Increasing peak intensity of tropical cyclones passing through the Korean Peninsula.

An increasing trend along with an abrupt increase in the peak intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) passing through the Korean Peninsula (KP) are significantly detected from 1981 to 2020 and since 2003, respectively. Here we present observational evidence that such trend and shift are largely attributed with the increased passages of intense TCs in the KP during the mature boreal autumn (i.e., September-October, SO) and linked with the recent shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to its negative phase. A negative PDO during SO is related to environmental changes that are favorable for more intense TC passages in the KP including a weakened East Asian subtropical jet stream, weaker vertical wind shear, warmer subtropical sea surface temperature, and stronger low-level relative vorticity. Such findings are expected to provide new insights on understanding regional TC variability and ultimately, contribute to long range TC prediction initiatives in the KP region.

Intense atmospheric frontogenesis by air-sea coupling processes during the passage of Typhoon Lingling captured at Ieodo Ocean Research Station.

The Ieodo Ocean Research Station (Ieodo ORS) is a fixed marine observation platform at the boundary of the Yellow and East China Seas. In 2019, a Category 4 Typhoon Lingling passed by the Ieodo ORS very closely. At that time, the Ieodo ORS observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling of 4.5 °C by vertical mixing and negative turbulent heat flux (i.e., the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes) due to the SST cooling. In this study, uncoupled and coupled simulations were conducted to examine the role of air-sea interactions in changes in atmospheric frontogenesis around the typhoon passage. In the coupled simulation, SST cooling up to 6 °C occurred over the dangerous semicircle due to vertical mixing induced by wind stress. Strong wind stress also enhanced the SST gradient and, therefore, contributed to the formation of a steeper atmospheric frontal zone. Moreover, the comparison with reliable datasets supports the physical linkage between SST cooling and atmospheric frontogenesis by utilizing the meridional theta-e gradient and moisture convergence zone. Therefore, from the simulation results, we hope to improve our understanding of atmospheric frontogenesis by air-sea coupling processes in the future development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system.

Characterizing the highest tropical cyclone frequency in the Western North Pacific since 1984.

The 2018 boreal summer in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is highlighted by 17 tropical cyclones (TC)-the highest record during the reported reliable years of TC observations. We contribute to the existing knowledge pool on this extreme TC frequency record by showing that the simultaneous highest recorded intensity of the WNP summer monsoon prompted the eastward extension of the monsoon trough and enhancement of tropical convective activities, which are both favorable for TC development. Such changes in the WNP summer monsoon environment led to the extreme TC frequency record during the 2018 boreal summer. Meanwhile, the highest record in TC frequency and the intensity of the WNP summer monsoon are both attributed with the combined increase in the anomalous westerlies originating from the cold tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies drawn towards the convective heat source that is associated with the warm central Pacific SST anomalies. Our results provide additional insights in characterizing above normal tropical cyclone and summer monsoon activities in the WNP in understanding seasonal predictable horizons in the WNP, and in support of disaster risk and impact reduction.

Recent increase in the occurrences of Christmas typhoons in the Western North Pacific.

To imply the gravity of their impact on Christmas celebration, the term Christmas typhoon recently became more popular to refer to tropical cyclones (TC) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during its less active season. The past 9 years from 2012 to 2020 saw more than 70% (210%) increases in Christmas typhoon occurrences in the WNP (Philippines). Furthermore, Mindanao Island, which is located in southern Philippines, has experienced an unprecedented 480% increase in TC passage in the same period. Here we show that the detected recent increase in Christmas typhoons are mainly associated with the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to its positive phase in early 2010s, which led to favorable changes in the large-scale environment for TC development such as higher relative vorticity, anomalous low-level westerlies, warmer sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, and extended WNP subtropical high. We also found that the poleward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and possibly, the recent recovery of the Siberian High contributed to such increased occurrences. As opposed to the more active TC season, there is a wide research gap during the less active season. We aim to fill in this knowledge gap to gain better insights on TC risk reduction.

Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed.

Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951-2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.