ABSTRACT
Purpose: Survival of acute leukemia (AL) patients following umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) is dependent on an array of individual features. Integrative models for risk assessment are lacking. We sought to develop a scoring system for prediction of overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) at 2 years following UCBT in AL patients.Experimental Design: The study cohort included 3,140 pediatric and adult AL UCBT patients from the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation and Eurocord registries. Patients received single or double cord blood units. The dataset was geographically split into a derivation (n = 2,362, 65%) and validation set (n = 778, 35%). Top predictors of OS were identified using the Random Survival Forest algorithm and introduced into a Cox regression model, which served for the construction of the UCBT risk score.Results: The score includes nine variables: disease status, diagnosis, cell dose, age, center experience, cytomegalovirus serostatus, degree of HLA mismatch, previous autograft, and anti-thymocyte globulin administration. Over the validation set an increasing score was associated with decreasing probabilities for 2 years OS and LFS, ranging from 70.21% [68.89-70.71, 95% confidence interval (CI)] and 64.76% (64.33-65.86, 95% CI) to 14.78% (10.91-17.41) and 18.11% (14.40-22.30), respectively. It stratified patients into six distinct risk groups. The score's discrimination (AUC) over multiple imputations of the validation set was 68.76 (68.19-69.04, range) and 65.78 (65.20-66.28) for 2 years OS and LFS, respectively.Conclusions: The UCBT score is a simple tool for risk stratification of AL patients undergoing UCBT. Widespread application of the score will require further independent validation. Clin Cancer Res; 23(21); 6478-86. ©2017 AACR.
Subject(s)
Cord Blood Stem Cell Transplantation , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/pathology , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/therapy , Prognosis , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Disease-Free Survival , Female , Graft vs Host Disease/etiology , Graft vs Host Disease/pathology , Humans , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/classification , Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/complications , Male , Precision Medicine , Proportional Hazards Models , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported conflicting results on the impact of high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) and autologous stem cell transplantation in the first-line treatment of patients with aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). METHODS: We performed a systematic meta-analysis to assess the efficacy HDCT compared to conventional chemotherapy in aggressive NHL patients with regard to complete response (CR), overall survival (OS), event-free survival (EFS), toxicity, and impact of the age-adjusted International Prognostic Index (aaIPI) risk factors. We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and other databases (1/1990 to 1/2005). Hazard ratio (HR), relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the fixed effect model. RESULTS: Fifteen RCTs including 2728 patients were identified. HDCT improved CR when compared to conventional chemotherapy (RR 1.11, CI 1.04-1.18). Overall, there was no evidence for HDCT to improve OS (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.92-1.19) or EFS (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.80-1.05) when compared with conventional chemotherapy. However, subgroup analysis indicated OS differences (p=0.032) between good (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.02-2.09) and poor risk (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.81-1.11) patients. Conflicting results were reported for poor risk patients, where some studies reported improved and others reduced OS and EFS after HDCT. CONCLUSION: There was no evidence that HDCT improved OS and EFS in good risk NHL patients. The evidence for poor risk patients is inconclusive. HDCT should not be further investigated in good risk patients with aggressive NHL but high quality studies in poor risk patients are warranted.
