Air pollution and suicide in rural and urban America: Evidence from wildfire smoke.

Air pollution poses well-established risks to physical health, but little is known about its effects on mental health. We study the relationship between wildfire smoke exposure and suicide risk in the United States in 2007 to 2019 using data on all deaths by suicide and satellite-based measures of wildfire smoke and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. We identify the causal effects of wildfire smoke pollution on suicide by relating year-over-year fluctuations in county-level monthly smoke exposure to fluctuations in suicide rates and compare the effects across local areas and demographic groups that differ considerably in their baseline suicide risk. In rural counties, an additional day of smoke increases monthly mean PM2.5 by 0.41 µg/m3 and suicide deaths by 0.11 per million residents, such that a 1-µg/m3 (13%) increase in monthly wildfire-derived fine particulate matter leads to 0.27 additional suicide deaths per million residents (a 2.0% increase). These effects are concentrated among demographic groups with both high baseline suicide risk and high exposure to outdoor air: men, working-age adults, non-Hispanic Whites, and adults with no college education. By contrast, we find no evidence that smoke pollution increases suicide risk among any urban demographic group. This study provides large-scale evidence that air pollution elevates the risk of suicide, disproportionately so among rural populations.

Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions.

We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.

Geographic and Socioeconomic Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution in the United States.

Policies aimed at reducing the harmful effects of air pollution exposure typically focus on areas with high levels of pollution. However, if a population's vulnerability to air pollution is imperfectly correlated with current pollution levels, then this approach to air quality regulation may not efficiently target pollution reduction efforts. We examine the geographic and socioeconomic determinants of vulnerability to dying from acute exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. We find that there is substantial local and regional variability in the share of individuals who are vulnerable to pollution both at the county and ZIP code level. Vulnerability tends to be negatively related to health and socioeconomic status. Surprisingly, we find that vulnerability is also negatively related to an area's average PM2.5 pollution level, suggesting that basing air quality regulation only on current pollution levels may fail to effectively target regions with the most to gain by reducing exposure.

Macrophage frequency in the bone marrow correlates with morphologic subtype of myeloproliferative neoplasm.

Bone marrow (BM) fibrosis in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) is associated with a poor prognosis. The development of myelofibrosis and differentiation of mesenchymal stromal cells to profibrotic myofibroblasts depends on macrophages. Here, we compared macrophage frequencies in BM biopsies of MPN patients and controls (patients with non-neoplastic processes), including primary myelofibrosis (PMF, n = 18), essential thrombocythemia (ET, n = 14), polycythemia vera (PV, n = 12), and Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia (CML, n = 9). In PMF, CD68-positive macrophages were greatly increased compared to CML (p = 0.017) and control BM (p < 0.001). Similar findings were observed by CD163 staining (PMF vs. CML: p = 0.017; PMF vs. control: p < 0.001). Moreover, CD68-positive macrophages were increased in PV compared with ET (p = 0.009) and reactive cases (p < 0.001). PMF had higher frequencies of macrophages than PV (CD68: p < 0.001; CD163: p < 0.001) and ET (CD68: p < 0.001; CD163: p < 0.001). CD163 and CD68 were often co-expressed in macrophages with stellate morphology in Philadelphia chromosome-negative MPN, resulting in a sponge-like reticular network that may be a key regulator of unbalanced hematopoiesis in the BM space and may explain differences in cellularity and clinical course.

Effects of a Workplace Wellness Program on Employee Health, Health Beliefs, and Medical Use: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Many employers use workplace wellness programs to improve employee health and reduce medical costs, but randomized evaluations of their efficacy are rare. Objective: To evaluate the effect of a comprehensive workplace wellness program on employee health, health beliefs, and medical use after 12 and 24 months. Design, Setting, and Participants: This randomized clinical trial of 4834 employees of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign was conducted from August 9, 2016, to April 26, 2018. Members of the treatment group (n = 3300) received incentives to participate in the workplace wellness program. Members of the control group (n = 1534) did not participate in the wellness program. Statistical analysis was performed on April 9, 2020. Interventions: The 2-year workplace wellness program included financial incentives and paid time off for annual on-site biometric screenings, annual health risk assessments, and ongoing wellness activities (eg, physical activity, smoking cessation, and disease management). Main Outcomes and Measures: Measures taken at 12 and 24 months included clinician-collected biometrics (16 outcomes), administrative claims related to medical diagnoses (diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia) and medical use (office visits, inpatient visits, and emergency department visits), and self-reported health behaviors and health beliefs (14 outcomes). Results: Among the 4834 participants (2770 women; mean [SD] age, 43.9 [11.3] years), no significant effects of the program on biometrics, medical diagnoses, or medical use were seen after 12 or 24 months. A significantly higher proportion of employees in the treatment group than in the control group reported having a primary care physician after 24 months (1106 of 1200 [92.2%] vs 477 of 554 [86.1%]; adjusted P = .002). The intervention significantly improved a set of employee health beliefs on average: participant beliefs about their chance of having a body mass index greater than 30, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and impaired glucose level jointly decreased by 0.07 SDs (95% CI, -0.12 to -0.01 SDs; P = .02); however, effects on individual belief measures were not significant. Conclusions and Relevance: This randomized clinical trial showed that a comprehensive workplace wellness program had no significant effects on measured physical health outcomes, rates of medical diagnoses, or the use of health care services after 24 months, but it increased the proportion of employees reporting that they have a primary care physician and improved employee beliefs about their own health. Trial Registration: American Economic Association Randomized Controlled Trial Registry number: AEARCTR-0001368.

Does When You Die Depend on Where You Live? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina.

We follow Medicare cohorts to estimate Hurricane Katrina's long-run mortality effects on victims initially living in New Orleans. Including the initial shock, the hurricane improved eight-year survival by 2.07 percentage points. Migration to lower-mortality regions explains most of this survival increase. Those migrating to low-versus high-mortality regions look similar at baseline, but their subsequent mortality is 0.83-1.01 percentage points lower per percentage point reduction in local mortality, quantifying causal effects of place on mortality among this population. Migrants' mortality is also lower in destinations with healthier behaviors and higher incomes but is unrelated to local medical spending and quality.

What do Workplace Wellness Programs do? Evidence from the Illinois Workplace Wellness Study.

Workplace wellness programs cover over 50 million U.S. workers and are intended to reduce medical spending, increase productivity, and improve well-being. Yet limited evidence exists to support these claims. We designed and implemented a comprehensive workplace wellness program for a large employer and randomly assigned program eligibility and financial incentives at the individual level for nearly 5,000 employees. We find strong patterns of selection: during the year prior to the intervention, program participants had lower medical expenditures and healthier behaviors than nonparticipants. The program persistently increased health screening rates, but we do not find significant causal effects of treatment on total medical expenditures, other health behaviors, employee productivity, or self-reported health status after more than two years. Our 95% confidence intervals rule out 84% of previous estimates on medical spending and absenteeism.

The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction.

We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mortality effects are concentrated in about 25 percent of the elderly population.

THE LOCAL INFLUENCE OF PIONEER INVESTIGATORS ON TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: EVIDENCE FROM NEW CANCER DRUGS.

Local opinion leaders may play a key role in easing information frictions associated with technology adoption. This paper analyzes the influence of physician investigators who lead clinical trials for new cancer drugs. By comparing diffusion patterns across 21 new cancer drugs, we separate correlated regional demand for new technology from information spillovers. Patients in the lead investigator's region are initially 36% more likely to receive the new drug, but utilization converges within four years. We also find that superstar physician authors, measured by trial role or citation history, have broader influence than less prominent authors.

The Evolution of Physician Practice Styles: Evidence from Cardiologist Migration.

Physician treatment choices for observably similar patients vary dramatically across regions. This paper exploits cardiologist migration to disentangle the role of physician-specific factors such as preferences and learned behavior versus environment-level factors such as hospital capacity and productivity spillovers on physician behavior. Physicians starting in the same region and subsequently moving to dissimilar regions practice similarly before the move. After the move, physician behavior in the first year changes by 0.6-0.8 percentage points for each percentage point change in practice environment, with no further changes over time. This suggests environment factors explain between 60-80 percent of regional disparities in physician behavior.

Association between rainfall and diagnoses of joint or back pain: retrospective claims analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To study the relation between rainfall and outpatient visits for joint or back pain in a large patient population. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: US Medicare insurance claims data linked to rainfall data from US weather stations. PARTICIPANTS: 1 552 842 adults aged ≥65 years attending a total of 11 673 392 outpatient visits with a general internist during 2008-12. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The proportion of outpatient visits for joint or back pain related conditions (rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, spondylosis, intervertebral disc disorders, and other non-traumatic joint disorders) was compared between rainy days and non-rainy days, adjusting for patient characteristics, chronic conditions, and geographic fixed effects (thereby comparing rates of joint or back pain related outpatient visits on rainy days versus non-rainy days within the same area). RESULTS: Of the 11 673 392 outpatient visits by Medicare beneficiaries, 2 095 761 (18.0%) occurred on rainy days. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, the difference in the proportion of patients with joint or back pain between rainy days and non-rainy days was significant (unadjusted, 6.23% v 6.42% of visits, P<0.001; adjusted, 6.35% v 6.39%, P=0.05), but the difference was in the opposite anticipated direction and was so small that it is unlikely to be clinically meaningful. No statistically significant relation was found between the proportion of claims for joint or back pain and the number of rainy days in the week of the outpatient visit. No relation was found among a subgroup of patients with rheumatoid arthritis. CONCLUSION: In a large analysis of older Americans insured by Medicare, no relation was found between rainfall and outpatient visits for joint or back pain. A relation may still exist, and therefore larger, more detailed data on disease severity and pain would be useful to support the validity of this commonly held belief.