Influence of respiratory infections pandemics on the mortality of the population of Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To analyze the dynamics and structure of the excess mortality of the population of Ukraine for 76 years (1945-2021). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: An observational population study was conducted. Epidemiological methods were used, in particular, the method of graphical construction of time series, intensive, extensive indicators and indicators of excess mortality were calculated. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The coronavirus disease pandemic in Ukraine became the largest documented respiratory infection pandemic after 76 years, but did not outweigh the dramatic increase in mortality in the 1990s-2000s, in including death in 1995.

Foodborne Botulism in Ukraine from 1955 to 2018.

We aim to identify possible biological, social, and economic factors that could influence the prevalence of foodborne botulism (FB). The objective of this article is to assess epidemiological peculiarities of FB in Ukraine from 1955 to 2018 using national epidemiological surveillance data. This article presents an epidemiological descriptive population-based study of the epidemiology of FB using correlation analysis. From 1955 to 2018, 8614 cases of botulism were recorded in Ukraine causing 659 deaths. The distribution of types of botulism toxins is represented by type A (7.97%), B (59.64%), suspected as C (0.56%), E (25.47%), others (5.33%), and unidentified (1.04%). From 1990 to 2015, the rate correlation between Human Development Index (HDI) and incidence of botulism was -0.75 ± 0.20. Homemade canned meat and fish continue to be the leading causes of botulism in Ukraine. Cases related to commercial food were rare or absent, but in recent years (2017-2018), their percentage has increased to 32.56%. The HDI and botulism have an inverse mathematical correlation and predictable logical relationship: with an HDI increase, the incidence of FB decreased. In general, food botulism in Ukraine is related to traditional socioeconomic factors related to cultural food habits. In the face of declining living standards and uncertainty that food products will be physically or economically available, homemade preservation increases. Home food preservation is a major cause of botulism in Ukraine. The elimination of FB is possible in Ukraine only with the complete cessation of home canning and state control over the manufacture and sale of commercial canned products.

Multiple Linear Regression Model of Meningococcal Disease in Ukraine: 1992-2015.

Estimating the rates of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) from epidemiologic data remains critical for making public health decisions. In Ukraine, such estimations have not been performed. We used epidemiological data to develop a national database. These data were used to estimate the population susceptible to IMD and identify the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers of N. meningitidis using simple epidemiological models of meningococcal disease that may be used by the national policy makers. The goal was to create simple, easily understood analysis of patterns of the infection within Ukraine that would capture the major features of the infection dynamics. Studies used nationally reported data during 1992-2015. A logic model identified the prevalence of carriage and the proportion of the population susceptible to IMD as key drivers of IMD incidence. Multiple linear regression models for all ages (total population) and for children ≤14 years old were fit to national-level data. Linear models with the incidence of IMD as an outcome were highly associated with carriage and estimated susceptible population in both total population and children (R 2 = 0.994 and R 2 = 0.978, respectively). The susceptibility rate to IMD in the study total population averaged 0.0034 ± 0.0009% annually. At the national level, IMD can be characterized by the simple interaction between the prevalence of asymptomatic carriage and the proportion of the susceptible population. IMD association with prevalence rates of carriage and the proportion of susceptible population is sufficiently strong for national-level planning of intervention strategies for IMD.

Contribution of Vaccination to the Reduction of Infectious Mortality in Ukraine in the Second Half of the 20th and Early 21st Century: A Comparative Population-Based Study of the Dynamics and Structure of Infectious Mortality and Incidence.

Our work presents an epidemiological analysis of the dynamics and structure of the annual indicators such as Cumulative Incidence, Mortality Rate (MR), and Case Fatality Rate for infections preventable by vaccines (vaccine-preventable infections-VPIs) in Ukraine between 1944 and 2015 compared to the same indicators for infections not preventable by vaccines (nonvaccine-preventable infections-non-VPIs). In 1965, the proportion of all infectious diseases in the context of mortality (7.47%), and especially of VPI (3.77%), including those registered among children aged 0-14 years (2.12%), testifies to the low profile of infectious diseases by the time of routine vaccination introduction. The analyses of these particular data are important with respect to the role of vaccination programs in reducing not only the total infectious mortality but also mortality related to VPIs in the twentieth century. Interestingly, in Ukraine between 1965 and 2015, similar rates of mortality reduction were observed in both the total population (1.6-2.6 times) and in children under 14 (15.2-20.4 times) for both VPIs and non-VPIs. During the 1944-2015 period in Ukraine, the reduction of MR of VPI (tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, poliomyelitis, measles, and hepatitis B) varied greatly, ranging from 40.5 times (tetanus) to 1,061.1 times (measles), but in general, the reduction incidence rate of VPI was significantly lower ranging from 42.4 times (measles) to 471.1 times (diphtheria). The ratio of incidence and mortality reduction in percent shows the contribution of vaccination to the mortality reduction for various infections during 1944-2015. This ratio ranged from 0% (tuberculosis) to 84.9% (tetanus), provided that the reduction of the VPI incidence 100% depends on vaccine effects. Thus, we can assume that the observed reduction in mortality for some VPIs was, in part, caused by factors not associated with vaccines.