Predicting lung function decline in cystic fibrosis: the impact of initiating ivacaftor therapy.

BACKGROUND: Modulator therapies that seek to correct the underlying defect in cystic fibrosis (CF) have revolutionized the clinical landscape. Given the heterogeneous nature of lung disease progression in the post-modulator era, there is a need to develop prediction models that are robust to modulator uptake. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal cohort study of the CF Foundation Patient Registry (N = 867 patients carrying the G551D mutation who were treated with ivacaftor from 2003 to 2018). The primary outcome was lung function (percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s or FEV1pp). To characterize the association between ivacaftor initiation and lung function, we developed a dynamic prediction model through covariate selection of demographic and clinical characteristics. The ability of the selected model to predict a decline in lung function, clinically known as an FEV1-indicated exacerbation signal (FIES), was evaluated both at the population level and individual level. RESULTS: Based on the final model, the estimated improvement in FEV1pp after ivacaftor initiation was 4.89% predicted (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.90 to 5.89). The rate of decline was reduced with ivacaftor initiation by 0.14% predicted/year (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.27). More frequent outpatient visits prior to study entry and being male corresponded to a higher overall FEV1pp. Pancreatic insufficiency, older age at study entry, a history of more frequent pulmonary exacerbations, lung infections, CF-related diabetes, and use of Medicaid insurance corresponded to lower FEV1pp. The model had excellent predictive accuracy for FIES events with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.83 to 0.84) for the independent testing cohort and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89 to 0.90) for 6-month forecasting with the masked cohort. The root-mean-square errors of the FEV1pp predictions for these cohorts were 7.31% and 6.78% predicted, respectively, with standard deviations of 0.29 and 0.20. The predictive accuracy was robust across different covariate specifications. CONCLUSIONS: The methods and applications of dynamic prediction models developed using data prior to modulator uptake have the potential to inform post-modulator projections of lung function and enhance clinical surveillance in the new era of CF care.

A Decade of Experience With Alemtuzumab Therapy for Severe or Glucocorticoid-Resistant Kidney Transplant Rejection.

Alemtuzumab is used as lymphocyte-depleting therapy for severe or glucocorticoid-resistant kidney transplant rejection. However, the long-term efficacy and toxicity of alemtuzumab therapy are unclear. Therefore, all cases of alemtuzumab anti-rejection therapy between 2012 and 2022 in our institution were investigated. Graft survival, graft function, lymphocyte depletion, serious infections, malignancies, and patient survival were analyzed and compared with a reference cohort of transplanted patients who did not require alemtuzumab anti-rejection therapy. A total of 225 patients treated with alemtuzumab were identified and compared with a reference cohort of 1,668 patients. Over 60% of grafts was salvaged with alemtuzumab therapy, but graft survival was significantly poorer compared to the reference cohort. The median time of profound T- and B lymphocyte depletion was 272 and 344 days, respectively. Serious infection rate after alemtuzumab therapy was 54.1/100 person-years. The risk of death (hazard ratio 1.75, 95%-CI 1.28-2.39) and infection-related death (hazard ratio 2.36, 95%-CI 1.35-4.11) were higher in the alemtuzumab-treated cohort. In conclusion, alemtuzumab is an effective treatment for severe kidney transplant rejection, but causes long-lasting lymphocyte depletion and is associated with frequent infections and worse patient survival outcomes.

Clinical significance of papillary thyroid carcinoma with solid/trabecular growth.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical relevance of solid/trabecular (ST) growth in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is unclear. In this study, we investigated the impact of any amount of ST growth on tumour characteristics and patient outcomes. Furthermore, we evaluated whether ST growth per se affected patients' prognosis in the absence of aggressive features, namely vascular invasion. DESIGN: We analysed 222 PTC patients followed up for more than 5 years in the Department of Endocrinology of the Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa Francisco Gentil from 2002 to 2020. All PTC cases with any percentage of ST growth were included and compared with PTC without ST growth (1:2). Carcinomas with high-grade features were excluded. RESULTS: There were 74 PTC cases with ST growth and 148 without ST growth (median follow-up of 9.3 years). PTC-ST was associated with larger tumour size (p = 0.001) and increased frequency of vascular invasion (p < 0.001) compared with PTC. However, PTC-ST did not exhibit a higher incidence of extrathyroidal extension (p = 1.000) or lymph node metastasis (p = 0.433). Despite the significantly higher prevalence of distant metastasis in PTC-ST compared with PTC (p = 0.043), the significance is lost when the cases with vascular invasion were excluded (p = 0.347). The total radioiodine activity was higher in PTC-ST than in PTC (p = 0.008). Recurrence rates were similar between groups (p = 0.755). The 10-year overall survival and disease-free survival rates for PTC-ST were 94.6% and 98.6%, respectively, similar to the PCT without ST growth (p = 0.097 and p = 0.333, respectively). There was no evidence of an association between the presence of an ST component (p = 0.201) with the risk of death or recurrence, whereas the presence of distant metastasis significantly increased the risk of these events (hazard ratio 10.14, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of ST growth was associated with several aggressive clinicopathological features. However, the risk of cancer recurrence and death for PTC-ST were similar to PTC. In the absence of vascular invasion, the clinical impact of ST growth alone is negligible.