The missing fraction problem as an episodes of selection problem.

In evolutionary quantitative genetics, the missing fraction problem refers to a specific kind of bias in parameters estimated later in life that occurs when nonrandom subsets of phenotypes are missing from the population due to prior viability selection on correlated traits. The missing fraction problem thus arises when the following hold: (a) viability selection and (b) correlation between later-life traits and traits important for early-life survival. Although it is plausible that these conditions are widespread in wild populations, this problem has received little empirical attention. This may be natural: the problem could appear intractable, given that it is impossible to measure phenotypes of individuals that have previously died. However, it is not impossible to correctly measure lifetime selection, or correctly predict evolutionary trajectories, of later-life traits in the presence of the missing fraction. Two basic strategies are available. First, given phenotypic data on selected early life traits, well established but underused episodes of selection theory can yield correct values of evolutionary parameters throughout life. Second, when traits subjected to early-life viability selection are not known and/or measured, it is possible to use the genetic association of later-life traits with early-life viability to correctly infer important information about the consequences of prior viability selection for later-life traits. By carefully reviewing the basic nature of the missing fraction problem, and describing the tractable solutions to the problem, we hope that future studies will be able to be better designed to cope with the (likely pervasive) consequences of early-life viability selection.

A synthesis of senescence predictions for indeterminate growth, and support from multiple tests in wild lake trout.

Senescence-the deterioration of functionality with age-varies widely across taxa in pattern and rate. Insights into why and how this variation occurs are hindered by the predominance of laboratory-focused research on short-lived model species with determinate growth. We synthesize evolutionary theories of senescence, highlight key information gaps and clarify predictions for species with low mortality and variable degrees of indeterminate growth. Lake trout are an ideal species to evaluate predictions in the wild. We monitored individual males from two populations (1976-2017) longitudinally for changes in adult mortality (actuarial senescence) and body condition (proxy for energy balance). A cross-sectional approach (2017) compared young (ages 4-10 years) and old (18-37 years) adults for (i) phenotypic performance in body condition, and semen quality-which is related to fertility under sperm competition (reproductive senescence)-and (ii) relative telomere length (potential proxy for cellular senescence). Adult growth in these particular populations is constrained by a simplified foodweb, and our data support predictions of negligible senescence when maximum size is only slightly larger than maturation size. Negative senescence (aka reverse senescence) may occur in other lake trout populations where diet shifts allow maximum sizes to greatly exceed maturation size.

Re-identification of individuals from images using spot constellations: a case study in Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus).

The ability to re-identify individuals is fundamental to the individual-based studies that are required to estimate many important ecological and evolutionary parameters in wild populations. Traditional methods of marking individuals and tracking them through time can be invasive and imperfect, which can affect these estimates and create uncertainties for population management. Here we present a photographic re-identification method that uses spot constellations in images to match specimens through time. Photographs of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) were used as a case study. Classical computer vision techniques were compared with new deep-learning techniques for masks and spot extraction. We found that a U-Net approach trained on a small set of human-annotated photographs performed substantially better than a baseline feature engineering approach. For matching the spot constellations, two algorithms were adapted, and, depending on whether a fully or semi-automated set-up is preferred, we show how either one or a combination of these algorithms can be implemented. Within our case study, our pipeline both successfully identified unmarked individuals from photographs alone and re-identified individuals that had lost tags, resulting in an approximately 4% increase in our estimate of survival rate. Overall, our multi-step pipeline involves little human supervision and could be applied to many organisms.

Feral populations of Brassica oleracea along Atlantic coasts in western Europe.

There has been growing emphasis on the role that crop wild relatives might play in supporting highly selected agriculturally valuable species in the face of climate change. In species that were domesticated many thousands of years ago, distinguishing wild populations from escaped feral forms can be challenging, but reintroducing variation from either source could supplement current cultivated forms. For economically important cabbages (Brassicaceae: Brassica oleracea), "wild" populations occur throughout Europe but little is known about their genetic variation or potential as resources for breeding more resilient crop varieties. The main aim of this study was to characterize the population structure of geographically isolated wild cabbage populations along the coasts of the UK and Spain, including the Atlantic range edges. Double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing was used to sample individual cabbage genomes, assess the similarity of plants from 20 populations, and explore environment-genotype associations across varying climatic conditions. Interestingly, there were no indications of isolation by distance; several geographically close populations were genetically more distinct from each other than to distant populations. Furthermore, several distant populations shared genetic ancestry, which could indicate that they were established by escapees of similar source cultivars. However, there were signals of local adaptation to different environments, including a possible relationship between genetic diversity and soil pH. Overall, these results highlight wild cabbages in the Atlantic region as an important genetic resource worthy of further research into their relationship with existing crop varieties.

Are molecular markers useful predictors of adaptive potential?

Estimates of molecular genetic variation are often used as a cheap and simple surrogate for a population's adaptive potential, yet empirical evidence suggests they are unlikely to be a valid proxy. However, this evidence is based on molecular genetic variation poorly predicting estimates of adaptive potential rather than how well it predicts true values. As a consequence, the relationship has been systematically underestimated and the precision with which it could be measured severely overstated. By collating a large database, and using suitable statistical methods, we obtain a 95% upper bound of 0.26 for the proportion of variance in quantitative genetic variation explained by molecular diversity. The relationship is probably too weak to be useful, but this conclusion must be taken as provisional: less noisy estimates of quantitative genetic variation are required. In contrast, and perhaps surprisingly, current sampling strategies appear sufficient for characterising a population's molecular genetic variation at comparable markers.

Intraclutch differences in egg characteristics mitigate the consequences of age-related hierarchies in a wild passerine.

The relative age of an individual's siblings is a major cause of fitness variation in many species. In Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we show that age hierarchies are predominantly caused by incubation preclutch completion, such that last laid eggs hatch later than early laid eggs. However, after statistically controlling for incubation behavior late laid eggs are shown to hatch more quickly than early laid eggs reducing the amount of asynchrony. By experimentally switching early and late laid eggs between nests on the day they were laid, we controlled for the effect of differential incubation and found that the faster hatching times of late laid eggs remains. Chicks that hatched earlier were heavier and had higher probability of fledgling, and chicks that hatched from experimental eggs had patterns of growth and survival consistent with this. Egg mass explained a small part of this variation, but the remainder must be due to egg composition. These results are consistent with the idea that intrinsic differences between eggs across the laying sequence serve to mitigate the effects of age-related hierarchies. We also show that between-clutch variation in prenatal developmental rate exists and that it is mainly environmental in origin rather than genetic.

Disentangling genetic and prenatal sources of familial resemblance across ontogeny in a wild passerine.

Cross-fostering experiments are widely used by quantitative geneticists to study genetics and by behavioral ecologists to study the effects of prenatal investment. Generally, the effects of genes and prenatal investment are confounded and the interpretation given to such experiments is largely dependent on the interests of the researcher. Using a large-scale well-controlled experiment on a wild population of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), we are able to partition variation in body mass across ontogeny into the effects of genes and the effects of between-clutch variation in egg characteristics. We show that although egg effects are important early in ontogeny they quickly dissipate, suggesting that the genetic interpretation of cross-fostering experiments may be preferable for many types of trait. However, the heritability of body mass is smaller than has previously been reported. Our results suggest that this is due to a combination of controlling postnatal environmental effects more carefully and accounting for viability selection operating early in ontogeny.