Development of a clinical prediction tool for extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit.

Introduction/objective: Extubation failure in pediatric patients with congenital or acquired heart diseases increases morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop a clinical risk score for predicting extubation failure to guide proper clinical decision-making and management. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study. This clinical prediction score was developed using data from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, from July 2016 to May 2022. Extubation failure was defined as the requirement for re-intubation within 48 h after extubation. Multivariable logistic regression was used for modeling. The score was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results: A total of 352 extubation events from 270 patients were documented. Among these, 40 events (11.36%) were extubation failure. Factors associated with extubation failure included history of pneumonia (OR: 4.14, 95% CI: 1.83-9.37, p = 0.001), history of re-intubation (OR: 5.99, 95% CI: 2.12-16.98, p = 0.001), and high saturation in physiologic cyanosis (OR: 5.94, 95% CI: 1.87-18.84, p = 0.003). These three factors were utilized to develop the risk score. The score showed acceptable discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86), and good calibration. Conclusion: The derived Pediatric CMU Extubation Failure Prediction Score (Ped-CMU ExFPS) could satisfactorily predict extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients. Employing this score could promote proper personalized care. We suggest conducting further external validation studies before considering implementation in practice.

Predictive factors of extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit: A single-center retrospective study from Thailand.

Introduction/objective: Extubation failure increases morbidity and mortality in pediatric cardiac patients, a unique population including those with congenital heart disease or acquired heart disease. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive factors of extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients and to determine the association between extubation failure and clinical outcomes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study in the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand, from July 2016 to June 2021. Extubation failure was defined as the re-insertion of the endotracheal tube within 48 hours after extubation. Multivariable log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations (GEE) was performed to explore the predictive factors associated with extubation failure. Results: We collected 318 extubation events from 246 patients. Of these, 35 (11%) events were extubation failures. In physiologic cyanosis, the extubation failure group had significantly higher SpO2 than the extubation success group (P < 0.001). The predictive factors associated with extubation failure included a history of pneumonia before extubation (RR 3.09, 95% CI 1.54-6.23, P = 0.002), stridor after extubation (RR 2.57, 95% CI 1.44-4.56, P = 0.001), history of re-intubation (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.21-4.12, P = 0.009), and palliative surgery (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.02-3.43, P = 0.043). Conclusion: Extubation failure was identified in 11% of extubation attempts in pediatric cardiac patients. The extubation failure was associated with a longer duration of PCICU stay but not with mortality. Patients with a history of pneumonia before extubation, history of re-intubation, post-operative palliative surgery, and post-extubation stridor should receive careful consideration before extubation and close monitoring afterward. Additionally, patients with physiologic cyanosis may require balanced circulation via regulated SpO2.