Over 80% of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy supports emissions-intensive animal products.

The European Union's Common Agricultural Policy strongly influences the European Union's food system via agricultural subsidies. Linking global physical input-output datasets with public subsidy data reveals that current allocation favours animal-based foods, which uses 82% of the European Union's agricultural subsidies (38% directly and 44% for animal feed). Subsidy intensity (€ kg-1) for animal-based foods approximately doubles after feed inclusion. The same animal-based foods are associated with 84% of embodied greenhouse gas emissions of EU food production while supplying 35% of EU calories and 65% of proteins.

Assessing nutrient fate from terrestrial to freshwater systems using a semi-distributed model for the Fuxian Lake Basin, China.

The growing and increasingly intensified agricultural sector exerts major pressures on the environment. Specifically, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) runoff can induce eutrophication in freshwater ecosystems. To formulate environmental strategies for controlling eutrophication, decision-makers commonly consider the importance of pollutant contributors before developing sector-specific environmental policies. These types of science-based decisions benefit from nutrient models that quantify nutrient transport and fate. However, due to a lack of fertilizer application data, distributed models are generally not suitable for most rural regions with extensive agriculture, while lumped models cannot properly characterize the spatial variation of nutrient fate in these regions. To assess the nutrient contributions from different emission sources to freshwater, we developed a localized semi-distributed model to simulate total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in 52 inflow rivers of Fuxian Lake Basin in China. The results show that diffuse sources contributed 82 % TN and 92 % TP loading to the inflow rivers. The highest eutrophication potentials (i.e., loading per area) is from the built environment, which is more than 10 times that of forests, but the contribution of the built environment to total diffuse loading is only the second-highest as it occupies 8.7 % of the surface area. Farmland is the main contributor, generating 49 % of diffuse TN and 57 % TP, respectively. Our results show that promoting a 10 % increase in nutrient use efficiency would reduce 5 % of N and 30 % of P diffuse loadings to the rivers. Through examining the impact of nutrient use efficiency, we emphasize the potential trade-offs between food productivity and environmental effects. This analysis workflow can be applied to other agricultural regions.

Global regionalized characterization factors for phosphorus and nitrogen impacts on freshwater fish biodiversity.

Inefficient global nutrient (i.e., phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N)) management leads to an increase in nutrient delivery to freshwater and coastal ecosystems and induces eutrophication in these aquatic environments. This process threatens the various species inhabiting these ecosystems. In this study, we developed regionalized characterization factors (CFs) for freshwater eutrophication at 0.5 × 0.5-degree resolution, considering different fates for direct emissions to freshwater, diffuse emissions, and increased erosion due to agricultural land use. The CFs were provided for global and regional species loss of freshwater fish. CFs for global species loss were quantified by integrating global extinction probabilities. Results showed that the CFs for P and N impacts on freshwater fish are higher in densely populated regions that encompass either large lakes or the headwaters of large rivers. Focusing on nutrient-limited areas increases country-level CFs in 51.9 % of the countries for P and 49.5 % of the countries for N compared to not considering nutrient limitation. This study highlights the relevance of considering freshwater eutrophication impacts via both P and N emissions and identifying the limiting nutrient when performing life cycle impact assessments.

Inland Waters Increasingly Produce and Emit Nitrous Oxide.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived greenhouse gas and currently contributes ∼10% to global greenhouse warming. Studies have suggested that inland waters are a large and growing global N2O source, but whether, how, where, when, and why inland-water N2O emissions changed in the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we quantify global N2O formation, transport, and emission along the aquatic continuum and their changes using a spatially explicit, mechanistic, coupled biogeochemistry-hydrology model. The global inland-water N2O emission increased from 0.4 to 1.3 Tg N yr-1 during 1900-2010 due to (1) growing N2O inputs mainly from groundwater and (2) increased inland-water N2O production, largely in reservoirs. Inland waters currently contribute 7 (5-10)% to global total N2O emissions. The highest inland-water N2O emissions are typically in and downstream of reservoirs and areas with high population density and intensive agricultural activities in eastern and southern Asia, southeastern North America, and Europe. The expected continuing excessive use of nutrients, dam construction, and development of suboxic conditions in aging reservoirs imply persisting high inland-water N2O emissions.

Effects of Nitrogen Emissions on Fish Species Richness across the World's Freshwater Ecoregions.

The increasing application of synthetic fertilizer has tripled nitrogen (N) inputs over the 20th century. N enrichment decreases water quality and threatens aquatic species such as fish through eutrophication and toxicity. However, the impacts of N on freshwater ecosystems are typically neglected in life cycle assessment (LCA). Due to the variety of environmental conditions and species compositions, the response of species to N emissions differs among ecoregions, requiring a regionalized effect assessment. Our study tackled this issue by establishing regionalized species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) of freshwater fish against N concentrations for 367 ecoregions and 48 combinations of realms and major habitat types globally. Subsequently, effect factors (EFs) were derived for LCA to assess the effects of N on fish species richness at a 0.5 degree × 0.5 degree resolution. Results show good SSD fits for all of the ecoregions that contain sufficient data and similar patterns for average and marginal EFs. The SSDs highlight strong effects on species richness due to high N concentrations in the tropical zone and the vulnerability of cold regions. Our study revealed the regional differences in sensitivities of freshwater ecosystems against N content in great spatial detail and can be used to assess more precisely and comprehensively nutrient-induced impacts in LCA.

Offshore Wind Energy and Marine Biodiversity in the North Sea: Life Cycle Impact Assessment for Benthic Communities.

Large-scale offshore wind energy developments represent a major player in the energy transition but are likely to have (negative or positive) impacts on marine biodiversity. Wind turbine foundations and sour protection often replace soft sediment with hard substrates, creating artificial reefs for sessile dwellers. Offshore wind farm (OWF) furthermore leads to a decrease in (and even a cessation of) bottom trawling, as this activity is prohibited in many OWFs. The long-term cumulative impacts of these changes on marine biodiversity remain largely unknown. This study integrates such impacts into characterization factors for life cycle assessment based on the North Sea and illustrates its application. Our results suggest that there are no net adverse impacts during OWF operation on benthic communities inhabiting the original sand bottom within OWFs. Artificial reefs could lead to a doubling of species richness and a two-order-of-magnitude increase of species abundance. Seabed occupation will also incur in minor biodiversity losses in the soft sediment. Our results were not conclusive concerning the trawling avoidance benefits. The developed characterization factors quantifying biodiversity-related impacts from OWF operation provide a stepping stone toward a better representation of biodiversity in life cycle assessment.

Assessing the European Electric-Mobility Transition: Emissions from Electric Vehicle Manufacturing and Use in Relation to the EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets.

The European Union (EU) has set a 37.5% GHG reduction target in 2030 for the mobility sector, relative to 1990 levels. This requires increasing the share of zero-emission passenger vehicles, mainly in the form of electric vehicles (EVs). This study calculates future GHG emissions related to passenger vehicle manufacturing and use based on stated policy goals of EU Member States for EV promotion. Under these policies, by 2040 the stock of EVs would be about 73 times larger than those of 2020, contributing to a cumulative in-use emission reduction of 2.0 gigatons CO2-eq. Nevertheless, this stated EV adoption will not be sufficiently fast to reach the EU's GHG reduction targets, and some of the GHG environmental burdens may be shifted to the EV battery manufacturing countries. To achieve the 2030 reduction targets, the EU as a whole needs to accelerate the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles and transit to e-mobility at the pace of the most ambitious Member States, such that EVs can comprise at least 55% of the EU passenger vehicle fleet in 2030. An accelerated decarbonization of the electricity system will become the most critical prerequisite for minimizing GHG emissions from both EV manufacturing and in-use stages.

Environmental Impacts of Global Offshore Wind Energy Development until 2040.

Continuous reduction in the levelized cost of energy is driving the rapid development of offshore wind energy (OWE). It is thus important to evaluate, from an environmental perspective, the implications of expanding OWE capacity on a global scale. Nevertheless, this assessment must take into account various scenarios for the growth of different OWE technologies in the near future. To evaluate the environmental impacts of future OWE development, this paper conducts a prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) including parameterized supply chains with high technology resolution. Results show that OWE-related environmental impacts, including climate change, marine ecotoxicity, marine eutrophication, and metal depletion, are reduced by ∼20% per MWh from 2020 to 2040 due to various developments including size expansion, lifetime extension, and technology innovation. At the global scale, 2.6-3.6 Gt CO2 equiv of greenhouse gas emissions are emitted cumulatively due to OWE deployment from 2020 to 2040. The manufacturing of primary raw materials, such as steel and fibers, is the dominant contributor to impacts. Overall, 6-9% of the cumulative OWE-related environmental impacts could be reduced by end-of-life (EoL) recycling and the substitution of raw materials.

Exploring Spatially Explicit Changes in Carbon Budgets of Global River Basins during the 20th Century.

Rivers play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle. However, it remains unknown how long-term river C fluxes change because of climate, land-use, and other environmental changes. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal variations in global freshwater C cycling in the 20th century using the mechanistic IMAGE-Dynamic Global Nutrient Model extended with the Dynamic In-Stream Chemistry Carbon module (DISC-CARBON) that couples river basin hydrology, environmental conditions, and C delivery with C flows from headwaters to mouths. The results show heterogeneous spatial distribution of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations in global inland waters with the lowest concentrations in the tropics and highest concentrations in the Arctic and semiarid and arid regions. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations are less than 10 mg C/L in most global inland waters and are generally high in high-latitude basins. Increasing global C inputs, burial, and CO2 emissions reported in the literature are confirmed by DISC-CARBON. Global river C export to oceans has been stable around 0.9 Pg yr-1. The long-term changes and spatial patterns of concentrations and fluxes of different C forms in the global river network unfold the combined influence of the lithology, climate, and hydrology of river basins, terrestrial and biological C sources, in-stream C transformations, and human interferences such as damming.

Ammonia-oxidizing archaea have similar power requirements in diverse marine oxic sediments.

Energy/power availability is regarded as one of the ultimate controlling factors of microbial abundance in the deep biosphere, where fewer cells are found in habitats of lower energy availability. A critical assumption driving the proportional relationship between total cell abundance and power availability is that the cell-specific power requirement keeps constant or varies over smaller ranges than other variables, which has yet to be validated. Here we present a quantitative framework to determine the cell-specific power requirement of the omnipresent ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) in eight sediment cores with 3-4 orders of magnitude variations of organic matter flux and oxygen penetration depth. Our results show that despite the six orders of magnitude variations in the rates and power supply of nitrification and AOA abundances across these eight cores, the cell-specific power requirement of AOA from different cores and depths overlaps within the narrow range of 10-19-10-17 W cell-1, where the lower end may represent the basal power requirement of microorganisms persisting in subseafloor sediments. In individual cores, AOA also exhibit similar cell-specific power requirements, regardless of the AOA population size or sediment depth/age. Such quantitative insights establish a relationship between the power supply and the total abundance of AOA, and therefore lay a foundation for a first-order estimate of the standing stock of AOA in global marine oxic sediments.

More efficient phosphorus use can avoid cropland expansion.

Global projections indicate that approximately 500 Mha of new arable land will be required to meet crop demand by 2050. Applying a dynamic phosphorus (P) pool simulator under different socioeconomic scenarios, we find that cropland expansion can be avoided with less than 7% additional cumulative P fertilizer over 2006-2050 when comparing with cropland expansion scenarios, mostly targeted at nutrient-depleted soils of sub-Saharan Africa. Additional P fertilizer would replenish P withdrawn from crop production, thereby allowing higher productivity levels. We also show that further agronomic improvements such as those that allow for better (legacy) P use in soils could reduce both P outflows to freshwater and coastal ecosystems and the overall demand for P fertilizer.

Geochemical transition zone powering microbial growth in subsurface sediments.

No other environment hosts as many microbial cells as the marine sedimentary biosphere. While the majority of these cells are expected to be alive, they are speculated to be persisting in a state of maintenance without net growth due to extreme starvation. Here, we report evidence for in situ growth of anaerobic ammonium-oxidizing (anammox) bacteria in ∼80,000-y-old subsurface sediments from the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge. The growth is confined to the nitrate-ammonium transition zone (NATZ), a widespread geochemical transition zone where most of the upward ammonium flux from deep anoxic sediments is being consumed. In this zone the anammox bacteria abundances, assessed by quantification of marker genes, consistently displayed a four order of magnitude increase relative to adjacent layers in four cores. This subsurface cell increase coincides with a markedly higher power supply driven mainly by intensified anammox reaction rates, thereby providing a quantitative link between microbial proliferation and energy availability. The reconstructed draft genome of the dominant anammox bacterium showed an index of replication (iRep) of 1.32, suggesting that 32% of this population was actively replicating. The genome belongs to a Scalindua species which we name Candidatus Scalindua sediminis, so far exclusively found in marine sediments. It has the capacity to utilize urea and cyanate and a mixotrophic lifestyle. Our results demonstrate that specific microbial groups are not only able to survive unfavorable conditions over geological timescales, but can proliferate in situ when encountering ideal conditions with significant consequences for biogeochemical nitrogen cycling.

Exploring Long-Term Changes in Silicon Biogeochemistry Along the River Continuum of the Rhine and Yangtze (Changjiang).

This paper presents the spatially explicit (0.5° spatial resolution) Dynamic InStream Chemistry (DISC)-SILICON module, which is part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment-Dynamic Global Nutrient Model global nutrient cycling framework. This new model, for the first time, enables to integrate the combined impact of long-term changes in land use, climate, and hydrology on Si sources (weathering, sewage, and soil loss) and sinks (uptake by diatoms, sedimentation, and burial) along the river continuum. Comparison of discharge and dissolved silica results with observations shows good agreement both in the Rhine and Yangtze. The simulated total Si export for the Rhine is stable during the period 1900-2000. The total Si export for the Yangtze decreased (155-51 Gmol yr-1) because of damming and transformation of 40% of the natural vegetation to cropland. As a result of dam construction in the Yangtze, diatom primary production (from 24 to 48 Gmol yr-1) and burial (15 to 32 Gmol yr-1) increased and the DSi export decreased (139-46 Gmol yr-1) from the 1950s to 1990s. The Three Gorges Reservoir has a large contribution to diatom primary production (11%) and burial (12%) in the Yangtze basin. DISC-SILICON reproduces a flooding-induced increase in Si inputs and burial and the legacy of this temporary storage in subsequent dry years.

Nitrifier abundance and diversity peak at deep redox transition zones.

More than half of the global ocean floor is draped by nutrient-starved sediments characterized by deep oxygen penetration and a prevalence of oxidized nitrogen. Despite low energy availability, this habitat hosts a vast microbial population, and geochemical characteristics suggest that nitrogen compounds are an energy source critical to sustaining this biomass. However, metabolic rates of nitrogen transformation and their link to microbial survival in this global-scale ecosystem remain virtually unknown. Here we provide quantitative constraints on microbial nitrogen cycling in open ocean oligotrophic sediments from seafloor to basement, spanning approximately 8 million years. We find active microbial nitrogen transformation throughout the sediment column but at very low rates. Local peaks in diversity and abundance of nitrifiers and denitrifiers occur at redox transition zones deep within the sediments, strongly indicating that these microbes are revived from their maintenance state and start growing again after millions of years of attrition.

Exploring spatiotemporal changes of the Yangtze River (Changjiang) nitrogen and phosphorus sources, retention and export to the East China Sea and Yellow Sea.

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows from land to sea in the Yangtze River basin were simulated for the period 1900-2010, by combining models for hydrology, nutrient input to surface water, and an in-stream retention. This study reveals that the basin-wide nutrient budget, delivery to surface water, and in-stream retention increased during this period. Since 2004, the Three Gorges Reservoir has contributed 5% and 7% of N and P basin-wide retention, respectively. With the dramatic rise in nutrient delivery, even this additional retention was insufficient to prevent an increase of riverine export from 337 Gg N yr-1 and 58 Gg P yr-1 (N:P molar ratio = 13) to 5896 Gg N yr-1 and 381 Gg P yr-1 (N:P molar ratio = 35) to the East China Sea and Yellow Sea (ECSYS). The midstream and upstream subbasins dominate the N and P exports to the ECSYS, respectively, due to various human activities along the river. Our spatially explicit nutrient source allocation can aid in the strategic targeting of nutrient reduction policies. We posit that these should focus on improving the agricultural fertilizer and manure use efficiency in the upstream and midstream and better urban wastewater management in the downstream subbasin.

Evidence for a palaeo-subglacial lake on the Antarctic continental shelf.

Subglacial lakes are widespread beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet but their control on ice-sheet dynamics and their ability to harbour life remain poorly characterized. Here we present evidence for a palaeo-subglacial lake on the Antarctic continental shelf. A distinct sediment facies recovered from a bedrock basin in Pine Island Bay indicates deposition within a low-energy lake environment. Diffusive-advection modelling demonstrates that low chloride concentrations in the pore water of the corresponding sediments can only be explained by initial deposition of this facies in a freshwater setting. These observations indicate that an active subglacial meltwater network, similar to that observed beneath the extant ice sheet, was also active during the last glacial period. It also provides a new framework for refining the exploration of these unique environments.

Global rates of marine sulfate reduction and implications for sub-sea-floor metabolic activities.

Sulfate reduction is a globally important redox process in marine sediments, yet global rates are poorly quantified. We developed an artificial neural network trained with 199 sulfate profiles, constrained with geomorphological and geochemical maps to estimate global sulfate-reduction rate distributions. Globally, 11.3 teramoles of sulfate are reduced yearly (~15% of previous estimates), accounting for the oxidation of 12 to 29% of the organic carbon flux to the sea floor. Combined with global cell distributions in marine sediments, these results indicate a strong contrast in sub-sea-floor prokaryote habitats: In continental margins, global cell numbers in sulfate-depleted sediment exceed those in the overlying sulfate-bearing sediment by one order of magnitude, whereas in the abyss, most life occurs in oxic and/or sulfate-reducing sediments.