ABSTRACT
Bangladesh registered 1573828 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the death toll crossed the grim milestone of 27946 across the country as of 9th December, 2021. Despite the enforcement of stringent COVID-19 measures, including nationwide lockdowns, travel bans, tighter curbs on nonessential activities, and social distancing, the country witnessed an accelerated diffusion of coronavirus cases during the national events and festivals in 2020. The present study aims to examine the association between the national events / festivals and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 by looking at the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt, of the 64 districts in Bangladesh. We further illustrate the COVID-19 diffusion explicitly in Dhaka Division at the first phase of the pandemic. The comprehensive analysis shows an escalation of Rt value in Dhaka and in all industrialized cities during the major events such as, Garments reopening and religious holidays in Bangladesh. Based on the analysis, a set of array measurements has been also suggested to evade the future pandemic risks while running the national festival activities. HighlightsO_LIBangladesh confirmed 1573828 coronavirus cases and 27946 deaths due to the current COVID-19 outbreak. C_LIO_LICountry observed significant COVID-19 diffusion in its business hubs during national holidays. C_LIO_LIDhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is the epicenter of the ongoing pandemic. C_LIO_LICalculated Rt value illustrates its escalation in Dhaka and its neighboring cities at the time of national events. C_LIO_LIBangladesh Government needs to consider interdisciplinary approaches and contextual policies to contain the future pandemic during any national events. C_LI
ABSTRACT
Identifying actual risk zones in a country where the overall test positive rate (TPR) is higher than 5% is crucial to contain the pandemic. However, TPR-based risk zoning methods are debatable since they do not consider the rate of infection in an area and thus, it has been observed to overestimate the risk. Similarly, the rate of infection in an area has been noticed to underestimate the risk of COVID-19 spreading for the zones with higher TPR. In this article, we discuss the shortcomings of currently available risk zoning methods that are followed in the lower-middle-income countries (LMIC), especially in Bangladesh. We then propose to determine a risk zone by combining the rate of infection with TPR and effective reproduction number, Rt in a distinct manner from existing methods. We evaluate the efficacy of the proposed method with respect to the mass-movement events and show its application to track the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic by identifying the risk zones over time. Demo website for the visualization of the analysis can be found at: http://erdos.dsm.fordham.edu:3000 CCS CONCEPTSO_LIApplied computing [->] Health informatics. C_LI ACM Reference FormatMd. Enamul Hoque, Md. Shariful Islam, Arnab Sen Sharma, Rashedul Islam, and Mohammad Ruhul Amin. 2021. Challenges in Tracking the Risk of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Evaluation of A Novel Method. In Proceedings of August 15 (KDD Workshop on Data-driven Humanitarian Mapping, 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference). ACM, New York, NY, USA, 7 pages.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 pandemic has been an ultimate test of resource management for any governance, especially in the healthcare system. Bangladesh, being a developing country and with very limited resources, is fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The frontline workers, especially the physicians and nurses are going through immense physical and psychological stress during the pandemic. Social unawareness, the absence of strict preventive policies, increasing workload, and the lack of resource management are making the frontline healthcare workers extremely vulnerable to COVID-19. In this paper, we present the outcome of our study on peritraumatic distress of COVID-19 among physicians in Bangladesh. Based on the user study, we have identified a number of key factors behind the peritraumatic distress and psychological stress caused by COVID-19. Our study shows, more than 78% respondents are suffering from peritraumatic psychological distress. We also recommended some very important and yet easy to implement policies to reduce the peritraumatic stress of the physicians of Bangladesh. These policy recommendations were a result of the survey analysis and the suggestions from the COVID-19 designated physicians.
ABSTRACT
As one of the most densely populated countries in the world, Bangladesh have been trying to contain the impact of a pandemic like COVID-19 since March, 2020. Although government announced an array of restricted measures to slow down the diffusion in the beginning of the pandemic, the lockdown has been lifted gradually by reopening all the industries, markets and offices with a notable exception of educational institutes. As the physical geography of Bangladesh is highly variable across the largest delta, the population of different regions and their lifestyle also differ in the country. Thus, to get the real scenario of the current pandemic across Bangladesh, it is essential to analyze the transmission dynamics over the individual districts. In this article, we propose to integrate the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) with classic SIRD model to explain the epidemic evolution of individual districts in the country. We show that UKF-SIRD model results in a robust prediction of the transmission dynamics for 1-4 months. Then we apply the robust UKF-SIRD model over different regions in Bangladesh to estimates the course of the epidemic. Our analysis demonstrate that in addition to the densely populated areas, industrial areas and popular tourist spots are in the risk of higher COVID-19 transmission. In the light of these outcomes, we provide a set of suggestions to contain the pandemic in Bangladesh. All the data and relevant codebase is available at https://mjonyh.github.io. HighlightsO_LIWe integrate the UKF with classic SIRD model for the better estimation of the COVID-19 diffusion of 64 districts in Bangladesh. C_LIO_LINationwide analysis show the strong correlation between population density and the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country. C_LIO_LIIndustrial zones and popular tourists spots are at greater risk of spreading the Coronavirus. C_LIO_LIWith the better assessment of the COVID-19 cases dynamics, the Government will find effective policies to contain the current pandemic. C_LI
ABSTRACT
Amid growing debate between scientists and policymakers on the trade-off between public safety and reviving economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Bangladesh decided to relax the countrywide lockdown restrictions from the beginning of June 2020. Instead, the Ministry of Public Affairs officials have declared some parts of the capital city and a few other districts as red zones or high-risk areas based on the number of people infected in the late June 2020. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 infection rate had been increasing in almost every other part of the country. Ironically, rather than ensuring rapid tests and isolation of COVID-19 patients, from the beginning of July 2020, the Directorate General of Health Services restrained the maximum number of tests per laboratory. Thus, the health experts have raised the question of whether the government is heading toward achieving herd immunity instead of containing the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, the dynamics of the pandemic due to SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh are analyzed with the SIRD model. We demonstrate that the herd immunity threshold can be reduced to 31% than that of 60% by considering age group cluster analysis resulting in a total of 53.0 million susceptible populations. With the data of Covid-19 cases till July 22, 2020, the time-varying reproduction numbers are used to explain the nature of the pandemic. Based on the estimations of active, severe, and critical cases, we discuss a set of policy recommendations to improve the current pandemic control methods in Bangladesh.
