Benchmarking the US physician workforce. An alternative to needs-based or demand-based planning.

OBJECTIVE: To propose population-based benchmarking as an alternative to needs- or demand-based planning for estimating a reasonably sized, clinically active physician workforce for the United States and its regional health care markets. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of 1993 American Medical Association and American Osteopathic Association physician masterfiles. POPULATION: The resident population of the 306 hospital referral regions in the United States. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Per capita number of clinically active physicians by specialty adjusted for age and sex population differences and out-of-region health care utilization. The measured physician workforce was compared with 4 benchmarks: the staffing within a large (2.4 million members) health maintenance organization (HMO), a hospital referral region dominated by managed care (Minneapolis, Minn), a hospital referral region dominated by fee-for-service (Wichita, Kan), and the proposed "balanced" physician supply (50% generalists). RESULTS: The proportion of the US population residing in hospital referral regions with a higher per capita generalist workforce than the benchmark was 96% for the HMO benchmark, 60% for Wichita, and 27% for Minneapolis. The specialist workforce exceeded all 3 benchmarks for 74% of the population. The per capita workforce of generalists was not related to the proportion of generalists among regions (Pearson correlation coefficient=0.06; P=.26). CONCLUSIONS: Population-based benchmarking offers practical advantages to needs- or demand-based planning for estimating a reasonably sized per capita workforce of clinically active physicians. The physician workforce within the benchmarks of an HMO and health care markets indicates the varying opportunities for regional physician employment and services. The ratio of generalists to specialists does not measure the adequacy of the supply of the generalist workforce either nationally or for specific regions. Research measuring the relationship between physician workforces of different sizes and population outcomes will guide the selection of future regional benchmarks.

The geography of AIDS: patterns of urban and rural migration.

We sought to describe the migration patterns of patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who seek health services in North Carolina. Of 390 consecutive adult patients with HIV seen at one tertiary care medical center in the southeastern United States in the summer of 1990, 340 (87%) were approached, and 325 (83%) completed surveys. Thirty-seven percent of respondents thought they had been infected and 20% were told they were infected with HIV while living outside of North Carolina. One in five patients thought they had been infected while living in a rural county and more than half now live in rural communities (population of < 50,000). Sixty percent of patients had moved to North Carolina since 1980; 61% of these were North Carolina natives. Injecting drug users were more likely than those with other modes of exposure to HIV to have been diagnosed with HIV infection out of state (34% vs 18%). Patients' reasons for moving to North Carolina included social support (88%), health reasons (54%), and better work/educational opportunities (52%). We found that most patients with HIV who seek health care services in North Carolina live in rural areas with their families, and a substantial proportion migrated in after they were diagnosed out of state. Characterizing these migration patterns is crucial for predicting the diffusion of HIV to rural areas; designing AIDS prevention strategies, education, and health service needs; and assessing federal HIV care funding policies.