Forecasting of Indian tourism industry using modeling approach.

Currently, India has become one of the largest economies of the world in which tourism and hospitality have significantly contributed; however, the growth rate of tourism industry has been greatly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we have used the modeling approach to analyze and understand the growth pattern of Indian tourism industry. To achieve this, we consider the data of international tourist arrivals before and after the lockdown. The Dickey-Fuller test, AIC and BIC methods are used to obtain the best fitted model and further, the accuracy of obtained model is also analyzed. Data and forecasting indicate that the weather and public holidays significantly affect the tourism industry.

Modeling the impact of hospital beds and vaccination on the dynamics of an infectious disease.

The unprecedented scale and rapidity of dissemination of re-emerging and emerging infectious diseases impose new challenges for regulators and health authorities. To curb the dispersal of such diseases, proper management of healthcare facilities and vaccines are core drivers. In the present work, we assess the unified impact of healthcare facilities and vaccination on the control of an infectious disease by formulating a mathematical model. To formulate the model for any region, we consider four classes of human population; namely, susceptible, infected, hospitalized, and vaccinated. It is assumed that the increment in number of beds in hospitals is continuously made in proportion to the number of infected individuals. To ensure the occurrence of transcritical, saddle-node and Hopf bifurcations, the conditions are derived. The normal form is obtained to show the existence of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. To validate the analytically obtained results, we have conducted some numerical simulations. These results will be useful to public health authorities for planning appropriate health care resources and vaccination programs to diminish prevalence of infectious diseases.

Modeling the role of renewable energy to mitigate the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide along with sustainable development.

In the past few decades, the use of fossil fuels has increased dramatically due to industrialization in developing nations. The elevation of carbon dioxide (CO2) has become a serious concern for the entire world. Therefore, most countries want to reduce the use of fossil fuels by transitioning to renewable energy sources. In this research work, we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model to study the interplay between atmospheric CO2, human population, and energy production through traditional energy sources (coal, oil, and gas) and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and hydro). For the model formulation, we consider that the atmospheric level of CO2 increases due to human activities and energy production through traditional energy sources. Additionally, we consider that the dependency of the human population shifts from traditional to renewable sources of energy as the atmospheric level of CO2 increases. Through the model analysis, we have obtained a condition that implies a change in the equilibrium level of CO2 by increasing the deployment rate of renewable energy sources. This condition demonstrates that the atmospheric level of CO2 can be reversed from its current level through sufficient deployment of renewable energy sources. Moreover, for a certain critical value of the growth rate parameter of renewable energy, three interior equilibria may exist. This situation indicates the presence of hysteresis, which implies that the system may undergo discontinuous jumps between different stable steady states. Furthermore, we discuss an optimal control problem to minimize atmospheric CO2, simultaneously minimizing the cost of the considered strategy.

Allocation of hospital beds on the emergence of new infectious disease: A mathematical model.

This paper is concerned to a mathematical model for the management of hospital beds when a new infection emerges in the population with the existing infections. The study of this joint dynamics presents formidable mathematical challenges due to a limited number of hospital beds. We have derived the invasion reproduction number, which investigates the potential of a newly emerged infectious disease to persist when some infectious diseases are already invaded the host population. We have shown that the proposed system exhibits transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf, and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations under certain conditions. We have also shown that the total number of infected individuals may increase if the fraction of the total number of hospital beds is not properly allotted to the existing and a newly emerged infectious disease. The analytically obtained results are verified with the help of numerical simulations.

Modeling the impact of precautionary measures and sanitation practices broadcasted through media on the dynamics of bacterial diseases.

The media has a significant contribution in spreading awareness by broadcasting various programs about prevalent diseases in the society along with the role of providing information, feeding news and educating a large mass. In this paper, the effect of media programs promoting precautionary measures and sanitation practices to control the bacterial infection in the community is modeled and analyzed considering the number of media programs as a dynamical variable. In the modeling phenomena, human population is partitioned into three classes; susceptible, infected and recovered. The disease is supposed to spread by direct contact of susceptible with infected individuals and indirectly by the ingestion of bacteria present in the environment. The growth in the media programs is considered proportional to the size of infected population and the impact of these programs on the indirect disease transmission rate and bacteria shedding rate by infected individuals is also considered. The feasibility of equilibria and their stability conditions are obtained. Model analysis reveals that broadcasting media programs and increasing its effectiveness shrink the size of infected class and control the spread of disease to a large extent.

Modeling the impact of social media on the adoption of a new product by customers.

Marketers and entrepreneurs need to keep up with the fast-paced changes that are happening in the business environment, or they might face the risk of becoming obsolete in the rapidly changing business environment. It is long gone the days when a conventional business model used to help grow fast and get success. With the emergence of social media, the role of consumer-to-consumer communication about the new products and the firms that produce them has been highly magnified in the marketplace. Social media advertisements are promising tools that affect the adoption of a new product. In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model is introduced for this study. To perceive the impact of social media advertisements on the adoption of a new product, we have considered three dynamic variables; namely, (i) non-adopting population, (ii) adopting population, and (iii) social media advertisements. The stability theory of differential equations has been used to study the model analytically. The computer generated figures are drawn in support of derived analytical results for a particular set of parameter values.•We have proposed and analyzed an nonlinear mathematical model to study the impact of social media advertisements on adoption of new product.•We have considered three dynamical variables; namely, non-adopting population, adopting population, and social media advertisements.•The stability theory of differential equations has been used to study the model analytically.

Potential use of Tinospora cordifolia as a herbal supplement in dairy animals: a review.

Supplementation is an integral part of modern dairy-feeding practices which mainly emphasise on higher production. Different supplements have been utilized by the farmers according to the need and action of supplements. Tinospora cordifolia (TC) is one such herbal supplement which can be utilized to feed dairy animals either alone or in combination with other supplements. TC is a herb found in tropical countries and having number of medicinal properties. Beneficial health effects of TC include immunostimulation, protection against inflammation and bacterial action, hepatoprotection, antioxidant and antineoplastic effects. Available studies on TC supplementation in dairy animals have shown a positive effect on health, body parameters and production performance. Supplementing TC is economically feasible, and it can be adopted by farmers as it helps in improving their net income. However, more research is needed in the field of dairy animals to explore the full potential of this herb. This review is written with the objective of highlighting the possibilities of using TC in dairy animal rations and promoting research in the concerned field to fill the gaps in knowledge. Thorough knowledge about TC and its effect in dairy animals can add a new concept to the supplementation process and developments of dairy rations.

Modeling the effect of time delay in the increment of number of hospital beds to control an infectious disease.

One of the key factors to control the spread of any infectious disease is the health care facilities, especially the number of hospital beds. To assess the impact of number of hospital beds and control of an emerged infectious disease, we have formulated a mathematical model by considering population (susceptible, infected, hospitalized) and newly created hospital beds as dynamic variables. In formulating the model, we have assumed that the number of hospital beds increases proportionally to the number of infected individuals. It is shown that on a slight change in parameter values, the model enters to different kinds of bifurcations, e.g., saddle-node, transcritical (backward and forward), and Hopf bifurcation. Also, the explicit conditions for these bifurcations are obtained. We have also shown the occurrence of Bogdanov-Takens (BT) bifurcation using the Normal form. To set up a new hospital bed takes time, and so we have also analyzed our proposed model by incorporating time delay in the increment of newly created hospital beds. It is observed that the incorporation of time delay destabilizes the system, and multiple stability switches arise through Hopf-bifurcation. To validate the results of the analytical analysis, we have carried out some numerical simulations.

Modeling the importance of temporary hospital beds on the dynamics of emerged infectious disease.

To explore the impact of available and temporarily arranged hospital beds on the prevention and control of an infectious disease, an epidemic model is proposed and investigated. The stability analysis of the associated equilibria is carried out, and a threshold quantity basic reproduction number ( R0) that governs the disease dynamics is derived and observed whether it depends both on available and temporarily arranged hospital beds. We have used the center manifold theory to derive the normal form and have shown that the proposed model undergoes different types of bifurcations including transcritical (backward and forward), Bogdanov-Takens, and Hopf-bifurcation. Bautin bifurcation is obtained at which the first Lyapunov coefficient vanishes. We have taken advantage of Sotomayor's theorem to establish the saddle-node bifurcation. Numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical findings.

Effect of bypass fatty acid and Tinospora cordifolia supplementation on production performance and milk fatty acid profiling in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis).

Buffaloes contribute about 49% of total milk production and are considered as major milk-producing animals in India. During the early stage of lactation, mostly high producing animals suffer from negative energy balance (NEB) due to imbalance between the needs and availability of energy, and this NEB has a negative impact on production and health of buffaloes. Taking this into consideration, a study was conducted at National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal on 20 freshly calved healthy Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis). Buffaloes were grouped depending on their previous milk yield, body weight, and parity as T0 (control), T1 (fatty acids), T2 (Tinospora), and T3 (mix) groups having five animals each. Supplementation of 150 g of bypass fatty acids in T1 group, 150 g of Tinospora powder in T2 group, and combination of 150 of bypass fatty acid and 150 g of Tinospora powder in T3 group over and above the standard feeding schedule was done for a duration of 90 days whereas standard feeding schedule was followed in T0 group. A significant (P < 0.05) increase in average daily milk yield was observed in T1 (10.06 ± 0.56 kg/d/h), T2 (10.30 ± 0.53 kg/d/h), and T3 (10.11 ± 0.48 kg/d/h) in comparison to control group (8.05 ± 0.38 kg/d/h). Significantly (P < 0.05) higher milk fat percent and total solids were also recorded in treatment groups over the control group. Other milk constituents (SNF, protein, lactose, ash) and milk properties (pH, conductivity, freezing point, density) remained unaffected by the supplementations. The somatic cell count values were significantly (P < 0.05) decreased in T2 and T3 with the advancement in the lactation in comparison to T0 and T1. Supplementation also leads to significantly (P < 0.05) higher MUFA and PUFA contents in milk of treatment group buffaloes in comparison to control group. The study outcomes state that combination of bypass fatty acids and Tinospora cordifolia supplementation improves milk production and its composition in lactating Murrah buffaloes.

Interplay between spin proximity effect and charge-dependent exciton dynamics in MoSe2/CrBr3 van der Waals heterostructures.

Semiconducting ferromagnet-nonmagnet interfaces in van der Waals heterostructures present a unique opportunity to investigate magnetic proximity interactions dependent upon a multitude of phenomena including valley and layer pseudospins, moiré periodicity, or exceptionally strong Coulomb binding. Here, we report a charge-state dependency of the magnetic proximity effects between MoSe2 and CrBr3 in photoluminescence, whereby the valley polarization of the MoSe2 trion state conforms closely to the local CrBr3 magnetization, while the neutral exciton state remains insensitive to the ferromagnet. We attribute this to spin-dependent interlayer charge transfer occurring on timescales between the exciton and trion radiative lifetimes. Going further, we uncover by both the magneto-optical Kerr effect and photoluminescence a domain-like spatial topography of contrasting valley polarization, which we infer to be labyrinthine or otherwise highly intricate, with features smaller than 400 nm corresponding to our optical resolution. Our findings offer a unique insight into the interplay between short-lived valley excitons and spin-dependent interlayer tunneling, while also highlighting MoSe2 as a promising candidate to optically interface with exotic spin textures in van der Waals structures.

COVID-19 in people living with diabetes: An international consensus.

The COVID-19 pandemic has added an enormous toll to the existing challenge of diabetes care world-wide. A large proportion of patients with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization and/or succumbing to the disease have had diabetes and other chronic conditions as underlying risk factors. In particular, individuals belonging to racial/ethnic minorities in the U.S. and other countries have been significantly and disproportionately impacted. Multiple and complex socioeconomic factors have long played a role in increasing the risk for diabetes and now for COVID-19. Since the pandemic began, the global healthcare community has accumulated invaluable clinical experience on providing diabetes care in the setting of COVID-19. In addition, understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms that link these two diseases is being developed. The current clinical management of diabetes is a work in progress, requiring a shift in patient-provider interaction beyond the walls of clinics and hospitals: the use of tele-medicine when feasible, innovative patient education programs, strategies to ensure medication and glucose testing availability and affordability, as well as numerous ideas on how to improve meal plans and physical activity. Notably, this worldwide experience offers us the possibility to not only prepare better for future disasters but also transform diabetes care beyond the COVID-19 era.

An optimal control problem for carrier dependent diseases.

In developing countries, several diseases spread in human population due to the abundance of houseflies (a kind of carrier). The main reason behind the spread of these diseases is the lack of awareness among peoples regarding the sanitation practices and economic constraints. To understand the dynamics of the spread and control of these diseases, in this paper, we propose a mathematical model by considering logistic growth of houseflies. In the model formulation, it is assumed that houseflies transport the bacteria responsible for the disease transmission from the environment to the edibles of human population. To reduce the density of houseflies and number of infected individuals, an optimization problem is also formulated and analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to support analytically obtained results.

Body fat, metabolic syndrome and hyperglycemia in South Asians.

The prevalence of overweight and obesity is escalating in South Asian countries. South Asians display higher total and abdominal obesity at a lower BMI when compared to Whites. Consequently, metabolic dysfunction leading to metabolic syndrome (MetS) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) will account for a majority of the health burden of these countries. In this review, we discuss those factors that contribute to MetS and T2DM in South Asians when compared to whites, focusing on adiposity. Abdominal obesity is the single-most important risk factor for MetS and its predisposition to T2DM. Excessive ectopic fat deposition in the liver (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) has been linked to insulin resistance in Asian Indians, while the effects of ectopic fat accumulation in pancreas and skeletal muscle need more investigation. South Asians also have lower skeletal muscle mass than Whites, and this may contribute to their higher risk T2DM. Lifestyle factors contributing to MetS and T2DM in South Asians include inadequate physical activity and high intakes of refined carbohydrates and saturated fats. These are reflective of the recent but rapid economic transition and urbanization of the South Asian region. There is need to further the research into genetic determinants of dysmetabolism as well as gene x environment interactions. Collectively, MetS and T2DM have multi-factorial antecedents in South Asians and efforts to combat it through low-cost and socio-culturally appropriate lifestyle interventions need to be supported.

Unique Raman Spectroscopic Fingerprints of B-Cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: Implications for Diagnosis, Prognosis and New Therapies.

OBJECTIVE: Raman spectroscopy is a non-invasive laser-based technique that identifies molecular chemical composition of tissues and cells. The objective of the work was to demonstrate that unique Raman spectroscopic fingerprints of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma cells could be distinguished from normal B-cells. METHODS: Normal B-cells and B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma cells were mounted on aluminum slides and analyzed by Raman spectroscopy using Asymmetric Least Squares and Principal Component Analysis. RESULTS: Clustering by Principal Component Analysis differentiated normal B-cells from B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma cells as well as between the different B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma cell types. CONCLUSIONS: Raman spectroscopy technology provided a different paradigm in analyzing tumor cells which could be used for diagnosis as well as contribute new information on unique characteristics of cancer cells to understand pathogenesis and potential novel treatments.

Modeling the Effect of Prey Refuge on a Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey System with the Allee Effect.

The extinction of species is a major threat to the biodiversity. The species exhibiting a strong Allee effect are vulnerable to extinction due to predation. The refuge used by species having a strong Allee effect may affect their predation and hence extinction risk. A mathematical study of such behavioral phenomenon may aid in management of many endangered species. However, a little attention has been paid in this direction. In this paper, we have studied the impact of a constant prey refuge on the dynamics of a ratio-dependent predator-prey system with strong Allee effect in prey growth. The stability analysis of the model has been carried out, and a comprehensive bifurcation analysis is presented. It is found that if prey refuge is less than the Allee threshold, the incorporation of prey refuge increases the threshold values of the predation rate and conversion efficiency at which unconditional extinction occurs. Moreover, if the prey refuge is greater than the Allee threshold, situation of unconditional extinction may not occur. It is found that at a critical value of prey refuge, which is greater than the Allee threshold but less than the carrying capacity of prey population, system undergoes cusp bifurcation and the rich spectrum of dynamics exhibited by the system disappears if the prey refuge is increased further.

Management of obesity in adult Asian Indians.

The prevalence of obesity in India is increasing and ranges from 8% to 38% in rural and 13% to 50% in urban areas. Obesity is a risk factor for development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, dyslipidemia, coronary heart disease and many cancers. In Asian Indians excess abdominal and hepatic fat is associated with increased risk for T2DM and cardiovascular disease. There is higher risk for development of obesity related non-communicable diseases at lower body mass index levels, compared to white Caucasians. Despite being a commonly encountered medical problem, obesity poses challenges in treatment. Many Indian physicians find themselves to be lacking time and expertise to prepare an appropriate obesity management plan and patients experience continuous weight gain over time despite being under regular medical supervision. In this article, we outline approaches to obesity management in 'real life mode' and in context to Asian Indian patients.

Abdominal obesity and type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians: dietary strategies including edible oils, cooking practices and sugar intake.

Obesity and type 2 diabetes are increasing in rural and urban regions of South Asia including India. Pattern of fat deposition in abdomen, ectopic fat deposition (liver, pancreas) and also low lean mass are contributory to early-onset insulin resistance, dysmetabolic state and diabetes in Asian Indians. These metabolic perturbations are further exacerbated by changing lifestyle, diet urbanization, and mechanization. Important dietary imbalances include increasing use of oils containing high amount of trans fatty acids and saturated fats (partially hydrogenated vegetable oil, palmolein oil) use of deep frying method and reheating of oils for cooking, high intake of saturated fats, sugar and refined carbohydrates, low intake of protein, fiber and increasing intake of processed foods. Although dietary intervention trials are few; the data show that improving quality of carbohydrates (more complex carbohydrates), improving fat quality (more monounsaturated fatty acids and omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) and increasing protein intake could improve blood glucose, serum insulin, lipids, inflammatory markers and hepatic fat, but more studies are needed. Finally, regulatory framework must be tightened to impose taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, oils such as palmolein, and dietary fats and limit trans fats.