Decision analysis for designing marine protected areas for multiple species with uncertain fishery status.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are growing in popularity as a conservation tool, and there are increasing calls for additional MPAs. Meta-analyses indicate that most MPAs successfully meet the minimal goal of increasing biomass inside the MPA, while some do not, leaving open the important question of what makes MPAs successful. An often-overlooked aspect of this problem is that the success of fishery management outside MPA boundaries (i.e., whether a population is overfished) affects how well MPAs meet both conservation goals (e.g., increased biomass) and economic goals (e.g., minimal negative effects on fishery yield). Using a simple example of a system with homogeneous habitat and periodically spaced MPAs, we show that, as area in MPAs increases, (1) conservation value (biomass) may initially be zero, implying no benefit, then at some point increases monotonically; and (2) fishery yield may be zero, then increases monotonically to a maximum beyond which further increase in MPA area causes yield to decline. Importantly, the points at which these changes in slope occur vary among species and depend on management outside MPAs. Decision makers considering the effects of a potential system of MPAs on multiple species are confronted by a number of such cost-benefit curves, and it is usually impossible to maximize benefits and minimize costs for all species. Moreover, the precise shape of each curve is unknown due to uncertainty regarding the fishery status of each species. Here we describe a decision-analytic approach that incorporates existing information on fishery stock status to present decision makers with the range of likely outcomes of MPA implementation. To summarize results from many species whose overfishing status is uncertain, our decision-analysis approach involves weighted averages over both overfishing uncertainty and species. In an example from an MPA decision process in California, USA, an optimistic projection of future fishery management success led to recommendation of fewer and smaller MPAs than that derived from a more pessimistic projection of future management success. This example illustrates how information on fishery status can be used to project potential outcomes of MPA implementation within a decision analysis framework and highlights the need for better population information.

Marine reserve networks for species that move within a home range.

Marine reserves are expected to benefit a wide range of species, but most models used to evaluate their effects assume that adults are sedentary, thereby potentially overestimating population persistence. Many nearshore marine organisms move within a home range as adults, and there is a need to understand the effects of this type of movement on reserve performance. We incorporated movement within a home range into a spatially explicit marine reserve model in order to assess the combined effects of adult and larval movement on persistence and yield in a general, strategic framework. We describe how the capacity of a population to persist decreased with increasing home range size in a manner that depended on whether the sedentary case was maintained by self persistence or network persistence. Self persistence declined gradually with increasing home range and larval dispersal distance, while network persistence decreased sharply to 0 above a threshold home range and was less dependent on larval dispersal distance. The maximum home range size protected by a reserve network increased with the fraction of coastline in reserves and decreasing exploitation rates outside reserves. Spillover due to movement within a home range contributed to yield moderately under certain conditions, although yield contributions were generally not as large as those from spillover due to larval dispersal. Our results indicate that, for species exhibiting home range behavior, persistence in a network of marine reserves may be more predictable than previously anticipated from models based solely on larval dispersal, in part due to better knowledge of home range sizes. Including movement within a home range can change persistence results significantly from those assuming that adults are sedentary; hence it is an important consideration in reserve design.