ABSTRACT
Background Our aim was to calibrate and externally revalidate the ELAN-HF (European Collaboration on Acute Decompensated Heart Failure) score, to confirm and improve on a previous external validation of the risk score. Methods and Results The ELAN-HF score predicts 6-month all-cause mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure using absolute and percentage change of NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels in addition to clinical variables. For the external validation, we used the PRIMA II (Can NT-proBNP-Guided Therapy During Hospital Admission for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Reduce Mortality and Readmissions?) trial. For both data sets, observed versus predicted mortality was compared for the 4 risk categories; and the mean predicted mortality was plotted against the observed mortality with calculation of a correlation coefficient and SEE. The model discriminant ability was determined by comparing the C-statistics for both data sets. The predicted versus actual 6-month mortality values in the derivation cohort were 3.7% versus 3.6% for the low-risk category, 9.4% versus 9.2% for the intermediate-risk category, 24.2% versus 23.5% for the high-risk category, and 54.2% versus 51.1% for the very-high-risk category. The correlation between predicted and observed mortality by deciles was 0.92, with an SEE of ±4%. In the validation cohort, predicted versus actual 6-month mortality values were 3.0% versus 2.2% for the low-risk category, 9.4% versus 8.2% for the intermediate-risk category, 25.0% versus 22.9% for the high-risk category, and 56.8% versus 53.6% for the very-high-risk category. The correlation between predicted and actual mortality by quintiles was 0.99, with an SEE of ±2%. There was no significant difference in C-statistic between the derivation cohort (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and the validation cohort (0.77; 95% CI, 0.69-0.84; P=0.693). Conclusions Our study confirms that the ELAN-HF score predicts accurately 6-month mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure with the use of easily obtained characteristics.
Subject(s)
Edema/physiopathology , Heart Failure/therapy , Hyponatremia/blood , Mortality , Natriuretic Peptide, Brain/blood , Peptide Fragments/blood , Urea/blood , Acute Disease , Age Factors , Aged , Blood Pressure , Cause of Death , Female , Heart Failure/blood , Heart Failure/physiopathology , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Reproducibility of Results , Risk Assessment , Severity of Illness IndexABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hospital admissions for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are frequent and are accompanied by high percentages of mortality and readmissions. Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the inactive N-terminal fragment of its precursor proBNP (NT-proBNP) are currently the best predictors of prognosis in heart failure (HF) patients. In the setting of chronic HF, studies that performed guidance of therapy by NT-proBNP have had only limited success. For patients with ADHF, retrospective studies have shown that a reduction in NT-proBNP of ≤30% during admission is a significant predictor of HF readmissions and mortality. These data suggest a role for NT-proBNP guidance in the setting of ADHF admissions. STUDY DESIGN: The PRIMA II is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, randomized, controlled, prospective 2-arm trial that investigates the impact of inhospital guidance for ADHF treatment by a predefined NT-proBNP target (>30% reduction during admission) on the reduction of readmission and mortality rates within 180 days. Consenting ADHF patients with NT-proBNP levels of >1,700 ng/L are eligible. After achieving clinical stability, a total of 340 patients are randomized to either NT-proBNP-guided or conventional treatment (1:1). The primary end point is dual, that is, a composite of all-cause mortality and readmission for HF in 180 days and the number of days alive out of hospital in 180 days. Secondary end points are readmissions and/or mortality in 180 days, cost effectiveness of hospitalization days in 180 days, readmissions and mortality in 90 days, and quality of life. CONCLUSION: The PRIMA II trial aims at providing scientific evidence for the use of NT-proBNP-guided therapy compared with conventional treatment in patients admitted for ADHF.
