A re-appraisal of the ENSO response to volcanism with paleoclimate data assimilation.

The potential for explosive volcanism to affect the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been debated since the 1980s. Several observational studies, based largely on tree-ring proxies, have since found support for a positive ENSO phase in the year following large eruptions. In contrast, recent coral data from the heart of the tropical Pacific suggest no uniform ENSO response to explosive volcanism over the last millennium. Here we leverage paleoclimate data assimilation to integrate both tree-ring and coral proxies into a reconstruction of ENSO state, and re-appraise this relationship. We find only a weak statistical association between volcanism and ENSO, and identify the selection of volcanic events as a key variable to the conclusion. We discuss the difficulties of conclusively establishing a volcanic influence on ENSO by empirical means, given the myriad factors affecting the response, including the spatiotemporal details of the forcing and ENSO phase preconditioning.

Different climate sensitivity for radial growth, but uniform for tree-ring stable isotopes along an aridity gradient in Polylepis tarapacana, the world's highest elevation tree species.

Tree growth is generally considered to be temperature limited at upper elevation treelines, yet climate factors controlling tree growth at semiarid treelines are poorly understood. We explored the influence of climate on stem growth and stable isotopes for Polylepis tarapacana Philipi, the world's highest elevation tree species, which is found only in the South American Altiplano. We developed tree-ring width index (RWI), oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) chronologies for the last 60 years at four P. tarapacana stands located above 4400 m in elevation, along a 500 km latitude aridity gradient. Total annual precipitation decreased from 300 to 200 mm from the northern to the southern sites. We used RWI as a proxy of wood formation (carbon sink) and isotopic tree-ring signatures as proxies of leaf-level gas exchange processes (carbon source). We found distinct climatic conditions regulating carbon sink processes along the gradient. Current growing-season temperature regulated RWI at northern-wetter sites, while prior growing-season precipitation determined RWI at arid southern sites. This suggests that the relative importance of temperature to precipitation in regulating tree growth is driven by site water availability. By contrast, warm and dry growing seasons resulted in enriched tree-ring δ13C and δ18O at all study sites, suggesting that similar climate conditions control carbon-source processes along the gradient. Site-level δ13C and δ18O chronologies were significantly and positively related at all sites, with the strongest relationships among the southern drier stands. This indicates an overall regulation of intercellular carbon dioxide via stomatal conductance for the entire P. tarapacana network, with greater stomatal control when aridity increases. This manuscript also highlights a coupling (decoupling) between physiological processes at leaf level and wood formation as a function of similarities (differences) in their climatic sensitivity. This study contributes to a better understanding and prediction of the response of high-elevation Polylepis woodlands to rapid climate changes and projected drying in the Altiplano.

Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century.

South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Influence of precipitation pulses on long-term Prosopis ferox dynamics in the Argentinean intermontane subtropics.

Biological processes in arid communities are associated with episodic precipitation pulses. We postulate that annual to decadal-scale precipitation pulses modulate the dynamics of the intermontane Prepuna woodlands. To study this hypothesis, we have assessed the influence of precipitation pulses on the rates of growth and survival of Prosopis ferox in the Prepuna woodlands during the past century. Tree ages from several P. ferox stands were used to reconstruct the establishment patterns at each sampling site. Ring-width chronologies provided the basis to assess the influence of annual versus multiannual precipitation pulses on radial growth and establishment over time. Both the radial growth and the stand dynamics of P. ferox at the regional scale were found to be largely modulated by climate, with precipitation the dominant factor influencing interannual variations in P. ferox ring-widths. Our analysis of dendrochronological dating data on 885 individuals of P. ferox revealed a period of abundant establishment from the mid-1970s to beginning of 1990 s, which is coincident with an interval of remarkable above-average precipitation. However, tree-growth and establishment patterns at the local scale in the Prepuna also reflected land-use changes, particularly long-term variations in livestock intensity. The P. ferox dynamics documented here substantiates the hierarchical concept of "resource-pulse" in dry ecosystems, with precipitation pulses of different lengths modulating distinct dynamic processes in the P. ferox woodlands. Interannual variations in precipitation influence year-to-year patterns of P. ferox radial growth, whereas multiannual oscillations in rainfall influence episodic events of tree establishment. The long-term interval considered in this study enabled us to disentangle the roles of natural versus human controls on P. ferox dynamics in the region.