ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is highly relevant for both service commissioning and clinical decision-making. Optimization of variables assessing multimorbidity in order to enhance chronic care management is an unmet need. To this end, we have explored the contribution of multimorbidity to predict use of healthcare resources at community level by comparing the predictive power of four different multimorbidity measures. METHODS: A population health study including all citizens ≥18 years (n = 6,102,595) living in Catalonia (ES) on 31 December 2014 was done using registry data. Primary care service utilization during 2015 was evaluated through four outcome variables: A) Frequent attendants, B) Home care users, C) Social worker users, and, D) Polypharmacy. Prediction of the four outcome variables (A to D) was carried out with and without multimorbidity assessment. We compared the contributions to model fitting of the following multimorbidity measures: i) Charlson index; ii) Number of chronic diseases; iii) Clinical Risk Groups (CRG); and iv) Adjusted Morbidity Groups (GMA). RESULTS: The discrimination of the models (AUC) increased by including multimorbidity as covariate into the models, namely: A) Frequent attendants (0.771 vs 0.853), B) Home care users (0.862 vs 0.890), C) Social worker users (0.809 vs 0.872), and, D) Polypharmacy (0.835 vs 0.912). GMA showed the highest predictive power for all outcomes except for polypharmacy where it was slightly below than CRG. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that multimorbidity assessment enhanced prediction of use of healthcare resources at community level. The Catalan population-based risk assessment tool based on GMA presented the best combination of predictive power and applicability.
Subject(s)
Health Services/statistics & numerical data , Multimorbidity , Multiple Chronic Conditions/epidemiology , Polypharmacy , Primary Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Social Work/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Female , Home Care Services , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Registries , Risk Factors , Spain/epidemiologyABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries. DESIGN: Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. SUBJECTS: Population randomly selected participants aged 35-64 y. MEASUREMENTS: BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. RESULTS: Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R2) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect. CONCLUSION: Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.
Subject(s)
Energy Intake , Food Supply/statistics & numerical data , Obesity/epidemiology , Adult , Anthropometry , Body Mass Index , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , International Cooperation , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , World Health OrganizationABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis and to analyze the utilization of health services, in coughers seeking care at primary care centers, within areas of "severe" and "very severe" poverty, in the Border Region of Chiapas, Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In 1997 an active case finding of patients with cough was carried out among all patients aged over 14 years seeking consultation (n = 2.203) in a random sample of seven primary care centers; 573 coughers were found. RESULTS: A rate of 11.1 positive pulmonary tuberculosis per hundred patients was found (95% CI = 6.6-17.2). The factors associated with positive pulmonary tuberculosis were size and poverty level of the locality of residence. Fifty-six percent of the coughers sought care for non-respiratory symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: It is necessary to improve detection and control of pulmonary tuberculosis at the primary care centers, as well as to develop a health education campaign among the general population, with the aim of increasing the demands for care among coughers and reduce the time elapsed between onset of cough and first medical care.
Subject(s)
Health Services/statistics & numerical data , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/prevention & control , Adult , Cough/etiology , Female , Humans , Male , Mexico/epidemiology , Poverty , Socioeconomic Factors , Time Factors , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/diagnosis , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de tuberculosis pulmonar, analizar factores asociados a su positividad y analizar el uso de servicios de salud en tosedores usuarios del primer nivel de atención en zonas de alta y muy alta marginación de la Región Fronteriza de Chiapas, México. Métodos: En 1997 se realizó una búsqueda activa de tosedores (n = 573), entre usuarios (n = 2.203) de una muestra aleatoria de siete unidades del primer nivel de atención, a los que se les solicitaron tres muestras de esputo para la realización de baciloscopías y cultivos. Resultados: Se encontró una tasa de positividad a tuberculosis pulmonar de 11,1 por 100 pacientes estudiados (IC 95 por ciento = 6,6-17,2). La positividad a tuberculosis pulmonar se mostró asociada al tamaño y grado de marginación de la localidad de residencia. El 56 por ciento de los tosedores acudió a consulta por síntomas no respiratorios. Conclusiones: Es necesario reforzar la detección y control de la tuberculosis pulmonar en el primer nivel de atención, así como sensibilizar y brindar educación para la salud a la población en general, con el fin de aumentar la demanda de atención a causa de la tos y reducir el tiempo entre el inicio de la tos y la búsqueda de atención (AU)
