Determinants of fertility in urban and rural Kenya: estimates and a simulation of the impact of education policy.

PIP: Fertility behavior and population growth and its impact on economics in Kenya are a concern because of recent trends. The aim of this research study was to examine the impact of multiple factors on fertility in urban and rural areas based on the 1984 Kenya contraceptive Prevalence Survey. Simulation models were used to project the number of births expected with the current educational program. The expectation was that increasing female education in rural areas would have an impact on birth probabilities. Policy implications are discussed in terms of increasing educational expenditures, particularly for rural women. The empirical model selected was based on theories on proximate determinants, demographic effects, and neoclassical models. A probit model was used to estimate whether or not a woman had a child in the year preceding the survey. Explanatory variables were economic (female employment and years of schooling), biological (mother's age and child mortality), and cultural (marital state, number of live births, and religion). The sample included 6405 women aged 15-49 years. Married urban women were 37% more likely than unmarried urban women to have given birth. Married rural women in monogamous marriages were 23% more likely to have given birth than their unmarried counterparts. The number in a marital union of wives did not affect the probability of birth in urban areas; the effect was quite small in rural areas. Probability of birth increased until age 25 in urban areas and to age 28 in rural areas. Previous live births had a small impact, and the inhibiting effect of an additional child is 2.7 times larger in urban than in rural areas. Only in urban areas did employment reduce the probability of a birth (by 7.4%). In rural areas, increases in education after the primary level were related to a decline in the probability of a birth (for a 26-year old woman there is a reduction in the probability of .18). The fertility rate of a woman completing secondary school was 3.5 and 7.8 for a woman completing primary school. There were no differences in urban Nairobi and Mombasa. The total fertility rate should decline by 25% between 1984 and 2014, and should fall further based on educational increases which affect family planning use, employment, and infant mortality. By 2014, the savings in education and related expenses for reduction in births of 5.8 million will be considerable.^ieng

Macroeconomic influences on migration.

"The changing composition and magnitude of internal migration flows are of critical importance in determining the potential economic growth of a region. Yet, there can be little doubt that the business cycle has a significant influence on migration flows and propensities. This paper explores the effects of macroeconomic events on migration [within Canada] through an examination of the extent of the influence of the national and regional business cycle on the in-, out- and net-migration rates." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)

Serial correlation in multiregional migration models.

"In this paper, we outline the specification and estimation of a time series of multiregional net-migration equations subject to first-order serial correlation. We show that the necessary nonstochastic adding-up constraint, which requires that net migration in the system sum to zero, imposes restrictions on the serial-correlation coefficients. We estimate equations under these restrictions using data for the ten Canadian provinces for the period 1962-1985. The results confirm the significance of the serial-correlation coefficient and, hence, the importance of incorporating this correction in future time-series models of multiregional migration."

Multiregional estimation of gross internal migration flows.

"A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total inmigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified."

Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data.

"In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model."

Migration in an economic-demographic model for the Canadian provinces.

"This paper is a description of the structure of a multiregion economic-demographic model for the Canadian provinces. An important part of the demographic model is the estimation of net migration equations based on a human capital approach and incorporating the adding-up constraint that arises since the sum of the net migration flows across all provinces must be 0 in each period. These endogenous migration flows allow for variables from the economic model (wage rates and unemployment rates) to influence the source population, the labour force and, therefore, the unemployment rate and other variables in the economic model." The model is used in simulation experiments in order to illustrate the interaction between economic and demographic factors and how this interaction affects the impact of policies.

Net migration estimation in an extended, multiregional gravity model.

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.

Migration in an interregional macroeconometric model of the United States: will net outmigration from the Northeast continue?

"This paper reports on the specification, estimation and simulation of an interregional net migration model of the United States. The model makes use of time series data including, as explanatory variables, wage rates, unemployment rates, and population density. Simulation experiments are undertaken by joining the migration model with a multi-regional macroeconometric model to examine the effect [on] migration patterns of changes in national economic growth. In particular, the net outmigration trends in the Northeast are examined under alternative scenarios including faster national economic growth and a different energy pricing policy."