Isolating the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on urban air quality in Canada.

We have investigated the impact of reduced emissions due to COVID-19 lockdown measures in spring 2020 on air quality in Canada's four largest cities: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary. Observed daily concentrations of NO2, PM2.5, and O3 during a "pre-lockdown" period (15 February-14 March 2020) and a "lockdown" period (22 March-2 May 2020), when lockdown measures were in full force everywhere in Canada, were compared to the same periods in the previous decade (2010-2019). Higher-than-usual seasonal declines in mean daily NO2 were observed for the pre-lockdown to lockdown periods in 2020. For PM2.5, Montreal was the only city with a higher-than-usual seasonal decline, whereas for O3 all four cities remained within the previous decadal range. In order to isolate the impact of lockdown-related emission changes from other factors such as seasonal changes in meteorology and emissions and meteorological variability, two emission scenarios were performed with the GEM-MACH air quality model. The first was a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario with baseline emissions and the second was a more realistic simulation with estimated COVID-19 lockdown emissions. NO2 surface concentrations for the COVID-19 emission scenario decreased by 31 to 34% on average relative to the BAU scenario in the four metropolitan areas. Lower decreases ranging from 6 to 17% were predicted for PM2.5. O3 surface concentrations, on the other hand, showed increases up to a maximum of 21% close to city centers versus slight decreases over the suburbs, but Ox (odd oxygen), like NO2 and PM2.5, decreased as expected over these cities. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-021-01039-1.

Eight-Year Estimates of Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Western Canada Are Nearly Twice Those Reported in Inventories.

The provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan account for 70% of Canada's methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. In 2018, the Government of Canada introduced methane regulations to reduce emissions from the sector by 40-45% from the 2012 levels by 2025. Complementary to inventory accounting methods, the effectiveness of regulatory practices to reduce emissions can be assessed using atmospheric measurements and inverse models. Total anthropogenic (oil and gas, agriculture, and waste) emission rates of methane from 2010 to 2017 in Alberta and Saskatchewan were derived using hourly atmospheric methane measurements over a six-month winter period from October to March. Scaling up the winter estimate to annual indicated an anthropogenic emission rate of 3.7 ± 0.7 MtCH4/year, about 60% greater than that reported in Canada's National Inventory Report (2.3 MtCH4). This discrepancy is tied primarily to the oil and gas sector emissions as the reported emissions from livestock operations (0.6 MtCH4) are well substantiated in both top-down and bottom-up estimates and waste management (0.1 MtCH4) emissions are small. The resulting estimate of 3.0 MtCH4 from the oil and gas sector is nearly twice that reported in Canada's National Inventory (1.6 MtCH4).

Expansion of a size disaggregation profile library for particulate matter emissions processing from three generic profiles to 36 source-type-specific profiles.

This study describes a significant upgrade to the particulate matter (PM) size disaggregation profile library used for preparing emissions files for the GEM-MACH (Global Environmental Multiscale-Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry) chemical transport model (CTM). This model uses a sectional (bin) approach to represent the PM size distribution, where one configuration employs 12 size bins to disaggregate PM2.5 and PM10 inventory emissions into the first 10 bins ranging from 0.01 to 10.24 µm in diameter. For the size disaggregation step, a small library of three generic PM size disaggregation profiles is currently applied for three broad source categories (area, mobile, and point). However, as might be expected, these generic profiles are not always representative: for example, emissions from two very different area sources ‒ paved road dust and residential wood combustion ‒ are disaggregated using the same generic size distribution profile. In order to improve the current small PM size disaggregation profile library, a comprehensive literature review was conducted: over 100 relevant publications were identified and PM size distribution profiles for 36 different emission source types were selected and compiled. These 36 source-type-specific PM size distribution profiles were then combined based on process type with corresponding PM speciation profiles to create a library of chemically speciated and size-resolved PM disaggregation profiles. This library can now be used by the SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions) emissions processing system for the 12-bin version of GEM-MACH to perform PM chemical speciation and size allocation in one step. The size-profile data collected and compiled in this study may also be used for emissions processing for other CTMs with a size-resolved representation of PM. Details of the compilation of the 36 PM size disaggregation profiles are discussed, and the differences in processed PM emissions based on the current and updated PM size disaggregation profile libraries are shown. Implications: A new and expanded particulate matter (PM) size disaggregation profile library covering 36 emission source types has been developed based on an extensive literature review. Its use can produce significant changes in the size allocation of bulk PM inventory emissions processed for input to size-resolved PM chemical transport models. Such models are used to predict atmospheric visibility and to simulate the interactions of aerosol particles with atmospheric radiation and with clouds. The use of more accurate, size-resolved primary PM emissions by these models should improve their predictive skill for atmospheric PM processes affecting air quality, meteorology, and climate.

Differences between measured and reported volatile organic compound emissions from oil sands facilities in Alberta, Canada.

Large-scale oil production from oil sands deposits in Alberta, Canada has raised concerns about environmental impacts, such as the magnitude of air pollution emissions. This paper reports compound emission rates (E) for 69-89 nonbiogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for each of four surface mining facilities, determined with a top-down approach using aircraft measurements in the summer of 2013. The aggregate emission rate (aE) of the nonbiogenic VOCs ranged from 50 ± 14 to 70 ± 22 t/d depending on the facility. In comparison, equivalent VOC emission rates reported to the Canadian National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) using accepted estimation methods were lower than the aE values by factors of 2.0 ± 0.6, 3.1 ± 1.1, 4.5 ± 1.5, and 4.1 ± 1.6 for the four facilities, indicating underestimation in the reported VOC emissions. For 11 of the combined 93 VOC species reported by all four facilities, the reported emission rate and E were similar; but for the other 82 species, the reported emission rate was lower than E The median ratio of E to that reported for all species by a facility ranged from 4.5 to 375 depending on the facility. Moreover, between 9 and 53 VOCs, for which there are existing reporting requirements to the NPRI, were not included in the facility emission reports. The comparisons between the emission reports and measurement-based emission rates indicate that improvements to VOC emission estimation methods would enhance the accuracy and completeness of emission estimates and their applicability to environmental impact assessments of oil sands developments.

The FireWork air quality forecast system with near-real-time biomass burning emissions: Recent developments and evaluation of performance for the 2015 North American wildfire season.

UNLABELLED: Environment and Climate Change Canada's FireWork air quality (AQ) forecast system for North America with near-real-time biomass burning emissions has been running experimentally during the Canadian wildfire season since 2013. The system runs twice per day with model initializations at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, and produces numerical AQ forecast guidance with 48-hr lead time. In this work we describe the FireWork system, which incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) as an input to the operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS). To demonstrate the capability of the system we analyzed two forecast periods in 2015 (June 2-July 15, and August 15-31) when fire activity was high, and observed fire-smoke-impacted areas in western Canada and the western United States. Modeled PM2.5 surface concentrations were compared with surface measurements and benchmarked with results from the operational RAQDPS, which did not consider near-real-time biomass burning emissions. Model performance statistics showed that FireWork outperformed RAQDPS with improvements in forecast hourly PM2.5 across the region; the results were especially significant for stations near the path of fire plume trajectories. Although the hourly PM2.5 concentrations predicted by FireWork still displayed bias for areas with active fires for these two periods (mean bias [MB] of -7.3 µg m(-3) and 3.1 µg m(-3)), it showed better forecast skill than the RAQDPS (MB of -11.7 µg m(-3) and -5.8 µg m(-3)) and demonstrated a greater ability to capture temporal variability of episodic PM2.5 events (correlation coefficient values of 0.50 and 0.69 for FireWork compared to 0.03 and 0.11 for RAQDPS). A categorical forecast comparison based on an hourly PM2.5 threshold of 30 µg m(-3) also showed improved scores for probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI), and false alarm rate (FAR). IMPLICATIONS: Smoke from wildfires can have a large impact on regional air quality (AQ) and can expose populations to elevated pollution levels. Environment and Climate Change Canada has been producing operational air quality forecasts for all of Canada since 2009 and is now working to include near-real-time wildfire emissions (NRTWE) in its operational AQ forecasting system. An experimental forecast system named FireWork, which includes NRTWE, has been undergoing testing and evaluation since 2013. A performance analysis of FireWork forecasts for the 2015 wildfire season shows that FireWork provides significant improvements to surface PM2.5 forecasts and valuable guidance to regional forecasters and first responders.

Air pollution and public health: a guidance document for risk managers.

This guidance document is a reference for air quality policymakers and managers providing state-of-the-art, evidence-based information on key determinants of air quality management decisions. The document reflects the findings of five annual meetings of the NERAM (Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management) International Colloquium Series on Air Quality Management (2001-2006), as well as the results of supporting international research. The topics covered in the guidance document reflect critical science and policy aspects of air quality risk management including i) health effects, ii) air quality emissions, measurement and modeling, iii) air quality management interventions, and iv) clean air policy challenges and opportunities.

Clinical outcomes of catheter substrate ablation for high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to determine the long-term clinical outcomes of catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) substrate for high-risk patients with AF. BACKGROUND: The benefits of catheter ablation for high-risk AF patients with respect to mortality and stroke reductions remain unclear. METHODS: We performed AF substrate ablation guided by complex fractionated atrial electrogram (CFAE) mapping in 674 high-risk AF patients. The clinical end points were sinus rhythm (SR), death, stroke, or bleeding. Of these 674 patients, 635 were available for follow-up and made up the study cohort. The patients were relatively old (mean age 67 +/- 12 years) and 129 had an ejection fraction (EF) <40%. RESULTS: After the mean follow-up period of 836 +/- 605 days, 517 were in SR (81.4%). There were 15 deaths among the patients who stayed in SR compared with 14 deaths among those who remained in AF (5-year survival rate, 92% vs. 64%, respectively; p < 0.0001). SR was the most important independent favorable parameter for survival (hazard ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.06 to 0.36, p < 0.0001), whereas old age was unfavorable. Warfarin therapy was discontinued in 434 of the 517 patients in SR post-ablation (84%) whose annual stroke rate was only 0.4% compared with 2% in those with continuing warfarin treatment (p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: CFAE-targeted ablation of AF is effective in maintaining SR in selected high-risk AF patients and might allow patients to stop warfarin therapy. SR after AF ablation is a marker of relatively low mortality and stroke risk. Our findings support conducting further randomized studies to determine whether AF ablation is associated with mortality and/or stroke reduction.