Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan.

The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q1) and 6-month cycle (Q2) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q1 and Q2 were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles-mumps-rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan.

Novel Structures and Temporal Changes of Arginine Catabolic Mobile Elements in Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Genotypes ST5-MRSA-II and ST764-MRSA-II in Japan.

Twenty-two of 1,103 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates containing the type II staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec element (SCCmec) (collected in Hokkaido, Japan, from 2008 to 2011) harbored the arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME). Five genetic variations were identified in the ACME-staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec composite islands, 66 to 79 kb in size. The percentage of ACME carriage temporally increased from 0.85% to 4.5% in parallel with the emergence of shorter variants (66 to 72 kb). Shorter variants may have a selective advantage and accelerate the dissemination of ACME in Japanese MRSA.

Time series analysis of reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, China.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by a group of enteroviruses, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) and Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71). In recent decades, Asian countries have experienced frequent and widespread HFMD outbreaks, with deaths predominantly among children. In several Asian countries, epidemics usually peak in the late spring/early summer, with a second small peak in late autumn/early winter. We investigated the possible underlying association between the seasonality of HFMD epidemics and meteorological variables, which could improve our ability to predict HFMD epidemics. METHODS: We used a time series analysis composed of a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. The time series analysis was applied to three kinds of monthly time series data collected in Wuhan, China, where high-quality surveillance data for HFMD have been collected: (i) reported cases of HFMD, (ii) reported cases of EV-A71 and CVA16 detected in HFMD patients, and (iii) meteorological variables. RESULTS: In the power spectral densities for HFMD and EV-A71, the dominant spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated for the 1-year and 6-month cycles reproduced the bimodal cycles that were clearly observed in the HFMD and EV-A71 data. The peak months on the LSF curves for the HFMD data were consistent with those for the EV-A71 data. The risk of infection was relatively high at 10 °C ≤ t < 15 °C (t, temperature [°C]) and 15 °C ≤ t < 20 °C, and peaked at 20 °C ≤ t < 25 °C. CONCLUSION: In this study, the HFMD infections occurring in Wuhan showed two seasonal peaks, in summer (June) and winter (November or December). The results obtained with a time series analysis suggest that the bimodal seasonal peaks in HFMD epidemics are attributable to EV-A71 epidemics. Our results suggest that controlling the spread of EV-A71 infections when the temperature is approximately 20-25 °C should be considered to prevent HFMD infections in Wuhan, China.

Human sapovirus classification based on complete capsid nucleotide sequences.

The genetically diverse sapoviruses (SaVs) are a significant cause of acute human gastroenteritis. Human SaV surveillance is becoming more critical, and a better understanding of the diversity and distribution of the viral genotypes is needed. In this study, we analyzed 106 complete human SaV capsid nucleotide sequences to provide a better understanding of their diversity. Based on those results, we propose a novel standardized classification scheme that meets the requirements of the International Calicivirus Scientific Committee. We believe the classification scheme and strains described here will be of value for the molecular characterization and classification of newly detected SaV genotypes and for comparing data worldwide.

Molecular characteristics of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Hokkaido, northern main island of Japan: identification of sequence types 6 and 59 Panton-Valentine leucocidin-positive community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

Prevalence and molecular characteristics of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) were studied in Hokkaido, the main northern island of Japan. Among the 1,015 S. aureus isolates derived from clinical specimens of outpatients collected in 2009, methicillin resistance gene mecA was detected in 189 isolates (18.6%). The most frequent staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type in MRSA was II (83.1%), followed by IV (6.9%) and V (3.2%). MRSA with type II-SCCmec showed multiple drug resistance and harbored various toxin and virulence factor genes except for Panton-Valentine leucocidin (PVL) gene. These isolates were mostly classified into sequence type 5 (ST5) (or other STs in CC5) and coagulase genotype II and were thus genetically similar to hospital-acquired MRSA, which have been predominating in Japan (New York/Japan clone). PVL gene was detected in three MRSA strains belonging to ST6 (two strains) and ST59 (one strain), having type IVa- and Vt-SCCmec, respectively, and also in two methicillin-susceptible S. aureus ST121 and ST188. The arcA gene within the arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME) was detected in the two PVL-negative ST5 MRSA strains, which had type IIa- or V-SCCmec. The PVL gene-positive ST6 and ST59 CA-MRSA strains were susceptible to more antimicrobials and had less virulence factor genes than the PVL-negative ST5 MRSA, including the ACME-arcA-positive strains. In the present study, ST6 was identified as a lineage of PVL-positive CA-MRSA, the ACME-arcA was first detected in ST5 MRSA with type V-SCCmec, and ST59 Taiwanese CA-MRSA strain was isolated in Hokkaido for the first time. These findings suggest a potential spread of these emerging CA-MRSA clones in Japan.

Time series analysis of incidence data of influenza in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Much effort has been expended on interpreting the mechanism of influenza epidemics, so as to better predict them. In addition to the obvious annual cycle of influenza epidemics, longer-term incidence patterns are present. These so-called interepidemic periods have long been a focus of epidemiology. However, there has been less investigation of the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics. In the present study, we used spectral analysis of influenza morbidity records to indentify the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics in Japan. METHODS: We used time series data of the monthly incidence of influenza in Japan from January 1948 through December 1998. To evaluate the incidence data, we conducted maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral analysis, which is useful in investigating the periodicities of shorter time series, such as that of the incidence data used in the present study. We also conducted a segment time series analysis and obtained a 3-dimensional spectral array. RESULTS: Based on the results of power spectral density (PSD) obtained from MEM spectral analysis, we identified 3 periodic modes as the interepidemic periods of the incidence data. Segment time series analysis revealed that the amount of amplitude of the interepidemic periods increased during the occurrence of influenza pandemics and decreased when vaccine programs were introduced. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the temporal behavior of the interepidemic periods of influenza epidemics is correlated with the magnitude of cross-reactive immune responses.

Predicting the incidence of human campylobacteriosis in Finland with time series analysis.

Human campylobacteriosis is a common bacterial cause of gastrointestinal infections. In this study, we tested whether spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) is useful in predicting the incidence of campylobacteriosis in five provinces in Finland, which has been accumulating good quality incidence data under the surveillance program for water- and food-borne infections. On the basis of the spectral analysis, we identified the periodic modes explaining the underlying variations of the incidence data in the years 2000-2005. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated by using the periodic modes reproduced the underlying variation of the incidence data. We extrapolated the LSF curve to the years 2006 and 2007 and predicted the incidence of campylobacteriosis. Our study suggests that MEM spectral analysis allows us to model temporal variations of the disease incidence with multiple periodic modes much more effectively than using the Fourier model, which has been previously used for modeling seasonally varying incidence data.

Diversity of staphylocoagulase and identification of novel variants of staphylocoagulase gene in Staphylococcus aureus.

Staphylocoagulase (SC) is a major phenotypic determinant of Staphylococcus aureus. Serotype of SC (coagulase type) is used as an epidemiological marker and 10 types (I-X) have been discriminated so far. To clarify genetic diversity of SC within a single and among different serotype(s), we determined approximately 1500 bp-nucleotide sequences of SC gene encoding D1, D2, and central regions (N-terminal half and central regions of SC; SC(NC)) for a total of 33 S. aureus strains comprising two to three strains from individual coagulase types (I-VIII, X) and 10 strains which were not determined as previously known SC serotypes (ND-strains). Amino acid sequence identities of SC(NC) among strains with a single coagulase type of II, III, IV, V, VI and X were extremely high (more than 99%), whereas lower identity (56-87%) was observed among different types. In contrast, within a single coagulase type of I, VII, or VIII, sequence divergence was found (lowest identity; 82%). SC(NC) sequences from the ND-strains were discriminated into two genetic groups with an identity of 71% to each other (tentatively assigned to genotypes [XI] and [XII]), and exhibited less than 86% sequence identities to those of most known coagulase types. All the types [XI] and [XII] strains were methicillin susceptible and belonged to different sequence types from those of coagulase types I-X strains reported so far by multilocus sequence typing. These findings indicated genetic heterogeneity of SC in coagulase types I, VII, and VIII strains, and the presence of two novel SC genotypes related to antigenicity of SC serotypes.

Genetic analysis of group B human rotaviruses detected in Bangladesh in 2000 and 2001.

Group B rotaviruses detected in Bangladesh in 2000 and 2001 were analyzed genetically to clarify relatedness to human group B rotaviruses reported previously in China and India, and to animal group B rotaviruses. VP7 gene sequences of the Bangladeshi group B rotaviruses (Bang373, Bang544, Bang334, and Bang402) were almost identical to each other and also showed high sequence identity to the Indian strain CAL-1 (98%) and Chinese strain adult diarrhea rotavirus (ADRV) (92%), while identities to bovine and murine viruses were considerably low (60-63%). Other genes of Bang373 and Bang544 encoding VP2, VP4, VP6, and NSP1 through NSP5 also showed much higher sequence identities to those of CAL-1 (97.7-99.4%) than to those of ADRV (89.9-93.9%). Characterization of nucleotide substitutions among Bang373, CAL-1, and ADRV suggested that all the gene segments might have evolved neutrally at similar mutation rates, while some of the gene segments (e.g., VP2 gene) were suggested to be more conserved than others. In conclusion, group B rotaviruses detected in Bangladesh represented by Bang373 and the Indian virus CAL-1 were considered as virtually identical viruses which are distinct genetically from ADRV, and it was suggested that Bang373 (CAL-1)-like group B rotavirus (Bengali strains) might be distributed primarily in an area around the Bay of Bengal.