The Potential Impacts of Urban and Transit Planning Scenarios for 2031 on Car Use and Active Transportation in a Metropolitan Area.

Land use and transportation scenarios can help evaluate the potential impacts of urban compact or transit-oriented development (TOD). Future scenarios have been based on hypothetical developments or strategic planning but both have rarely been compared. We developed scenarios for an entire metropolitan area (Montreal, Canada) based on current strategic planning documents and contrasted their potential impacts on car use and active transportation with those of hypothetical scenarios. We collected and analyzed available urban planning documents and obtained key stakeholders' appreciation of transportation projects on their likelihood of implementation. We allocated 2006-2031 population growth according to recent trends (Business As Usual, BAU) or alternative scenarios (current planning; all in TOD areas; all in central zone). A large-scale and representative Origin-Destination Household Travel Survey was used to measure travel behavior. To estimate distances travelled by mode, in 2031, we used a mode choice model and a simpler method based on the 2008 modal share across population strata. Compared to the BAU, the scenario that allocated all the new population in already dense areas and that also included numerous public transit projects (unlikely to be implemented in 2031), was associated with greatest impacts. Nonetheless such major changes had relatively minor impacts, inducing at most a 15% reduction in distances travel by car and a 28% increase in distances walked, compared to a BAU. Strategies that directly target the reduction of car use, not considered in the scenarios assessed, may be necessary to induce substantial changes in a metropolitan area.

Environmental and health impacts of transportation and land use scenarios in 2061.

We compared numbers of trips and distances by transport mode, air pollution and health impacts of a Business As Usual (BAU) and an Ideal scenario with urban densification and reductions in car share (76%-62% in suburbs; 55%-34% in urban areas) for the Greater Montreal (Canada) for 2061. We estimated the population in 87 municipalities using a demographic model and population projections. Year 2031 (Y2031) trips (from mode choice modeling) and distances were used to estimate those of Y2061. Emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were estimated and NO2 used with dispersion modeling to estimate concentrations. Walking and Public Transit (PT) use and corresponding distances walked in Y2061 were >70% higher for the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, while car share and distances were <40% lower. NO2 levels were slightly lower in the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, but always higher in the urban core. Health impacts, summarized with disability adjusted life years (DALY), differed between urban and suburb areas but globally, the Ideal scenario reduced the impacts of the Y2061 BAU by 33% DALY. Percentages of car and PT trips were similar for the Y2031 and Y2061 BAU but kms travelled by car, CO2 and NO2 increased, due to increased populations. Drastic measures to decrease car share appear necessary to substantially reduce impacts of transportation.

Reassessing Urban Health Interventions: Back to the Future with Google Street View Time Machine.

INTRODUCTION: Validity of research linking built environments to health relies on the availability and reliability of data used to measure exposures. As cities transform, it is important to track when and where urban changes occur, to provide detailed information for urban health intervention research. This paper presents an online observation method of the implementation of traffic-calmingfeatures using Google Street View Time Machine. The method is used to validate an existingadministrative database detailing the implementation of curb extensions and speed bumps. METHODS: Online observation of curb extensions and speed bumps was conducted for four boroughsin Montreal, Canada, in autumn 2016, and compared with administrative data documenting traffic-calming measures implemented between 2008 and 2014. All images available through the Time Machine function between 2007 and 2016 for 708 intervention sites were visualized online. Records in the administrative database were compared to real-world Google Street View observations and tested in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and positive predicted value. RESULTS: Google Street View Time Machine allowed the visualization of a median of seven different dates per street intersection and six dates per street segment. This made it possible to analyze built environment changes within 3,973 distinct time periods at 708 locations. Validation of the administrative data regarding presence of an intervention showed 99% (95% CI=97%, 99%) sensitivity, 58% (95% CI=51%, 64%) specificity, and 77% (95% CI=73%, 81%) positive predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Google Street View Time Machine allowed past (2007-2016) online documentation of microscale urban interventions-curb extensions and speed bumps. The proposed method offers a new way to document historic changes to the built environment, which will be useful for urban health intervention research.

Traveling by Bus Instead of Car on Urban Major Roads: Safety Benefits for Vehicle Occupants, Pedestrians, and Cyclists.

Some studies have estimated fatality and injury rates for bus occupants, but data was aggregated at the country level and made no distinction between bus types. Also, injured pedestrians and cyclists, as a result of bus travel, were overlooked. We compared injury rates for car and city bus occupants on specific urban major roads, as well as the cyclist and pedestrian injuries associated with car and bus travel. We selected ten bus routes along major urban arterials (in Montreal, Canada). Passenger-kilometers traveled were estimated from vehicle counts at intersections (2002-2010) and from bus passenger counts (2008). Police accident reports (2001-2010) provided injury data for all modes. Injury rates associated with car and bus travel were calculated for vehicle occupants, pedestrians, and cyclists. Injury rate ratios were also computed. The safety benefits of bus travel, defined as the number of vehicle occupant, cyclist, and pedestrian injuries saved, were estimated for each route. Overall, for all ten routes, the ratio between car and bus occupant injury rates is 3.7 (95% CI [3.4, 4.0]). The rates of pedestrian and cyclist injuries per hundred million passenger-kilometers are also significantly greater for car travel than that for bus travel: 4.1 (95% CI [3.5, 4.9]) times greater for pedestrian injuries; 5.3 (95% CI [3.8, 7.6]) times greater for cyclist injuries. Similar results were observed for fatally and severely injured vehicle occupants, cyclists, and pedestrians. At the route level, the safety benefits of bus travel increase with the difference in injury rate associated with car and bus travel but also with the amount of passenger-kilometers by bus. Results show that city bus is a safer mode than car, for vehicle occupants but also for cyclists and pedestrians traveling along these bus routes. The safety benefits of bus travel greatly vary across urban routes; this spatial variation is most likely linked to environmental factors. Understanding the safety benefits of public transit for specific transport routes is likely to provide valuable information for mobilizing city and transportation planners.

Estimating the health benefits of planned public transit investments in Montreal.

BACKGROUND: Since public transit infrastructure affects road traffic volumes and influences transportation mode choice, which in turn impacts health, it is important to estimate the alteration of the health burden linked with transit policies. OBJECTIVE: We quantified the variation in health benefits and burden between a business as usual (BAU) and a public transit (PT) scenarios in 2031 (with 8 and 19 new subway and train stations) for the greater Montreal region. METHOD: Using mode choice and traffic assignment models, we predicted the transportation mode choice and traffic assignment on the road network. Subsequently, we estimated the distance travelled in each municipality by mode, the minutes spent in active transportation, as well as traffic emissions. Thereafter we estimated the health burden attributed to air pollution and road traumas and the gains associated with active transportation for both the BAU and PT scenarios. RESULTS: We predicted a slight decrease of overall trips and kilometers travelled by car as well as an increase of active transportation for the PT in 2031 vs the BAU. Our analysis shows that new infrastructure will reduce the overall burden of transportation by 2.5 DALYs per 100,000 persons. This decrease is caused by the reduction of road traumas occurring in the inner suburbs and central Montreal region as well as gains in active transportation in the inner suburbs. CONCLUSION: Based on the results of our study, transportation planned public transit projects for Montreal are unlikely to reduce drastically the burden of disease attributable to road vehicles and infrastructures in the Montreal region. The impact of the planned transportation infrastructures seems to be very low and localized mainly in the areas where new public transit stations are planned.

Major urban road characteristics and injured pedestrians: A representative survey of intersections in Montréal, Quebec.

OBJECTIVES: In urban settings, pedestrian fatalities and injuries are concentrated on major roads. This study aims to describe urban intersections with major roads (arterials and collector roads) and explore the association between intersection characteristics and injured pedestrians. METHODS: From a stratified random sampling in Montréal, Quebec, 512 intersections were selected and their characteristics collected. The number of injured pedestrians from 1999 to 2008 was obtained from ambulance services. Binomial negative regression models (including IRR: incidence rate ratios) were calculated to determine associations between intersection characteristics and injured pedestrians: i) at all intersections; ii) at intersections with multi-lane roads and iii) at signalized intersections with available vehicle and pedestrian counts. RESULTS: Major intersections had more traffic lanes (3.8 vs. 1.7, p < 0.01) and longer pedestrian crossings (18.8 m vs. 12.7 m, p < 0.01) than minor intersections. Bus stops were also more frequent at these intersections (75% vs. 6%, p < 0.01). Overall, each additional traffic lane was associated with a 75% increase in the number of injured pedestrians (IRR = 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41-2.18). At intersections with multi-lane roads, a fourth branch (IRR = 2.40; 95% CI = 1.53-3.77), vehicles parked within 5 m of the intersection (IRR = 2.40; 95% CI = 1.64-3.51), and marked crosswalks (IRR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.08-2.95) significantly increased the number of injured pedestrians. Raised medians had no significant protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that besides traffic and pedestrian volumes, intersection characteristics contribute to pedestrian injuries. The reduction of traffic lanes, parking prohibition near intersections and implementation of appropriate pedestrian refuge areas would improve pedestrian safety.

Mapping cyclist activity and injury risk in a network combining smartphone GPS data and bicycle counts.

In recent years, the modal share of cycling has been growing in North American cities. With the increase of cycling, the need of bicycle infrastructure and road safety concerns have also raised. Bicycle flows are an essential component in safety analysis. The main objective of this work is to propose a methodology to estimate and map bicycle volumes and cyclist injury risk throughout the entire network of road segments and intersections on the island of Montreal, achieved by combining smartphone GPS traces and count data. In recent years, methods have been proposed to estimate average annual daily bicycle (AADB) volume and injury risk estimates at both the intersection and segment levels using bicycle counts. However, these works have been limited to small samples of locations for which count data is available. In this work, a methodology is proposed to combine short- and long-term bicycle counts with GPS data to estimate AADB volumes along segments and intersections in the entire network. As part of the validation process, correlation is observed between AADB values obtained from GPS data and AADB values from count data, with R-squared values of 0.7 for signalized intersections, 0.58 for non-signalized intersections and between 0.48 and 0.76 for segments with and without bicycle infrastructure. The methodology is also validated through the calibration of safety performance functions using both sources of AADB estimates, from counts and from GPS data. Using the validated AADB estimates, the factors associated with injury risk were identified using data from the entire population of intersections and segments throughout Montreal. Bayesian injury risk maps are then generated and the concentrations of expected injuries and risk at signalized intersections are identified. Signalized intersections, which are often located at the intersection of major arterials, witness 4 times more injuries and 2.5 times greater risk than non-signalized intersections. A similar observation can be made for arterials which not only have a higher concentration of injuries but also injury rates (risk). On average, streets with cycle tracks have a greater concentration of injuries due to greater bicycle volumes, however, and in accordance with recent works, the individual risk per cyclist is lower, justifying the benefits of cycle tracks.

Multimodal injury risk analysis of road users at signalized and non-signalized intersections.

This paper proposes a multimodal approach to study safety at intersections by simultaneously analysing the safety and flow outcomes for both motorized and non-motorized traffic. This study uses an extensive inventory of signalized and non-signalized intersections on the island of Montreal, Quebec, Canada, containing disaggregate motor-vehicle, cyclist and pedestrian flows, injury data, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of each intersection. Bayesian multivariate Poisson models are used to analyze the injury and traffic flow outcomes and to develop safety performance functions for each mode at both facilities. After model calibration, contributing injury frequency factors are identified. Injury frequency and injury risk measures are then generated to carry out a comparative study to identify which mode is at greatest risk at intersections in Montreal. Among other results, this study identified the significant effect that motor-vehicle traffic imposes on cyclist and pedestrian injury occurrence. Motor-vehicle traffic is the main risk determinant for all injury and intersection types. This highlights the need for safety improvements for cyclists and pedestrians who are, on average, at 14 and12 times greater risk than motorists, respectively, at signalized intersections. Aside from exposure measures, this work also identifies some geometric design and built environment characteristics affecting injury occurrence for cyclists, pedestrians and motor-vehicle occupants.

A population approach to transportation planning: reducing exposure to motor-vehicles.

Transportation planning and public health have important historical roots. To address common challenges, including road traffic fatalities, integration of theories and methods from both disciplines is required. This paper presents an overview of Geoffrey Rose's strategy of preventive medicine applied to road traffic fatalities. One of the basic principles of Rose's strategy is that a large number of people exposed to a small risk can generate more cases than a small number exposed to a high risk. Thus, interventions should address the large number of people exposed to the fundamental causes of diseases. Exposure to moving vehicles could be considered a fundamental cause of road traffic deaths and injuries. A global reduction in the amount of kilometers driven would result in a reduction of the likelihood of collisions for all road users. Public health and transportation research must critically appraise their practice and engage in informed dialogue with the objective of improving mobility and productivity while simultaneously reducing the public health burden of road deaths and injuries.

The impact of implementing a public bicycle share program on the likelihood of collisions and near misses in Montreal, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the impact of implementing a public bicycle share program (PBSP) on the likelihood of self-reported collisions and near misses between cyclists and motor vehicles among cyclists living in Montreal. METHODS: A repeated cross sectional design was used. Surveys were conducted at the launch of the PBSP, at the end of the first and second seasons of implementation. Logistic regression estimated changes in the likelihood of reporting collisions or near misses. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a change in likelihood of reporting a collision or near miss after implementing the PBSP. PBSP users were not at a greater risk of reporting a collision (OR=1.53, 95% CI: 0.77-3.02) or near miss (OR=1.37, 95% CI: 0.94-1.98), although confidence intervals were wide. The number of days of cycling per week was associated with collisions (OR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.39) and near misses (OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.26-1.42). CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a change in the likelihood of reporting collisions or near misses in Montreal between the implementation of the PBSP and the end of the second season. Time spent cycling was associated with reporting a collision or near miss.

Cyclist activity and injury risk analysis at signalized intersections: a Bayesian modelling approach.

This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modelling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes. This approach deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities and is used to identify factors associated with both cyclist injuries and volumes. Its application to identify high-risk corridors is also illustrated. Montreal, Quebec, Canada is the application environment, using an extensive inventory of a large sample of signalized intersections containing disaggregate motor-vehicle traffic volumes and bicycle flows, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Cyclist injury data for the period of 2003-2008 is used in this study. Also, manual bicycle counts were standardized using temporal and weather adjustment factors to obtain average annual daily volumes. Results confirm and quantify the effects of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence. Accordingly, more cyclists at an intersection translate into more cyclist injuries but lower injury rates due to the non-linear association between bicycle volume and injury occurrence. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements. The presence of bus stops and total crosswalk length increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections was found to increase as employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50-800 m of the intersection increase. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Using Bayesian analysis, expected injury frequency and injury rates were estimated for each intersection and used to rank corridors. Corridors with high bicycle volumes, located mainly in the central neighbourhoods of Montreal, have lower risk of injury. These results may reflect the "safety in numbers" hypothesis or cyclist preference towards safer intersections and corridors. Despite these corridors having a lower individual risk, they are nevertheless associated with a greater number of injuries.

Bicycle guidelines and crash rates on cycle tracks in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: We studied state-adopted bicycle guidelines to determine whether cycle tracks (physically separated, bicycle-exclusive paths adjacent to sidewalks) were recommended, whether they were built, and their crash rate. METHODS: We analyzed and compared US bicycle facility guidelines published between 1972 and 1999. We identified 19 cycle tracks in the United States and collected extensive data on cycle track design, usage, and crash history from local communities. We used bicycle counts and crash data to estimate crash rates. RESULTS: A bicycle facility guideline written in 1972 endorsed cycle tracks but American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) guidelines (1974-1999) discouraged or did not include cycle tracks and did not cite research about crash rates on cycle tracks. For the 19 US cycle tracks we examined, the overall crash rate was 2.3 (95% confidence interval = 1.7, 3.0) per 1 million bicycle kilometers. CONCLUSIONS: AASHTO bicycle guidelines are not explicitly based on rigorous or up-to-date research. Our results show that the risk of bicycle-vehicle crashes is lower on US cycle tracks than published crashes rates on roadways. This study and previous investigations support building cycle tracks.

The potential modal shift and health benefits of implementing a public bicycle share program in Montreal, Canada.

BACKGROUND: This study estimated the modal shift associated with the implementation of a public bicycle share program in Montreal, Canada. METHODS: A population-based sample of adults participated in two cross sectional telephone surveys. Self-reported travel behaviors were collected at the end of the first (fall 2009) and second (fall 2010) season of implementation. The sample included 2502 (Mean age=47.8 years, 61.8% female), and 2509 (Mean age=48.9 years, 59.0% female) adult respondents in each survey. RESULTS: The estimated modal shift associated with the implementation of the PBSP from motor vehicle use to walking, cycling, and public transportation was 6483 and 8023 trips in 2009 and 2010. This change represents 0.34% and 0.43% of all motor vehicle trips in Montreal. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a PBSP was associated with a shift toward active transportation. The modal shift was complex and not simply the result of a discrete shift from one mode to another. Promotion of active transportation should encourage integration of multiple active transportation modes to better reflect people's actual transportation behaviors.

Impact evaluation of a public bicycle share program on cycling: a case example of BIXI in Montreal, Quebec.

OBJECTIVES: We examined associations between residential exposure to BIXI (BIcycle-taXI)-a public bicycle share program implemented in Montreal, Quebec, in 2009, which increases accessibility to cycling by making available 5050 bicycles at 405 bicycle docking stations-and likelihood of cycling (BIXI and non-BIXI) in Montreal over the first 2 years of implementation. METHODS: Three population-based samples of adults participated in telephone surveys. Data collection occurred at the launch of the program (spring 2009), and at the end of the first (fall 2009) and second (fall 2010) seasons of implementation. Difference in differences models assessed whether greater cycling was observed for those exposed to BIXI compared with those not exposed at each time point. RESULTS: We observed a greater likelihood of cycling for those exposed to the public bicycle share program after the second season of implementation (odds ratio = 2.86; 95% confidence interval = 1.85, 4.42) after we controlled for weather, built environment, and individual variables. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a public bicycle share program can lead to greater likelihood of cycling among persons living in areas where bicycles are made available.

Outdoor falls in an urban context: winter weather impacts and geographical variations.

OBJECTIVES: Environmental factors associated with winter outdoor falls are poorly understood. This study describes the demographic, spatial and temporal distribution of outdoor falls that occurred in Laval and Montréal Island (Canada) in relation to meteorological conditions. METHOD: Data on falls, including geographic coordinates, were obtained from ambulance services (December 1, 2008 to january 31, 2009). Meteorological (temperature, precipitation levels) and land use data were used for descriptive analysis and mapping. RESULTS: During the study period, 3270 falls required ambulance interventions, of which 960 occurred outdoors. Most people injured outdoors were under 65 years of age (59%). Mapping showed a concentration of outdoor falls in central neighbourhoods and on commercial streets in Montreal. Three episodes of excess falls, representing 47% of all outdoor falls, were preceded by rain and followed by falling temperatures, or were concomitant with freezing rain. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate for the first time the distribution of outdoor falls in a densely populated urban setting with a northern climate. To promote active transportation, it is essential to take into account the safety of pedestrian travel. Snow removal and de-icing operations in municipalities should prioritize areas with high pedestrian activity.

Neighborhood social inequalities in road traffic injuries: the influence of traffic volume and road design.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the extent to which differential traffic volume and road geometry can explain social inequalities in pedestrian, cyclist, and motor vehicle occupant injuries across wealthy and poor urban areas. METHODS: We performed a multilevel observational study of all road users injured over 5 years (n=19,568) at intersections (n=17,498) in a large urban area (Island of Montreal, Canada). We considered intersection-level (traffic estimates, major roads, number of legs) and area-level (population density, commuting travel modes, household income) characteristics in multilevel Poisson regressions that nested intersections in 506 census tracts. RESULTS: There were significantly more injured pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicle occupants at intersections in the poorest than in the richest areas. Controlling for traffic volume, intersection geometry, and pedestrian and cyclist volumes greatly attenuated the event rate ratios between intersections in the poorest and richest areas for injured pedestrians (-70%), cyclists (-44%), and motor vehicle occupants (-44%). CONCLUSIONS: Roadway environment can explain a substantial portion of the excess rate of road traffic injuries in the poorest urban areas.

Internal consistency, concurrent validity, and discriminant validity of a measure of public support for policies for active living in transportation (PAL-T) in a population-based sample of adults.

Active living is a broad conceptualization of physical activity that incorporates domains of exercise; recreational, household, and occupational activities; and active transportation. Policy makers develop and implement a variety of transportation policies that can influence choices about how to travel from one location to another. In making such decisions, policy makers act in part in response to public opinion or support for proposed policies. Measures of the public's support for policies aimed at promoting active transportation can inform researchers and policy makers. This study examined the internal consistency, and concurrent and discriminant validity of a newly developed measure of the public's support for policies for active living in transportation (PAL-T). A series of 17 items representing potential policies for promoting active transportation was generated. Two samples of participants (n = 2,001 and n = 2,502) from Montreal, Canada, were recruited via random digit dialling. Analyses were conducted on the combined data set (n = 4,503). Participants were aged 18 through 94 years (58% female). The concurrent and discriminant validity of the PAL-T was assessed by examining relationships with physical activity and smoking. To explore the usability of the PAL-T, predicted scale scores were compared to the summed values of responses. Results showed that the internal consistency of the PAL-T was 0.70. Multilevel regression demonstrated no relationship between the PAL-T and smoking status (p > 0.05) but significant relationships with utilitarian walking (p < 0.05) and cycling (p < 0.01) for at least 30 minutes on 5 days/week. The PAL-T has acceptable internal consistency and good concurrent and discriminant validity. Measuring public opinion can inform policy makers and support advocacy efforts aimed at making built environments more suitable for active transportation while allowing researchers to examine the antecedents and consequences of public support for policies.

Understanding the determinants of active transportation to school among children: evidence of environmental injustice from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development.

PURPOSE: To examine the combined influence of poverty and dangerousness of the neighborhood on active transportation (AT) to school among a cohort of children followed throughout the early school years. METHODS: Growth curve modeling was used to identify determinants of AT to school among 710 children participating in the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development from 2003 through 2006. Parent-reported dangerousness and pedestrian-vehicle collision data were merged with travel mode and health data. RESULTS: At age 6 years, insufficient household income, having an older sibling, and living in a neighborhood that is not excellent for raising children, or characterized with high decay were predictive of greater likelihood of using AT and remained unchanged as children progressed from kindergarten through grade 2. CONCLUSION: A public health concern is children experiencing environmental injustice. Since AT is most likely to be adopted by those living in poverty and because it is also associated with unsafe environments, some children are experiencing environmental injustice in relation to AT. Interventions may be implemented to reduce environmental injustice through improvements in road safety.

The link between built environment, pedestrian activity and pedestrian-vehicle collision occurrence at signalized intersections.

This paper studies the influence of built environment (BE) - including land use types, road network connectivity, transit supply and demographic characteristics - on pedestrian activity and pedestrian-vehicle collision occurrence. For this purpose, a two-equation modeling framework is proposed to investigate the effect of built environment on both pedestrian activity and vehicle-pedestrian collision frequency at signalized intersections. Using accident data of ambulance services in the City of Montreal, the applicability of our framework is illustrated. Different model settings were attempted as part of a model sensitivity analysis. Among other results, it was found that the BE in the proximity of an intersection has a powerful association with pedestrian activity but a small direct effect on pedestrian-vehicle collision frequency. This suggests that the impact of BE is mainly mediated through pedestrian activity. In other words, strategies that encourage densification, mix of land uses and increase in transit supply will increase pedestrian activity and may indirectly, with no supplementary safety strategies, increase the total number of injured pedestrians. In accordance with previous research, the number of motor vehicles entering a particular intersection is the main determinant of collision frequency. Our results show that a 30% reduction in the traffic volume would reduce the total number of injured pedestrians by 35% and the average risk of pedestrian collision by 50% at the intersections under analysis. Major arterials are found to have a double negative effect on pedestrian safety. They are positively linked to traffic but negatively associated with pedestrian activity. The proposed framework is useful for the identification of effective pedestrian safety actions, the prediction of pedestrian volumes and the appropriate safety design of new urban developments that encourage walking.