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1.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21265512

ABSTRACT

Vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 are effective in COVID-19. However, with limited vaccine access, vaccine hesitancy and variant breakthroughs, there is still a need for effective and safe early treatments. Two community-based clinical trials of the inhaled corticosteroid, budesonide, have recently been published showing and improvement in patients with COVID-19 treated early with budesonide1,2. To understand mechanistically how budesonide was beneficial, inflammatory mediators were assessed in the nasal mucosa of patients recruited to the Steroids in COVID (STOIC1) trial and a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 negative individuals. Here we show that in early COVID-19, elevation in viral response proteins and Th1 and Th2 inflammation occurs. Longitudinal sampling in the natural course of COVID-19 showed persistently high interferon levels and elevated concentrations of the eosinophil chemokine, CCL11. In patients who deteriorate, the initial nasal mucosal signal is characterised by a marked suppression of the early inflammatory response, with reduced concentrations of interferon and inflammatory cytokines, but elevated eosinophil chemokines. Systemic inflammation remained altered in COVID-19 patients, implying that even after symptom resolution, changes in immunological mediators do not resolve. Budesonide treatment decreased IL-33 and IFN-{gamma}, implying a reduction in epithelial damage and dampening of the interferon response. Budesonide treatment also increased CCL17 concentrations, suggesting an improved T-cell response; and significantly alters inflammatory pathways giving further insight into how this treatment can accelerate patient recovery. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=92 SRC="FIGDIR/small/21265512v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (27K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@849719org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@dc1087org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1c13369org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1163fb4_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

2.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21254672

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDInhaled budesonide has shown efficacy for treating COVID-19 in the community but has not yet been tested in effectiveness trials. METHODSWe performed a multicenter, open-label, multi-arm, adaptive platform randomized controlled trial involving people aged [≥]65 years, or [≥]50 years with comorbidities, and unwell [≤]14 days with suspected COVID-19 in the community (PRINCIPLE). Participants were randomized to usual care, usual care plus inhaled budesonide (800{micro}g twice daily for 14 days), or usual care plus other interventions. The co-primary endpoints are time to first self-reported recovery, and hospitalization/death related to COVID-19, both measured over 28 days from randomisation and analysed using Bayesian models. RESULTSThe trial opened on April 2, 2020. Randomization to inhaled budesonide began on November 27, 2020 and was stopped on March 31, 2021 based on an interim analysis using data from March 4, 2021. Here, we report updated interim analysis data from March 25, 2021, at which point the trial had randomized 4663 participants with suspected COVID-19. Of these, 2617 (56.1%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive and contributed data to this interim budesonide primary analysis; 751 budesonide, 1028 usual care and 643 to other interventions. Time to first self-reported recovery was shorter in the budesonide group compared to usual care (hazard ratio 1.208 [95% BCI 1.076 - 1.356], probability of superiority 0.999, estimated benefit [95% BCI] of 3.011 [1.134 - 5.41] days). Among those in the interim budesonide primary analysis who had the opportunity to contribute data for 28 days follow up, there were 59/692 (8.5%) COVID-19 related hospitalizations/deaths in the budesonide group vs 100/968 (10.3%) in the usual care group (estimated percentage benefit, 2.1% [95% BCI -0.7% - 4.8%], probability of superiority 0.928). CONCLUSIONSIn this updated interim analysis, inhaled budesonide reduced time to recovery by a median of 3 days in people with COVID-19 with risk factors for adverse outcomes. Once 28 day follow up is complete for all participants randomized to budesonide, final analyses of time to recovery and hospitalization/death will be published. (Funded by the National Institute of Health Research/ United Kingdom Research Innovation [MC_PC_19079]; PRINCIPLE ISRCTN number, ISRCTN86534580.)

3.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21251134

ABSTRACT

BackgroundMultiple early hospital cohorts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) showed that patients with chronic respiratory disease were significantly under-represented. We hypothesised that the widespread use of inhaled glucocorticoids was responsible for this finding and tested if inhaled glucorticoids would be an effective treatment for early COVID-19 illness. MethodsWe conducted a randomised, open label trial of inhaled budesonide, compared to usual care, in adults within 7 days of the onset of mild Covid-19 symptoms. The primary end point was COVID-19-related urgent care visit, emergency department assessment or hospitalisation. The trial was stopped early after independent statistical review concluded that study outcome would not change with further participant enrolment. Results146 patients underwent randomisation. For the per protocol population (n=139), the primary outcome occurred in 10 participants and 1 participant in the usual care and budesonide arms respectively (difference in proportion 0.131, p=0.004). The number needed to treat with inhaled budesonide to reduce COVID-19 deterioration was 8. Clinical recovery was 1 day shorter in the budesonide arm compared to the usual care arm (median of 7 days versus 8 days respectively, logrank test p=0.007). Proportion of days with a fever and proportion of participants with at least 1 day of fever was lower in the budesonide arm. Fewer participants randomised to budesonide had persistent symptoms at day 14 and day 28 compared to participants receiving usual care. ConclusionEarly administration of inhaled budesonide reduced the likelihood of needing urgent medical care and reduced time to recovery following early COVID-19 infection. (Funded by Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre and AstraZeneca; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04416399) Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThe majority of interventions studied for the COVID-19 pandemic are focused on hospitalised patients. Widely available and broadly relevant interventions for mild COVID-19 are urgently needed. Added value of this studyIn this open label randomised controlled trial, inhaled budesonide, when given to adults with early COVID-19 illness, reduces the likelihood of requiring urgent care, emergency department consultation or hospitalisation. There was also a quicker resolution of fever, a known poor prognostic marker in COVID-19 and a faster self-reported and questionnaire reported symptom resolution. There were fewer participants with persistent COVID-19 symptoms at 14 and 28 days after budesonide therapy compared to usual care. Implications of all the available evidenceThe STOIC trial potentially provides the first easily accessible effective intervention in early COVID-19. By assessing health care resource utilisation, the study provides an exciting option to help with the worldwide pressure on health care systems due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from this study also suggests a potentially effective treatment to prevent the long term morbidity from persistent COVID-19 symptoms.

4.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20059824

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic is placing unprecedented demands on healthcare systems worldwide and exacting a massive humanitarian toll. This makes the development of accurate predictive models imperative, not just for understanding the course of the pandemic but more importantly for gaining insight into the efficacy of public health measures and planning accordingly. Epidemiological models are forced to make assumptions about many unknowns and therefore can be unreliable. Here, taking an empirical approach, we report a 20-30 day lag between the peak of confirmed to recovered cases and the peak of daily deaths in each country, independent of the epoch of that country in its pandemic cycle. This analysis is expected to be largely independent of the proportion of the population being tested and therefore should aid in planning around the timing and easing of public health measures. Our data also suggests broad predictions for the number of fatalities, generally somewhat lower than most other models. Finally, our model suggests that the world as a whole is shortly to enter a recovery phase, at least as far as the first pandemic wave is concerned.

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