A few considerations on some current modelling approaches to assess the impact of radiation on the population size of wildlife species.

This note outlines some features of current state-of-the-art models aimed at assessing the radiological impact on wildlife. Such models can be interpreted as particular realisations of an archetypal model from which they can be derived on the basis of specific hypotheses described and analysed here. A stressor can influence, to varying degrees, on the one hand, the inherent biological mortality of a species and, on the other hand, the actual mortality of a species competing for survival in the ecosystem. Generally, the actual mortality rate of a species impacted by a stressor is linked through complicated mathematical relationships to the excess biological mortality caused by the stressor. Such relationships may depend on the particular type of model. The models can be of help to select criteria for the assessment of the radiological impact and to identify suitable parameters for its evaluation.

Application of the migration models implemented in the decision system MOIRA-PLUS to assess the long term behaviour of (137)Cs in water and fish of the Baltic Sea.

This work presents and discusses the results of an application of the contaminant migration models implemented in the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS to simulate the time behaviour of the concentrations of (137)Cs of Chernobyl origin in water and fish of the Baltic Sea. The results of the models were compared with the extensive sets of highly reliable empirical data of radionuclide contamination available from international databases and covering a period of, approximately, twenty years. The model application involved three main phases: a) the customisation performed by using hydrological, morphometric and water circulation data obtained from the literature; b) a blind test of the model results, in the sense that the models made use of default values of the migration parameters to predict the dynamics of the contaminant in the environmental components; and c) the adjustment of the model parameter values to improve the agreement of the predictions with the empirical data. The results of the blind test showed that the models successfully predicted the empirical contamination values within the expected range of uncertainty of the predictions (confidence level at 68% of approximately a factor 2). The parameter adjustment can be helpful for the assessment of the fluxes of water circulating among the main sub-basins of the Baltic Sea, substantiating the usefulness of radionuclides to trace the movement of masses of water in seas.

Predicting the effect of ionising radiation on biological populations: testing of a non-linear Leslie model applied to a small mammal population.

The present work describes the application of a non-linear Leslie model for predicting the effects of ionising radiation on wild populations. The model assumes that, for protracted chronic irradiation, the effect-dose relationship is linear. In particular, the effects of radiation are modelled by relating the increase in the mortality rates of the individuals to the dose rates through a proportionality factor C. The model was tested using independent data and information from a series of experiments that were aimed at assessing the response to radiation of wild populations of meadow voles and whose results were described in the international literature. The comparison of the model results with the data selected from the above mentioned experiments showed that the model overestimated the detrimental effects of radiation on the size of irradiated populations when the values of C were within the range derived from the median lethal dose (L50) for small mammals. The described non-linear model suggests that the non-expressed biotic potential of the species whose growth is limited by processes of environmental resistance, such as the competition among the individuals of the same or of different species for the exploitation of the available resources, can be a factor that determines a more effective response of population to the radiation effects.

Inter-comparison of population models for the calculation of radiation dose effects on wildlife.

An inter-comparison of five models designed to predict the effect of ionizing radiation on populations of non-human wildlife, performed under the IAEA EMRAS II programme, is presented and discussed. A benchmark scenario 'Population response to chronic irradiation' was developed in which stable generic populations of mice, hare/rabbit, wolf/wild dog and deer were modelled as subjected to chronic low-LET radiation with dose rates of 0-5 × 10(-2) Gy day(-1) in increments of 10(-2) Gy day(-1). The duration of exposure simulations was 5 years. Results are given for the size of each surviving population for each of the applied dose rates at the end of the 1st to 5th years of exposure. Despite the theoretical differences in the modelling approaches, the inter-comparison allowed the identification of a series of common findings. At dose rates of about 10(-2) Gy day(-1) for 5 years, the survival of populations of short-lived species was better than that of long-lived species: significant reduction in large mammals was predicted whilst small mammals survive at 80-100 % of the control. Dose rates in excess of 2 × 10(-2) Gy day(-1) for 5 years produced considerable reduction in all populations. From this study, a potential relationship between higher reproduction rates and lower radiation effects at population level can be hypothesized. The work signals the direction for future investigations to validate and improve the predictive ability of different population dose effects models.

Customisation of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS for applications to the marine environment.

The present short communication describes a technique to customise the decision system MOIRA-PLUS for applications to the marine environment. MOIRA-PLUS was originally designed to predict the behaviour of ¹³7Cs and 9°Sr in fresh water ecosystems and to evaluate the environmental, social and economic impacts of selected countermeasures aimed at restoring the polluted environment and at reducing the doses to man. An example of application for predicting the concentration of radiocaesium of Chernobyl origin in the Mediterranean Sea is described and discussed. The technique allows the user to easily integrate existing state-of-the-art box models of sea water circulation into the MOIRA-PLUS decision system.

Recommendations from the International Union of Radioecology to improve guidance on radiation protection.

This brief commentary summarizes the views of a working group assembled by the International Union of Radioecology to advance the approaches used to evaluate effects of radioactive materials in the environment. The key message in both the research needs and the recommendations for management of radioactive materials centers around the need to adopt an ecocentric approach that recognizes the interconnectedness of biota, including humans, and ecological processes.

Regional-scale application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS: an example of assessment of the radiological impact of the Chernobyl accident on the fresh water ecosystem in Italy.

The present work illustrates the customisation and application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS (a MOdel-based computerised system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) to the fresh water environment in Italy. MOIRA-PLUS is aimed at evaluating the behaviour of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in fresh water ecosystems and at assessing the appropriateness of suitable strategies for the management of contaminated water bodies by the application of multi-attribute analysis techniques. MOIRA-PLUS can be applied to complex networks of lakes, rivers and tributaries and can be straightforwardly customised utilising data and information from readily accessible sources such as official websites provided by scientific or government organisations. The present work shows an application of the decision system to 10 lakes and 18 rivers in Italy contaminated with (137)Cs of Chernobyl origin. Site-specific values of some aggregated transfer parameters were estimated for the most important Italian lakes. Although high values of fish and water consumptions were hypothesised, very low doses to public from the fresh water pathway following the accident were calculated.

Modelling multiple dispersion of radionuclides through the environment.

The migration of a contaminant through the environment is the result of the transport by a variety of biotic and abiotic carriers which move according to different dispersion mechanisms. Consequently, the patterns of the distribution of a pollutant in the environment cannot be ever explained on the basis of a single migration process or assuming that the concentrations of contaminant in the different kinds of carriers quickly reach the equilibrium condition. The present work discusses two examples (wash-off from catchments and transport through soils of radionuclides) that clearly demonstrate the inadequacy of "single dispersion" models to predict these patterns. On the contrary, models based on multiple dispersion can successfully simulate the particular features of the above mentioned processes. It was demonstrated that the time behaviour of radionuclide migration rates from catchment of different rivers vary within small ranges as a consequence of multiple dispersion. This result can be useful for the development of generic predictive models.

Predicting the effects of ionising radiation on ecosystems by a generic model based on the Lotka-Volterra equations.

The present work describes a model for predicting the population dynamics of the main components (resources and consumers) of terrestrial ecosystems exposed to ionising radiation. The ecosystem is modelled by the Lotka-Volterra equations with consumer competition. Linear dose-response relationships without threshold are assumed to relate the values of the model parameters to the dose rates. The model accounts for the migration of consumers from areas characterised by different levels of radionuclide contamination. The criteria to select the model parameter values are motivated by accounting for the results of the empirical studies of past decades. Examples of predictions for long-term chronic exposure are reported and discussed.

The role of physical processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclide contaminants in the aquatic environment: a review of state-of-the-art modelling approaches.

This paper is aimed at presenting and discussing the methodologies implemented in state-of-the-art models for predicting the physical processes of radionuclide migration through the aquatic environment, including transport due to water currents, diffusion, settling and re-suspension. Models are briefly described, model parameter values reviewed and values recommended. The different modelling approaches are briefly classified and the advantages and disadvantages of the various model approaches and methodologies are assessed.

Testing models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in aquatic systems.

The paper describes the main results of the international EMRAS model testing exercise for radionuclide transport in watershed-river and estuarine systems. The exercises included the following scenarios: multi-point source of (3)H discharge into the Loire River (France), radioactive contamination of the Dnieper-Southern Boug estuary (Ukraine), remobilisation of radionuclide contamination from the Pripyat River floodplain (Ukraine) following the Chernobyl accident, release of radionuclides into the Techa River (Russia) and behaviour of (226)Ra in the Huelva estuary (Spain).

Assessment, validation and intercomparison of operational models for predicting tritium migration from routine discharges of nuclear power plants: the case of Loire River.

During last decades, a number of projects have been launched to validate models for predicting the behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment. The project of the "Aquatic" working group of the project EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was based on the validation and assessment of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystems. The present paper describes a blind test of models aimed at assessing the dispersion of tritium releases in the Loire River (France), on a large domain ( approximately 350km) and on a period of six months, by comparing the results obtained by operational-to-experimental values of tritium concentration at Angers, a city along the Loire River. The common conclusion is that the models used by the different participants namely 1D models and models based on a schematic hydraulic (box models) are reliable tools for tritium transport modelling. Nevertheless, the importance of proper and detailed hydrological data for the appropriate prediction of pollutant migration in water is demonstrated by the example provided during this study.

Assessment of state-of-the-art models for predicting the remobilisation of radionuclides following the flooding of heavily contaminated areas: the case of Pripyat River floodplain.

The performances of models are assessed to predict the wash-off of radionuclides from contaminated flooded areas. This process should be accounted for in the proper management of the aftermath of a nuclear accident. The contamination of the Pripyat River water following the inundation of a floodplain heavily contaminated by (90)Sr and (137)Cs of Chernobyl origin is used as the basis for modelling. The available experimental evidence demonstrated that remobilisation of radiostrontium is an important process implying a significant secondary radioactive load of water flowing over the contaminated floodplain. On the contrary, there is no empirical evidence of a similar behaviour for radiocaesium. In general, state-of-the-art models properly predicted the remobilisation of strontium, whereas they significantly overestimated radiocaesium concentrations in water. The necessary model improvements for a more accurate prediction of radiocaesium contamination levels include a reassessment of the values of the model parameters controlling the remobilisation process.

Modelling the long-term behaviour of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in two Italian lakes.

The present paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art model to two lakes in central Italy (Trasimeno and Monterosi) for the assessment of migration parameters of (137)Cs and (90)Sr (migration velocity to sediment, transfer rates from sediment to water and to bottom sediment). Applications of a compartment model and a model based on the diffusion equation to predict the behaviour of pollutants in water and through bottom sediment are presented and discussed. The application of the diffusion equation shows some difficulties of a general nature and typical of such a modelling approach. Moreover, there is no evidence of significant improvements of the model performances when the diffusion equation is applied. Very low levels of sedimentation rate of suspended matter in Lake Monterosi were evaluated by the quantitative assessment of radiocaesium migrating to bottom sediment. This suggests that, in this lake, the removal of radionuclide from the water column is mainly due to the turbulent mixing of bottom sediment causing radionuclide burial.

Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers.

The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed.

Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides from catchments.

The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides from catchments to water bodies. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. A retrospective analysis of the principles underpinning the model development in relation to experimental finding and results was carried out. It was demonstrated that most of the various conceptual approaches of different modellers can be integrated in a general, harmonised perspective supported by a variety of experimental evidences. Shortcomings and advantages of the models were discussed.

Global analysis of the riverine transport of 90Sr and 37Cs.

Atmospheric nuclear weapons explosions and large-scale nuclear accidents may contaminate large areas of land with the long-lived radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr. The mobility and bioavailability of these radionuclides in the environment is dependent primarily on soil characteristics and changes significantly over time after fallout (1-4). Radioisotope concentrations in different rivers and at different times after fallout vary over 2-3 orders of magnitude. Many previous studies have concentrated on the interactions of radiocesium and radiostrontium with various environmental components, but there are currently no operative models fortheirtransport over large spatial areas. We collected time-series measurements of 90Sr and 137Cs in 25 major European and Asian rivers and (using digital data sets with global coverage) determined characteristics of each of the rivers' catchments. This work has established, for the first time, a quantitative link between riverine transport of these radioisotopes and catchment and soil characteristics at a global scale. A generalized predictive model accounting for time changes in river concentrations and variation in catchment characteristics is developed. This can be used to predict the long-term riverine transport of these radiologically important radionuclides following any large-scale nuclear incident in North America, Europe, or (European and Asian) Russia.

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes.

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.

Quantitative assessment of the long term behaviour of 90Sr in Lake Uruskul, Southern Urals, Russia.

The present paper is aimed at assessing the long term behaviour of 90Sr migration from water to bottom sediments of Lake Uruskul, Southern Urals, Russia. The lake was contaminated following the nuclear accident at the Mayak nuclear complex in 1957 (the Kyshtym accident). Some transfer parameters relevant to the behaviour of 90Sr in the water-sediment system were evaluated: a) the radionuclide migration velocity from the water column to the bottom sediment, b) the radionuclide migration rate from bottom sediment to water, and c) the radionuclide migration rate from bottom sediment to deep sediment. The estimated values of the above parameters were 6.4 x 10(-1) m s(-1), 5.7 x 10(-10) s(-1) and 5.2 x 10(-10) s(-1), respectively. These values were compared with data obtained for some Italian lakes contaminated by 90Sr after the nuclear weapons tests fallout. The relatively low radionuclide migration from water to sediment of these lakes is reflected by the values of the ratio migration velocity/migration rate from sediment to water (4 m and 12 m) that are significantly lower than the corresponding value in the Russian lake (112 m). The peculiar hydrochemical conditions of Lake Uruskul (high pH, high mineralisation, etc.) are considered to be responsible for the high radionuclide migration from water to sediment.

A general methodology for structuring models to predict the long-term migration of radionuclides from catchments.

In the present paper a generic model for predicting the long-term migration of radionuclides and heavy metals from catchments is described. The model subdivides the catchment into a number of homogeneous, infinitesimal sub-catchments and integrates the radionuclide contributions from such sub-catchments to calculate the total flux of contaminant. It relates the radionuclide behaviour to the statistical distribution of the pollutant partition coefficient on the "ensemble" of sub-catchments. The methodology was validated for 90Sr and 137Cs by using data for water contamination in some European rivers. Values of migration parameters for Pu, Tc, I and Cd isotopes were obtained.