimates of immigration should be core to future demographic studies and plead for more empirical evidence about the ways in which immigration interacts with local demographic processes to shape population dynamics. Finally, we discuss how to tackle spatial population dynamics by exploring, beyond the classical source-sink framework, the extent to which populations exchange individuals according to spatial scale and type of population distribution throughout the landscape.

Monitoring hunted species of cultural significance: Estimates of trends, population sizes and harvesting rates of flying-fox (Pteropus sp.) in New Caledonia.

Assessing population trends and their underlying factors is critical to propose efficient conservation actions. This assessment can be particularly challenging when dealing with highly mobile, shy and nocturnal animals such as flying-foxes. Here we investigated the dynamics of hunted populations of Pteropus ornatus and P. tonganus in the Northern Province of New Caledonia. First, an ethno-ecological survey involving 219 local experts identified 494 flying-fox roosts. Current status was assessed for 379 of them, among which 125 were no longer occupied, representing a loss of 33% over ca. 40 years. Second, species-specific counts conducted at 35 roosts, and a sample of animals killed by hunters, revealed that the endemic species, P. ornatus, was dominant (68.5%). Between 2010 and 2016, 30 roosts were counted annually during the pre-parturition period. Roosts size averaged 1,425 ± 2,151 individuals (N = 180 counts) and showed high among-year variations (roost-specific CV = 37-162%). If we recorded significant inter-annual variation, we did not detect a significant decline over the 7-yr period, although one roost went possibly extinct. Population size of the two species combined was estimated at 338,000-859,000 individuals distributed over ca. 400 roosts in the Northern Province. Flying-foxes are popular game species and constitute traditional food for all communities of New Caledonia. Annual bags derived from a food survey allowed us to estimate harvesting rates at 5-14%. Such a level of harvesting for species with a 'slow' demography, the occurrence of poaching and illegal trade, suggest the current species use might not be sustainable and further investigations are critically needed.

Invasive rats strengthen predation pressure on bird eggs in a South Pacific island rainforest.

Invasive rats (Rattus spp.) are known to have pervasive impacts on island birds, particularly on their nesting success. To conserve or restore bird populations, numerous invasive rat control or eradication projects are undertaken on islands worldwide. However, such projects represent a huge investment and the decision-making process requires proper assessment of rat impacts. Here, we assessed the influence of two sympatric invasive rats (Rattus rattus and R. exulans) on native bird eggs in a New Caledonian rainforest, using artificial bird-nest monitoring. A total of 178 artificial nests containing two eggs of three different sizes were placed either on the ground or 1.5 m high and monitored at the start of the birds' breeding season. Overall, 12.4% of the nests were depredated during the first 7 days. At site 1, where nests were monitored during 16 days, 41.8% of the nests were depredated. The main predator was the native crow Corvus moneduloides, responsible for 62.9% of the overall predation events. Rats were responsible for only 22.9% of the events, and ate only small and medium eggs at both heights. Our experiment suggests that in New Caledonia, predation pressure by rats strengthens overall bird-nest predation, adding to that by native predators. Experimental rat control operations may allow reduced predation pressure on nests as well as the recording of biodiversity responses after rat population reduction.

Knocking on Heaven's Door: Are Novel Invaders Necessarily Facing Naïve Native Species on Islands?

The impact of alien predator species on insular native biota has often been attributed to island prey naïveté (i.e. lack of, or inefficient, anti-predator behavior). Only rarely, however, has the concept of island prey naïveté been tested, and then only a posteriori (i.e. hundreds or thousands of years after alien species introduction). The presence of native or anciently introduced predators or competitors may be crucial for the recognition and development of adaptive behavior toward unknown predators or competitors of the same archetype (i.e. a set of species that occupy a similar ecological niche and show similar morphological and behavioral traits when interacting with other species). Here, we tested whether two squamates endemic to New Caledonia, a skink, Caledoniscincus austrocaledonicus, and a gecko, Bavayia septuiclavis, recognized and responded to the odor of two major invaders introduced into the Pacific islands, but not yet into New Caledonia. We chose one predator, the small Indian mongoose Herpestes javanicus and one competitor, the cane toad Rhinella marina, which belong respectively to the same archetype as the following two species already introduced into New Caledonia in the nineteenth century: the feral cat Felis catus and the golden bell frog Litoria aurea. Our experiment reveals that geckos are naïve with respect to the odors of both an unknown predator and an unknown competitor, as well as to the odors of a predator and a competitor they have lived with for centuries. In contrast, skinks seem to have lost some naïveté regarding the odor of a predator they have lived with for centuries and seem "predisposed" to avoid the odor of an unknown potential competitor. These results indicate that insular species living in contact with invasive alien species for centuries may be, although not systematically, predisposed toward developing adaptive behavior with respect to species belonging to the same archetype and introduced into their native range.

Food availability and predation risk, rather than intrinsic attributes, are the main factors shaping the reproductive decisions of a long-lived predator.

Deciphering the causes of variation in reproductive success is a fundamental issue in ecology, as the number of offspring produced is an important driver of individual fitness and population dynamics. Little is known, however, about how different factors interact to drive variation in reproduction, such as whether an individual's response to extrinsic conditions (e.g. food availability or predation) varies according to its intrinsic attributes (e.g. age, previous allocation of resources towards reproduction). We used 29 years of reproductive data from marked female tawny owls and natural variation in food availability (field vole) and predator abundance (northern goshawk) to quantify the extent to which extrinsic and intrinsic factors interact to influence owl reproductive traits (breeding propensity, clutch size and nest abandonment). Extrinsic and intrinsic factors appeared to interact to affect breeding propensity (which accounted for 83% of the variation in owl reproductive success). Breeding propensity increased with vole density, although increasing goshawk abundance reduced the strength of this relationship. Owls became slightly more likely to breed as they aged, although this was only apparent for individuals who had fledged chicks the year before. Owls laid larger clutches when food was more abundant. When owls were breeding in territories less exposed to goshawk predation, 99·5% of all breeding attempts reached the fledging stage. In contrast, the probability of breeding attempts reaching the fledging stage in territories more exposed to goshawk predation depended on the amount of resources an owl had already allocated towards reproduction (averaging 87·7% for owls with clutches of 1-2 eggs compared to 97·5% for owls with clutches of 4-6 eggs). Overall, our results suggested that changes in extrinsic conditions (predominantly food availability, but also predator abundance) had the greatest influence on owl reproduction. In response to deteriorating extrinsic conditions (fewer voles and more goshawks), owls appeared to breed more frequently, but allocated fewer resources per breeding attempt. However, intrinsic attributes also appeared to have a relatively small influence on how an individual responded to variation in extrinsic conditions, which indicates that owl reproductive decisions were shaped by a complex series of extrinsic and intrinsic trade-offs.

Species Distribution 2.0: An Accurate Time- and Cost-Effective Method of Prospection Using Street View Imagery.

Species occurrence data provide crucial information for biodiversity studies in the current context of global environmental changes. Such studies often rely on a limited number of occurrence data collected in the field and on pseudo-absences arbitrarily chosen within the study area, which reduces the value of these studies. To overcome this issue, we propose an alternative method of prospection using geo-located street view imagery (SVI). Following a standardised protocol of virtual prospection using both vertical (aerial photographs) and horizontal (SVI) perceptions, we have surveyed 1097 randomly selected cells across Spain (0.1x0.1 degree, i.e. 20% of Spain) for the presence of Arundo donax L. (Poaceae). In total we have detected A. donax in 345 cells, thus substantially expanding beyond the now two-centuries-old field-derived record, which described A. donax only 216 cells. Among the field occurrence cells, 81.1% were confirmed by SVI prospection to be consistent with species presence. In addition, we recorded, by SVI prospection, 752 absences, i.e. cells where A. donax was considered absent. We have also compared the outcomes of climatic niche modeling based on SVI data against those based on field data. Using generalized linear models fitted with bioclimatic predictors, we have found SVI data to provide far more compelling results in terms of niche modeling than does field data as classically used in SDM. This original, cost- and time-effective method provides the means to accurately locate highly visible taxa, reinforce absence data, and predict species distribution without long and expensive in situ prospection. At this time, the majority of available SVI data is restricted to human-disturbed environments that have road networks. However, SVI is becoming increasingly available in natural areas, which means the technique has considerable potential to become an important factor in future biodiversity studies.

Identifying effective actions to guide volunteer-based and nationwide conservation efforts for a ground-nesting farmland bird.

1. Modern farming practices threaten wildlife in different ways, and failure to identify the complexity of multiple threats acting in synergy may result in ineffective management. To protect ground-nesting birds in farmland, monitoring and mitigating impacts of mechanical harvesting is crucial. 2. Here, we use 6 years of data from a nationwide volunteer-based monitoring scheme of the Montagu's harrier, a ground-nesting raptor, in French farmlands. We assess the effectiveness of alternative nest protection measures and map their potential benefit to the species. 3. We show that unprotected nests in cultivated land are strongly negatively affected by harvesting and thus require active management. Further, we show that protection from harvesting alone (e.g. by leaving a small unharvested buffer around the nest) is impaired by post-harvest predation at nests that become highly conspicuous after harvest. Measures that simultaneously protect from harvesting and predation (by adding a fence around the nest) significantly enhance nest productivity. 4. The map of expected gain from nest protection in relation to available volunteers' workforce pinpoints large areas of high expected gain from nest protection that are not matched by equally high workforce availability. This mismatch suggests that the impact of nest protection can be further improved by increasing volunteer efforts in key areas where they are low relative to the expected gain they could have. 5.Synthesis and applications. This study shows that synergistic interplay of multiple factors (e.g. mechanical harvesting and predation) may completely undermine the success of well-intentioned conservation efforts. However, identifying areas where the greatest expected gains can be achieved relative to effort expended can minimize the risk of wasted volunteer actions. Overall, this study underscores the importance of citizen science for collecting large-scale data useful for producing science and ultimately informs large-scale evidence-based conservation actions within an adaptive management framework.

Age and sex-selective predation moderate the overall impact of predators.

Currently, there is no general agreement about the extent to which predators impact prey population dynamics and it is often poorly predicted by predation rates and species abundances. This could, in part be caused by variation in the type of selective predation occurring. Notably, if predation is selective on categories of individuals that contribute little to future generations, it may moderate the impact of predation on prey population dynamics. However, despite its prevalence, selective predation has seldom been studied in this context. Using recoveries of ringed tawny owls (Strix aluco) predated by 'superpredators', northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) as they colonized the area, we investigated the extent to which predation was sex and age-selective. Predation of juvenile owls was disproportionately high. Amongst adults, predation was strongly biased towards females and predation risk appeared to increase with age. This implies age-selective predation may shape the decline in survival with age, observed in tawny owls. To determine whether selective predation can modulate the overall impact of predation, age-based population matrix models were used to simulate the impact of five different patterns of age-selective predation, including the pattern actually observed in the study site. The overall impact on owl population size varied by up to 50%, depending on the pattern of selective predation. The simulation of the observed pattern of predation had a relatively small impact on population size, close to the least harmful scenario, predation on juveniles only. The actual changes in owl population size and structure observed during goshawk colonization were also analysed. Owl population size and immigration were unrelated to goshawk abundance. However, goshawk abundance appeared to interact with owl food availability to have a delayed effect on recruitment into the population. This study provides strong evidence to suggest that predation of other predators is both age and sex-selective and that selective predation of individuals with a low reproductive value may mitigate the overall impact of predators on prey population dynamics. Consequently, our results highlight how accounting for the type of selective predation occurring is likely to improve future predictions of the overall impact of predation.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.

Europe-wide dampening of population cycles in keystone herbivores.

Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.

Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics: how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

The eco-evolutionary dynamics of dispersal are recognised as key in determining the responses of populations to environmental changes. Here, by developing a novel modelling approach, we show that predators are likely to have evolved to emigrate more often and become more selective over their destination patch when their prey species exhibit spatio-temporally complex dynamics. We additionally demonstrate that the cost of dispersal can vary substantially across space and time. Perhaps as a consequence of current environmental change, many key prey species are currently exhibiting major shifts in their spatio-temporal dynamics. By exploring similar shifts in silico, we predict that predator populations will be most vulnerable when prey dynamics shift from stable to complex. The more sophisticated dispersal rules, and greater variance therein, that evolve under complex dynamics will enable persistence across a broader range of prey dynamics than the rules which evolve under relatively stable prey conditions.

Natal conditions alter age-specific reproduction but not survival or senescence in a long-lived bird of prey.

1. Natal conditions and senescence are two major factors shaping life-history traits of wild animals. However, such factors have rarely been investigated together, and it remains largely unknown whether they interact to affect age-specific performance. 2. We used 27 years of longitudinal data collected on tawny owls with estimates of prey density (field voles) from Kielder Forest (UK) to investigate how prey density at birth affects ageing patterns in reproduction and survival. 3. Natal conditions experienced by tawny owls, measured in terms of vole density, dramatically varied among cohorts and explained 87% of the deviance in first-year apparent survival (annual estimates ranging from 0·07 to 0·33). 4. We found evidence for senescence in survival for females as well as for males. Model-averaged estimates showed that adult survival probability declined linearly with age for females from age 1. In contrast, male survival probability, lower on average than for female, declined after a plateau at age 1-3. 5. We also found evidence for reproductive senescence (number of offspring). For females, reproductive performance increased until age 9 then declined. Males showed an earlier decline in reproductive performance with an onset of senescence at age 3. 6. Long-lasting effects of natal environmental conditions were sex specific. Female reproductive performance was substantially related to natal conditions (difference of 0·24 fledgling per breeding event between females born in the first or third quartile of vole density), whereas male performance was not. We found no evidence for tawny owls born in years with low prey density having accelerated rates of senescence. 7. Our results, combined with previous findings, suggest the way natal environmental conditions affect senescence varies not only across species but also within species according to gender and the demographic trait considered.