Baseline biomarkers of connectome disruption and atrophy predict future processing speed in early multiple sclerosis.

The development of accurate prognoses in multiple sclerosis is difficult, as the disease is characterized by heterogeneous patterns of brain abnormalities that relate in an unclear way to future impairments. Here, we use a statistical modeling approach to determine if the baseline pattern of connectome disruption due to T2-FLAIR lesions could predict a patient's future processing speed, as measured using the Symbol Digits Modality Test scores. Imaging data, demographics and Symbol Digits Modality Test scores were collected from 61 early relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis patients. The Network Modification Tool was used to estimate damage to the connectome by quantifying white matter abnormalities' effects on 1) global network properties, 2) regional connectivity and 3) connectivity between pairs of regions. MS subjects showed significant improvement of processing speed between baseline and follow-up (t = -2.6, p = 0.0096); however, both baseline (t = -4.01, p = 0.00012) and follow-up (t = -2.10, p = 0.038) processing speed were significantly lower than age-matched healthy controls. Partial Least Squares Regression was used to create models that predict future processing speed from between baseline imaging metrics and demographics. The model based on region-pair disconnection and gray matter atrophy had the lowest AIC and highest prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.79) compared to models based on global (R2 = 0.41) or regional (R2 = 0.66) disconnection and gray matter atrophy, overlap with an ROI-based atlas and gray matter atrophy (R2 = 0.73) or gray matter atrophy alone (R2 = 0.71). We found that baseline measures of connectivity disruption in various parietal, temporal, occipital and subcortical regions and atrophy in the putamen were important predictors of future processing speed. We conclude that information about disruptions to pairwise brain connections is more informative of future processing speed than regional or global metrics or gray matter atrophy alone. The combination of quantitative disconnectome metrics, gray matter atrophy and statistical modeling approaches could enable clinicians in developing more accurate, individualized prognoses of future cognitive status in multiple sclerosis patients.

Modeling the relationship among gray matter atrophy, abnormalities in connecting white matter, and cognitive performance in early multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Quantitative assessment of clinical and pathologic consequences of white matter abnormalities in multiple sclerosis is critical in understanding the pathways of disease. This study aimed to test whether gray matter atrophy was related to abnormalities in connecting white matter and to identify patterns of imaging biomarker abnormalities that were related to patient processing speed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Image data and Symbol Digit Modalities Test scores were collected from a cohort of patients with early multiple sclerosis. The Network Modification Tool was used to estimate connectivity irregularities by projecting white matter abnormalities onto connecting gray matter regions. Partial least-squares regression quantified the relationship between imaging biomarkers and processing speed as measured by the Symbol Digit Modalities Test. RESULTS: Atrophy in deep gray matter structures of the thalami and putamen had moderate and significant correlations with abnormalities in connecting white matter (r = 0.39-0.41, P < .05 corrected). The 2 models of processing speed, 1 for each of the WM imaging biomarkers, had goodness-of-fit (R(2)) values of 0.42 and 0.30. A measure of the impact of white matter lesions on the connectivity of occipital and parietal areas had significant nonzero regression coefficients. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that deep gray matter regions may be susceptible to inflammation and/or demyelination in white matter, possibly having a higher sensitivity to remote degeneration, and that lesions affecting visual processing pathways were related to processing speed. The Network Modification Tool may be used to quantify the impact of early white matter abnormalities on both connecting gray matter structures and processing speed.