Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data.

BACKGROUND: Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. Identifying location-specific seasonality characteristics is useful for planning interventions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we construct a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data. METHODS: With data from 2669 of the 3247 health facilities in Madagascar, a spatiotemporal regression model was used to estimate seasonal patterns across the island. In the absence of catchment population estimates or the ability to aggregate to the district level, this focused on the monthly proportions of total annual cases by health facility level. The model was informed by dynamic environmental covariates known to directly influence seasonal malaria trends. To identify operationally relevant characteristics such as the transmission start months and associated uncertainty measures, an algorithm was developed and applied to model realisations. A seasonality index was used to incorporate burden information from household prevalence surveys and summarise 'how seasonal' locations are relative to their surroundings. RESULTS: Positive associations were detected between monthly case proportions and temporally lagged covariates of rainfall and temperature suitability. Consistent with the existing literature, model estimates indicate that while most parts of Madagascar experience peaks in malaria transmission near March-April, the eastern coast experiences an earlier peak around February. Transmission was estimated to start in southeast districts before southwest districts, suggesting that indoor residual spraying should be completed in the same order. In regions where the data suggested conflicting seasonal signals or two transmission seasons, estimates of seasonal features had larger deviations and therefore less certainty. CONCLUSIONS: Monthly health facility data can be used to establish seasonal patterns in malaria burden and augment the information provided by household prevalence surveys. The proposed modelling framework allows for evidence-based and cohesive inferences on location-specific seasonal characteristics. As health surveillance systems continue to improve, it is hoped that more of such data will be available to improve our understanding and planning of intervention strategies.

Towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis in southeastern Madagascar: Successes and challenges for interrupting transmission.

INTRODUCTION: A global strategy of mass drug administration (MDA) has greatly reduced the burden of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in endemic countries. In Madagascar, the National Programme to eliminate LF has scaled-up annual MDA of albendazole and diethylcarbamazine across the country in the last decade, but its impact on LF transmission has never been reported. The objective of this study was to evaluate progress towards LF elimination in southeastern Madagascar. METHODS: Three different surveys were carried out in parallel in four health districts of the Vatovavy Fitovinany region in 2016: i) a school-based transmission assessment survey (TAS) in the districts of Manakara Atsimo, Mananjary, and Vohipeno (following a successful pre-TAS in 2013); ii) a district-representative community prevalence survey in Ifanadiana district; and iii) a community prevalence survey in sentinel and spot-check sites of these four districts. LF infection was assessed using the Alere Filariasis Test Strips, which detect circulating filarial antigens (CFA) of adult worms. A brief knowledge, attitudes and practices questionnaire was included in the community surveys. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: None of the 1,825 children sampled in the TAS, and only one in 1,306 children from sentinel and spot-check sites, tested positive to CFA. However, CFA prevalence rate in individuals older than 15 years was still high in two of these three districts, at 3.5 and 9.7% in Mananjary and Vohipeno, respectively. Overall CFA prevalence in sentinel and spot-check sites of these three districts was 2.80% (N = 2,707), but only two individuals had detectable levels of microfilaraemia (0.06%). Prevalence rate estimates for Ifanadiana were substantially higher in the district-representative survey (15.8%; N = 545) than in sentinel and spot-check sites (0.8%; N = 618). Only 51.2% of individuals surveyed in these four districts reported taking MDA in the last year, and 42.2% reported knowing about LF. CONCLUSIONS: Although TAS results suggest that MDA can be stopped in three districts of southeastern Madagascar, the adult population still presents high CFA prevalence levels. This discordance raises important questions about the TAS procedures and the interpretation of their results.