ABSTRACT
A well documented epidemic of human intestinal schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma mansoni occurred at Maun in the seasonal part of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, building from very few cases in the 1950s and early 1960s to a peak prevalence of >80% in the 1980s. A retrospective analysis was performed on all available records of the prevalence of S. mansoni in the Maun area and the corresponding flow records of the Thamalakane River. These revealed a statistically significant correlation between prevalence and flow, but only when a lag period was introduced. The correlation was greatest with a lag period of 5-6 years between the rise and fall of discharge and the rise and fall of transmission. Since the hydrological events in the delta follow a cyclical pattern, another epidemic around 2020 appears likely.
