Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004-2025.

BACKGROUND: We examine recent trends in the major cancers occurring in the Golestan province, a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Northern Iran, and provide short-term cancer predictions of the future cancer burden. METHODS: New cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan 2004-2016 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) database, and age-standardized rates by cancer site, year and sex calculated per 100,000 person-years. Using IARC's DepPred package we fitted time-linear age-period models to the available GPCR data to predict the cancer incidence burden in the year 2025. We calculated the contribution of demographic changes versus changes in risk to the overall changes in incidence from 2016 to 2025. RESULTS: The number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in 2025 is predicted to increase by 61.3% from 2678 cases in 2016 to 4319 cases. While a 17.6% reduction in the number of esophageal cancer cases is predicted by 2025, the number of new cases for each of the remaining major cancers is predicted to increase over the next decade, including cancers of the stomach (a 36.1% increase from 2016 to 2025), colorectum (56.2%), lung (67.8%), female breast (93.2%), prostate (101.8%) and leukemia (96.1%). The changes in the population structure and risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5% respectively, to the overall increase in incidence. CONCLUSION: Other than for the major upper gastrointestinal cancer types, the incidence rates of common cancers observed in the province are on the rise, reinforcing the need for continuous surveillance, as well as the design and implementation of effective cancer control programs.

Building cancer registries in a lower resource setting: The 10-year experience of Golestan, Northern Iran.

INTRODUCTION: The Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) was established in Golestan province, Northern Iran, within the Asian belt with predominance of upper-gastrointestinal cancers. We aimed to present the experiences of the registry in a resource-limited setting over the 10 years since its inception (2004-2013). METHODS: The GPCR was established as a research project to enable sustainable funding. A clear plan was developed for use of the GPCR data. New primary cancers were registered based on international standards, indices of data quality were routinely assessed and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) per 100,000 person-years calculated using IARC's CanReg-5 software. RESULTS: Overall, 19807 new cancer cases were registered during the study period, an average of 1981 cases per annum, with overall ASR of 175.0 and 142.4 in males and females, respectively. The GPCR data suggested gastrointestinal and breast cancers as the most common malignancies in Golestan province. We observed increasing incidence rates of breast and colorectal cancers but declining trends of esophageal cancer. Overall, indices of data quality were within acceptable ranges. CONCLUSIONS: The GPCR data have been included in IARC's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, were used in 21 research projects, and published as 30 research papers. The key ingredients for the successful establishment and maintenance of the GPCR included sustainable sources of funding, a clear action plan for the use of data as well as stakeholder cooperation across all areas of the registration. The GPCR may be considered as a model for planning population-based cancer registries in lesser-resourced settings.

Soils selenium level and esophageal cancer: an ecological study in a high risk area for esophageal cancer.

PROJECT: Golestan province, located in northeast of Iran, has been known as a high risk area for esophageal cancer (EC). This study was conducted to assess the relationship between soils selenium (Se) level and development of EC in this region. PROCEDURES: In this ecological study, 135 blocks were identified in Golestan province based on geographical altitude and longitude on the map. One soil sample was collected from the center of each block. Then we investigated Se concentration in soil samples by flame atomic absorption spectrometry. Statistical analysis was performed by the Pearson correlation test and Student t-tests. P-values of less than 0.05 were considered as significant. RESULTS: The mean+/-SD of soils Se level in Golestan province was 3.7+/-1.61 mg/kg. There was a positive correlation between soils Se level and EC rates in this area (P=0.03) (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.19). Soils Se concentration was significantly higher in high (4.13 mg/kg) than in the low (3.39 mg/kg) EC rate areas (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found high soils Se concentration and a significant positive relationship between soils Se level and EC rate in Golestan province of Iran. So, high soils Se level may play a possible role in developing EC in this area, specifically in Turkmensahra (very high EC rates).