Threshold Cascade Dynamics in Coevolving Networks.

We study the coevolutionary dynamics of network topology and social complex contagion using a threshold cascade model. Our coevolving threshold model incorporates two mechanisms: the threshold mechanism for the spreading of a minority state such as a new opinion, idea, or innovation and the network plasticity, implemented as the rewiring of links to cut the connections between nodes in different states. Using numerical simulations and a mean-field theoretical analysis, we demonstrate that the coevolutionary dynamics can significantly affect the cascade dynamics. The domain of parameters, i.e., the threshold and mean degree, for which global cascades occur shrinks with an increasing network plasticity, indicating that the rewiring process suppresses the onset of global cascades. We also found that during evolution, non-adopting nodes form denser connections, resulting in a wider degree distribution and a non-monotonous dependence of cascades sizes on plasticity.

Identifying influential subpopulations in metapopulation epidemic models using message-passing theory.

Identifying influential subpopulations in metapopulation epidemic models has far-reaching potential implications for surveillance and intervention policies of a global pandemic. However, there is a lack of methods to determine influential nodes in metapopulation models based on a rigorous mathematical background. In this study, we derive the message-passing theory for metapopulation modeling and propose a method to determine influential spreaders. Based on our analysis, we identify the most dangerous city as a potential seed of a pandemic when applied to real-world data. Moreover, we particularly assess the relative importance of various sources of heterogeneity at the subpopulation level, e.g., the number of connections and mobility patterns, to determine properties of spreading processes. We validate our theory with extensive numerical simulations on empirical and synthetic networks considering various mobility and transmission probabilities. We confirm that our theory can accurately predict influential subpopulations in metapopulation models.

Substrate effect on hydrogen evolution reaction in two-dimensional Mo2C monolayers.

The physical and chemical properties of atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) materials can be modified by the substrates. In this study, the substrate effect on the electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) in 2D Mo2C monolayers was investigated using first principles calculations. The isolated Mo2C monolayer shows large variation in HER activity depending on hydrogen coverage: it has relatively low activity at low hydrogen coverage but high activity at high hydrogen coverage. Among Ag, Au, Cu, and graphene substrates, the HER activity is improved on the Ag and Cu substrates especially at low hydrogen coverage, while the effects of the Au and graphene substrates on the HER activity are insignificant. The improvement is caused by the charge redistribution in the Mo2C layer on the substrate, and therefore the HER activity becomes high for any hydrogen coverage on the Ag and Cu substrates. Our results suggest that, in two-dimensional electrocatalysis, the substrate has a degree of freedom to tune the catalytic activity.

Double transitions and hysteresis in heterogeneous contagion processes.

In many real-world contagion phenomena, the number of contacts to spreading entities for adoption varies for different individuals. Therefore, we study a model of contagion dynamics with heterogeneous adoption thresholds. We derive mean-field equations for the fraction of adopted nodes and obtain phase diagrams in terms of the transmission probability and fraction of nodes requiring multiple contacts for adoption. We find a double phase transition exhibiting a continuous transition and a subsequent discontinuous jump in the fraction of adopted nodes because of the heterogeneity in adoption thresholds. Additionally, we observe hysteresis curves in the fraction of adopted nodes owing to adopted nodes in the densely connected core in a network.

Interplay between degree and Boolean rules in the stability of Boolean networks.

Empirical evidence has revealed that biological regulatory systems are controlled by high-level coordination between topology and Boolean rules. In this study, we look at the joint effects of degree and Boolean functions on the stability of Boolean networks. To elucidate these effects, we focus on (1) the correlation between the sensitivity of Boolean variables and the degree and (2) the coupling between canalizing inputs and degree. We find that negatively correlated sensitivity with respect to local degree enhances the stability of Boolean networks against external perturbations. We also demonstrate that the effects of canalizing inputs can be amplified when they coordinate with high in-degree nodes. Numerical simulations confirm the accuracy of our analytical predictions at both the node and network levels.

Message-passing theory for cooperative epidemics.

The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the phenomenology of epidemic spreading, leading, for instance, to abrupt transitions and hysteresis. Here, we consider a simple model for two interacting pathogens on a network and we study it by using the message-passing approach. In this way, we are able to provide detailed predictions for the behavior of the model in the whole phase-diagram for any given network structure. Numerical simulations on synthetic networks (both homogeneous and heterogeneous) confirm the great accuracy of the theoretical results. We finally consider the issue of identifying the nodes where it is better to seed the infection in order to maximize the probability of observing an extensive outbreak. The message-passing approach provides an accurate solution also for this problem.

Competition and dual users in complex contagion processes.

We study the competition of two spreading entities, for example innovations, in complex contagion processes in complex networks. We develop an analytical framework and examine the role of dual users, i.e. agents using both technologies. Searching for the spreading transition of the new innovation and the extinction transition of a preexisting one, we identify different phases depending on network mean degree, prevalence of preexisting technology, and thresholds of the contagion process. Competition with the preexisting technology effectively suppresses the spread of the new innovation, but it also allows for phases of coexistence. The existence of dual users largely modifies the transient dynamics creating new phases that promote the spread of a new innovation and extinction of a preexisting one. It enables the global spread of the new innovation even if the old one has the first-mover advantage.

Publisher Correction: Finding influential nodes for integration in brain networks using optimal percolation theory.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the last sentence of the first paragraph of the Introduction, which incorrectly read 'Correlation of brain activity is typically measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and the correlation structure is often referred to as "fu'. The correct version states 'referred to as "functional connectivity"2-6' in place of 'referred to as "fu'. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Competing contagion processes: Complex contagion triggered by simple contagion.

Empirical evidence reveals that contagion processes often occur with competition of simple and complex contagion, meaning that while some agents follow simple contagion, others follow complex contagion. Simple contagion refers to spreading processes induced by a single exposure to a contagious entity while complex contagion demands multiple exposures for transmission. Inspired by this observation, we propose a model of contagion dynamics with a transmission probability that initiates a process of complex contagion. With this probability nodes subject to simple contagion get adopted and trigger a process of complex contagion. We obtain a phase diagram in the parameter space of the transmission probability and the fraction of nodes subject to complex contagion. Our contagion model exhibits a rich variety of phase transitions such as continuous, discontinuous, and hybrid phase transitions, criticality, tricriticality, and double transitions. In particular, we find a double phase transition showing a continuous transition and a following discontinuous transition in the density of adopted nodes with respect to the transmission probability. We show that the double transition occurs with an intermediate phase in which nodes following simple contagion become adopted but nodes with complex contagion remain susceptible.

Finding influential nodes for integration in brain networks using optimal percolation theory.

Global integration of information in the brain results from complex interactions of segregated brain networks. Identifying the most influential neuronal populations that efficiently bind these networks is a fundamental problem of systems neuroscience. Here, we apply optimal percolation theory and pharmacogenetic interventions in vivo to predict and subsequently target nodes that are essential for global integration of a memory network in rodents. The theory predicts that integration in the memory network is mediated by a set of low-degree nodes located in the nucleus accumbens. This result is confirmed with pharmacogenetic inactivation of the nucleus accumbens, which eliminates the formation of the memory network, while inactivations of other brain areas leave the network intact. Thus, optimal percolation theory predicts essential nodes in brain networks. This could be used to identify targets of interventions to modulate brain function.

Correlated network of networks enhances robustness against catastrophic failures.

Networks in nature rarely function in isolation but instead interact with one another with a form of a network of networks (NoN). A network of networks with interdependency between distinct networks contains instability of abrupt collapse related to the global rule of activation. As a remedy of the collapse instability, here we investigate a model of correlated NoN. We find that the collapse instability can be removed when hubs provide the majority of interconnections and interconnections are convergent between hubs. Thus, our study identifies a stable structure of correlated NoN against catastrophic failures. Our result further suggests a plausible way to enhance network robustness by manipulating connection patterns, along with other methods such as controlling the state of node based on a local rule.

Fragmentation transitions in a coevolving nonlinear voter model.

We study a coevolving nonlinear voter model describing the coupled evolution of the states of the nodes and the network topology. Nonlinearity of the interaction is measured by a parameter q. The network topology changes by rewiring links at a rate p. By analytical and numerical analysis we obtain a phase diagram in p,q parameter space with three different phases: Dynamically active coexistence phase in a single component network, absorbing consensus phase in a single component network, and absorbing phase in a fragmented network. For finite systems the active phase has a lifetime that grows exponentially with system size, at variance with the similar phase for the linear voter model that has a lifetime proportional to system size. We find three transition lines that meet at the point of the fragmentation transition of the linear voter model. A first transition line corresponds to a continuous absorbing transition between the active and fragmented phases. The other two transition lines are discontinuous transitions fundamentally different from the transition of the linear voter model. One is a fragmentation transition between the consensus and fragmented phases, and the other is an absorbing transition in a single component network between the active and consensus phases.

Emergence of robustness in networks of networks.

A model of interdependent networks of networks (NONs) was introduced recently [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 114, 3849 (2017)PNASA60027-842410.1073/pnas.1620808114] in the context of brain activation to identify the neural collective influencers in the brain NON. Here we investigate the emergence of robustness in such a model, and we develop an approach to derive an exact expression for the random percolation transition in Erdös-Rényi NONs of this kind. Analytical calculations are in agreement with numerical simulations, and highlight the robustness of the NON against random node failures, which thus presents a new robust universality class of NONs. The key aspect of this robust NON model is that a node can be activated even if it does not belong to the giant mutually connected component, thus allowing the NON to be built from below the percolation threshold, which is not possible in previous models of interdependent networks. Interestingly, the phase diagram of the model unveils particular patterns of interconnectivity for which the NON is most vulnerable, thereby marking the boundary above which the robustness of the system improves with increasing dependency connections.

Synchronized and mixed outbreaks of coupled recurrent epidemics.

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and most of them are focused on the growing aspect of a single epidemic outbreak. Recently, we extended the study to the case of recurrent epidemics (Sci. Rep. 5, 16010 (2015)) but limited only to a single network. We here report from the real data of coupled regions or cities that the recurrent epidemics in two coupled networks are closely related to each other and can show either synchronized outbreak pattern where outbreaks occur simultaneously in both networks or mixed outbreak pattern where outbreaks occur in one network but do not in another one. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we present a two-layered network model of coupled recurrent epidemics to reproduce the synchronized and mixed outbreak patterns. We show that the synchronized outbreak pattern is preferred to be triggered in two coupled networks with the same average degree while the mixed outbreak pattern is likely to show for the case with different average degrees. Further, we show that the coupling between the two layers tends to suppress the mixed outbreak pattern but enhance the synchronized outbreak pattern. A theoretical analysis based on microscopic Markov-chain approach is presented to explain the numerical results. This finding opens a new window for studying the recurrent epidemics in multi-layered networks.

Model of brain activation predicts the neural collective influence map of the brain.

Efficient complex systems have a modular structure, but modularity does not guarantee robustness, because efficiency also requires an ingenious interplay of the interacting modular components. The human brain is the elemental paradigm of an efficient robust modular system interconnected as a network of networks (NoN). Understanding the emergence of robustness in such modular architectures from the interconnections of its parts is a longstanding challenge that has concerned many scientists. Current models of dependencies in NoN inspired by the power grid express interactions among modules with fragile couplings that amplify even small shocks, thus preventing functionality. Therefore, we introduce a model of NoN to shape the pattern of brain activations to form a modular environment that is robust. The model predicts the map of neural collective influencers (NCIs) in the brain, through the optimization of the influence of the minimal set of essential nodes responsible for broadcasting information to the whole-brain NoN. Our results suggest intervention protocols to control brain activity by targeting influential neural nodes predicted by network theory.

Collective Influence Algorithm to find influencers via optimal percolation in massively large social media.

We elaborate on a linear-time implementation of Collective-Influence (CI) algorithm introduced by Morone, Makse, Nature 524, 65 (2015) to find the minimal set of influencers in networks via optimal percolation. The computational complexity of CI is O(N log N) when removing nodes one-by-one, made possible through an appropriate data structure to process CI. We introduce two Belief-Propagation (BP) variants of CI that consider global optimization via message-passing: CI propagation (CIP) and Collective-Immunization-Belief-Propagation algorithm (CIBP) based on optimal immunization. Both identify a slightly smaller fraction of influencers than CI and, remarkably, reproduce the exact analytical optimal percolation threshold obtained in Random Struct. Alg. 21, 397 (2002) for cubic random regular graphs, leaving little room for improvement for random graphs. However, the small augmented performance comes at the expense of increasing running time to O(N(2)), rendering BP prohibitive for modern-day big-data. For instance, for big-data social networks of 200 million users (e.g., Twitter users sending 500 million tweets/day), CI finds influencers in 2.5 hours on a single CPU, while all BP algorithms (CIP, CIBP and BDP) would take more than 3,000 years to accomplish the same task.

Layer-switching cost and optimality in information spreading on multiplex networks.

We study a model of information spreading on multiplex networks, in which agents interact through multiple interaction channels (layers), say online vs. offline communication layers, subject to layer-switching cost for transmissions across different interaction layers. The model is characterized by the layer-wise path-dependent transmissibility over a contact, that is dynamically determined dependently on both incoming and outgoing transmission layers. We formulate an analytical framework to deal with such path-dependent transmissibility and demonstrate the nontrivial interplay between the multiplexity and spreading dynamics, including optimality. It is shown that the epidemic threshold and prevalence respond to the layer-switching cost non-monotonically and that the optimal conditions can change in abrupt non-analytic ways, depending also on the densities of network layers and the type of seed infections. Our results elucidate the essential role of multiplexity that its explicit consideration should be crucial for realistic modeling and prediction of spreading phenomena on multiplex social networks in an era of ever-diversifying social interaction layers.

Finding Influential Spreaders from Human Activity beyond Network Location.

Most centralities proposed for identifying influential spreaders on social networks to either spread a message or to stop an epidemic require the full topological information of the network on which spreading occurs. In practice, however, collecting all connections between agents in social networks can be hardly achieved. As a result, such metrics could be difficult to apply to real social networks. Consequently, a new approach for identifying influential people without the explicit network information is demanded in order to provide an efficient immunization or spreading strategy, in a practical sense. In this study, we seek a possible way for finding influential spreaders by using the social mechanisms of how social connections are formed in real networks. We find that a reliable immunization scheme can be achieved by asking people how they interact with each other. From these surveys we find that the probabilistic tendency to connect to a hub has the strongest predictive power for influential spreaders among tested social mechanisms. Our observation also suggests that people who connect different communities is more likely to be an influential spreader when a network has a strong modular structure. Our finding implies that not only the effect of network location but also the behavior of individuals is important to design optimal immunization or spreading schemes.

Multiple resource demands and viability in multiplex networks.

Many complex systems demand manifold resources to be supplied from distinct channels to function properly, e.g., water, gas, and electricity for a city. Here, we study a model for viability of such systems demanding more than one type of vital resource be produced and distributed by resource nodes in multiplex networks. We found a rich variety of behaviors such as discontinuity, bistability, and hysteresis in the fraction of viable nodes with respect to the density of networks and the fraction of resource nodes. Our result suggests that viability in multiplex networks is not only exposed to the risk of abrupt collapse but also suffers excessive complication in recovery.

Network robustness of multiplex networks with interlayer degree correlations.

We study the robustness properties of multiplex networks consisting of multiple layers of distinct types of links, focusing on the role of correlations between degrees of a node in different layers. We use generating function formalism to address various notions of the network robustness relevant to multiplex networks, such as the resilience of ordinary and mutual connectivity under random or targeted node removals, as well as the biconnectivity. We found that correlated coupling can affect the structural robustness of multiplex networks in diverse fashion. For example, for maximally correlated duplex networks, all pairs of nodes in the giant component are connected via at least two independent paths and network structure is highly resilient to random failure. In contrast, anticorrelated duplex networks are on one hand robust against targeted attack on high-degree nodes, but on the other hand they can be vulnerable to random failure.