ABSTRACT
Mark-recapture surveys are commonly used to monitor translocated populations globally. Data gathered are then used to estimate demographic parameters, such as abundance and survival, using Jolly-Seber (JS) models. However, in translocated populations initial population size is known and failure to account for this may bias parameter estimates, which are important for informing conservation decisions during population establishment. Here, we provide methods to account for known initial population size in JS models by incorporating a separate component likelihood for translocated individuals, using a maximum-likelihood estimation, with models that can be fitted using either R or MATLAB. We use simulated data and a case study of a threatened lizard species with low capture probability to demonstrate that unconstrained JS models may overestimate the size of translocated populations, especially in the early stages of post-release monitoring. Our approach corrects this bias; we use our simulations to demonstrate that overestimates of population size between 78% and 130% can occur in the unconstrained JS models when the detection probability is below 0.3 compared to 1%-8.9% for our constrained model. Our case study did not show an overestimate; however accounting for the initial population size greatly reduced error in all parameter estimates and prevented boundary estimates. Adopting the corrected JS model for translocations will help managers to obtain more robust estimates of the population sizes of translocated animals, better informing future management including reinforcement decisions, and ultimately improving translocation success.
Subject(s)
Endangered Species , Animals , Population Density , ProbabilityABSTRACT
Introduced species can exert disproportionately negative effects on island ecosystems, but their potential role as food for native consumers is poorly studied. Telfair's skinks are endemic omnivores living on Round Island, Mauritius, a globally significant site of biodiversity conservation. We aimed to determine the dietary diversity and key trophic interactions of Telfair's skinks, whether introduced species are frequently consumed, and if diet composition changes seasonally between male and female skinks. We used DNA metabarcoding of skink fecal samples to identify animals (COI) and plants (ITS2) consumed by skinks. There were 389 dietary presence counts belonging to 77 dietary taxa found across the 73 Telfair's skink fecal samples. Introduced taxa were cumulatively consumed more frequently than other categories, accounting for 49.4% of all detections, compared to cryptogenic (20.6%), native (20.6%), and endemic taxa (9.5%). The most frequently consumed introduced species was the ant, Pheidole megacephala, present in 40% of samples. Blue latan palm, Latania loddigesii, was the most frequently consumed endemic species, present in 33% of samples but was only detected in the dry season, when fruits are produced. We found a strong seasonal difference in diet composition explained by the presence of certain plant species solely or primarily in one season and a marked increase in the consumption of animal prey in the dry season. Male and female skinks consumed several taxa at different frequencies. These results present a valuable perspective on the role of introduced species in the trophic network of their invaded ecosystem. Both native and introduced species provide nutritional resources for skinks, and this may have management implications in the context of species conservation and island restoration.
