Prognosticating the outcome of intensive care in older patients-a narrative review.

Prognosis determines major decisions regarding treatment for critically ill patients. Statistical models have been developed to predict the probability of survival and other outcomes of intensive care. Although they were trained on the characteristics of large patient cohorts, they often do not represent very old patients (age ≥ 80 years) appropriately. Moreover, the heterogeneity within this particular group impairs the utility of statistical predictions for informing decision-making in very old individuals. In addition to these methodological problems, the diversity of cultural attitudes, available resources as well as variations of legal and professional norms limit the generalisability of prediction models, especially in patients with complex multi-morbidity and pre-existing functional impairments. Thus, current approaches to prognosticating outcomes in very old patients are imperfect and can generate substantial uncertainty about optimal trajectories of critical care in the individual. This article presents the state of the art and new approaches to predicting outcomes of intensive care for these patients. Special emphasis has been given to the integration of predictions into the decision-making for individual patients. This requires quantification of prognostic uncertainty and a careful alignment of decisions with the preferences of patients, who might prioritise functional outcomes over survival. Since the performance of outcome predictions for the individual patient may improve over time, time-limited trials in intensive care may be an appropriate way to increase the confidence in decisions about life-sustaining treatment.

American Society of Anesthesiologists Score: still useful after 60 years? Results of the EuSOS Study.

OBJECTIVE: The European Surgical Outcomes Study described mortality following in-patient surgery. Several factors were identified that were able to predict poor outcomes in a multivariate analysis. These included age, procedure urgency, severity and type and the American Association of Anaesthesia score. This study describes in greater detail the relationship between the American Association of Anaesthesia score and postoperative mortality. METHODS: Patients in this 7-day cohort study were enrolled in April 2011. Consecutive patients aged 16 years and older undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery with a recorded American Association of Anaesthesia score in 498 hospitals across 28 European nations were included and followed up for a maximum of 60 days. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Decision tree analysis with the CHAID (SPSS) system was used to delineate nodes associated with mortality. RESULTS: The study enrolled 46,539 patients. Due to missing values, 873 patients were excluded, resulting in the analysis of 45,666 patients. Increasing American Association of Anaesthesia scores were associated with increased admission rates to intensive care and higher mortality rates. Despite a progressive relationship with mortality, discrimination was poor, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.658 (95% CI 0.642 - 0.6775). Using regression trees (CHAID), we identified four discrete American Association of Anaesthesia nodes associated with mortality, with American Association of Anaesthesia 1 and American Association of Anaesthesia 2 compressed into the same node. CONCLUSION: The American Association of Anaesthesia score can be used to determine higher risk groups of surgical patients, but clinicians cannot use the score to discriminate between grades 1 and 2. Overall, the discriminatory power of the model was less than acceptable for widespread use.

O escore da American Society of Anesthesiologists: ainda útil após 60 anos? Resultados do estudo EuSOS / American Society of Anesthesiologists Score: still useful after 60 years? Results of the EuSOS Study

RESUMO Objetivo: O European Surgical Outcomes Study foi um estudo que descreveu a mortalidade após a cirurgia de pacientes internados. Em uma análise multivariada, foram identificados diversos fatores capazes de prever maus resultados, os quais incluem idade, urgência do procedimento, gravidade e porte, assim como o escore da American Association of Anaesthesia. Este estudo descreveu, com mais detalhes, o relacionamento entre o escore da American Association of Anaesthesia e a mortalidade pós-operatória. Métodos: Os pacientes neste estudo de coorte com duração de sete dias foram inscritos em abril de 2011. Foram incluídos e seguidos, por no máximo 60 dias, pacientes consecutivos com idade de 16 anos ou mais, internados e submetidos à cirurgia não cardíaca e com registro do escore da American Association of Anaesthesia em 498 hospitais, localizados em 28 países europeus. O parâmetro primário foi mortalidade hospitalar. Foi utilizada uma árvore decisória, com base no sistema CHAID (SPSS), para delinear os nós associados à mortalidade. Resultados: O estudo inscreveu um total de 46.539 pacientes. Em função de valores faltantes, foram excluídos 873 pacientes, resultando na análise 45.666. Aumentos no escore da American Association of Anaesthesia se associaram com o acréscimo das taxas de admissão à terapia intensiva e de mortalidade. Apesar do relacionamento progressivo com mortalidade, a discriminação foi fraca, com uma área sob a curva ROC de 0,658 (IC 95% 0,642 - 0,6775). Com o uso das árvores de regressão (CHAID), foram identificadas quatro discretas associações dos nós da American Association of Anaesthesia com mortalidade, estando o escore American Association of Anaesthesia 1 e o escore da American Association of Anaesthesia 2 comprimidos em um mesmo nó. Conclusão: O escore da American Association of Anaesthesia pode ser utilizado para determinar grupos de pacientes cirúrgicos de alto risco, porém os médicos não podem utilizá-lo para ...

ABSTRACT Objective: The European Surgical Outcomes Study described mortality following in-patient surgery. Several factors were identified that were able to predict poor outcomes in a multivariate analysis. These included age, procedure urgency, severity and type and the American Association of Anaesthesia score. This study describes in greater detail the relationship between the American Association of Anaesthesia score and postoperative mortality. Methods: Patients in this 7-day cohort study were enrolled in April 2011. Consecutive patients aged 16 years and older undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery with a recorded American Association of Anaesthesia score in 498 hospitals across 28 European nations were included and followed up for a maximum of 60 days. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Decision tree analysis with the CHAID (SPSS) system was used to delineate nodes associated with mortality. Results: The study enrolled 46,539 patients. Due to missing values, 873 patients were excluded, resulting in the analysis of 45,666 patients. Increasing American Association of Anaesthesia scores were associated with increased admission rates to intensive care and higher mortality rates. Despite a progressive relationship with mortality, discrimination was poor, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.658 (95% CI 0.642 - 0.6775). Using regression trees (CHAID), we identified four discrete American Association of Anaesthesia nodes associated with mortality, with American Association of Anaesthesia 1 and American Association of Anaesthesia 2 compressed into the same node. Conclusion: The American Association of Anaesthesia score can be used to determine higher risk groups of surgical patients, but clinicians cannot use the score to discriminate between grades 1 and 2. Overall, the discriminatory power of the model was less than acceptable for widespread use. .

Delirium in intensive care: an under-diagnosed reality.

Delirium occurs in up to 80% of patients admitted to intensive care units. Although under-diagnosed, delirium is associated with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality in critical patients. Here, we review the main risk factors, clinical manifestations and preventative and therapeutic approaches (pharmacological and non-pharmacological) for this illness.

Delirium na unidade de cuidados intensivos: uma realidade subdiagnosticada / Delirium in intensive care: an under-diagnosed reality

Entidade frequente em medicina intensiva, ocorrendo em até 80% dos doentes internados na unidade de cuidados intensivos, embora muito subdiagnosticado, o delirium está associado a aumento significativo da morbilidade e da mortalidade no doente crítico. No presente artigo, foram revistos os principais fatores de risco, manifestações clínicas e abordagens preventivas e terapêuticas (farmacológicas e não farmacológicas) nessa doença.

Delirium occurs in up to 80% of patients admitted to intensive care units. Although under-diagnosed, delirium is associated with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality in critical patients. Here, we review the main risk factors, clinical manifestations and preventative and therapeutic approaches (pharmacological and non-pharmacological) for this illness.

Avaliação da mortalidade na pancreatite aguda grave: estudo comparativo entre índices de gravidade específicos e gerais / Mortality assessment in patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a comparative study of specific and general severity indices

OBJETIVO: Comparar os índices de gravidade gerais e os específicos de pancreatite aguda grave na avaliação do prognóstico numa unidade de terapia intensiva polivalente. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo de 108 pacientes com diagnóstico de saída de pancreatite aguda grave, no período de 1º de julho de 1991 a 31 de março de 2010. Foram colhidos dados demográficos, clínicos e calculados os seguintes índices de gravidade: Ranson, Osborn, Blamey e Imrie, Balthasar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II e SOFA. O poder discriminativo dos diferentes índices foi avaliado com base na área sob a curva ROC (aROC), em relação à mortalidade, na unidade de terapia intensiva e no hospital. RESULTADOS: Não existiram diferenças significativas entre os dados demográficos basais dos doentes sobreviventes e dos falecidos. A mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva foi de 27%, com uma mortalidade hospitalar de 39%. Os índices de gravidade com maior capacidade discriminativa para a mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva e hospitalar foram o POP 0, POP 24, o SOFA (na admissão, 24, 48 horas e máximo), o SAPS II e o APACHE II. CONCLUSÃO: O índice POP mostrou ser superior a todos os outros índices (aROC>0,8), quer às 24 horas (como foi originalmente descrito), quer à admissão. Os índices de disfunção fisiológica gerais apresentaram também uma capacidade discriminativa razoável (aROC na ordem dos 0,75-0,8) por oposição aos outros índices específicos de pancreatite, cujo valor discriminativo foi francamente mais baixo.

OBJECTIVE: This study compared the general and specific severity indices to assess the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis at a polyvalent intensive care unit. METHODS: This retrospective study included 108 patients who were diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis from July 1, 1999 to March 31, 2012. Their demographic and clinical data were collected, and the following severity indices were calculated: Ranson, Osborne, Blamey and Imrie, Balthazar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA. The discriminative power of these indices with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital was assessed using the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The demographic data of the surviving and deceased patients did not significantly differ at baseline. The mortality rates were 27% and 39% at the intensive care unit and hospital, respectively. The severity indices that exhibited the greatest discriminative power with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital were the POP 0, POP 24, SOFA (at admission, 24 hours, 48 hours, and discharge), SAPS II, and APACHE II. CONCLUSION: The POP performed better than the other indices (aROC>0.8) at admission and 24 hours later (as originally described). The general physiological dysfunction indices also exhibited reasonable discriminative power (aROC=0.75-0.8), which was unlike the remaining pancreatitis specific indices, whose discriminative power was lower.

Mortality assessment in patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a comparative study of specific and general severity indices. / Avaliação da mortalidade na pancreatite aguda grave: estudo comparativo entre índices de gravidade específicos e gerais.

OBJECTIVE: This study compared the general and specific severity indices to assess the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis at a polyvalent intensive care unit. METHODS: This retrospective study included 108 patients who were diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis from July 1, 1999 to March 31, 2012. Their demographic and clinical data were collected, and the following severity indices were calculated: Ranson, Osborne, Blamey and Imrie, Balthazar, POP, APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA. The discriminative power of these indices with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital was assessed using the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The demographic data of the surviving and deceased patients did not significantly differ at baseline. The mortality rates were 27% and 39% at the intensive care unit and hospital, respectively. The severity indices that exhibited the greatest discriminative power with regard to mortality at the intensive care unit and hospital were the POP 0, POP 24, SOFA (at admission, 24 hours, 48 hours, and discharge), SAPS II, and APACHE II. CONCLUSION: The POP performed better than the other indices (aROC>0.8) at admission and 24 hours later (as originally described). The general physiological dysfunction indices also exhibited reasonable discriminative power (aROC=0.75-0.8), which was unlike the remaining pancreatitis specific indices, whose discriminative power was lower.