The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development.

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Seabed Resuspension in the Chesapeake Bay: Implications for Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia.

Sediment processes, including resuspension and transport, affect water quality in estuaries by altering light attenuation, primary productivity, and organic matter remineralization, which then influence oxygen and nitrogen dynamics. The relative importance of these processes on oxygen and nitrogen dynamics varies in space and time due to multiple factors and is difficult to measure, however, motivating a modeling approach to quantify how sediment resuspension and transport affect estuarine biogeochemistry. Results from a coupled hydrodynamic-sediment transport-biogeochemical model of the Chesapeake Bay for the summers of 2002 and 2003 showed that resuspension increased light attenuation, especially in the northernmost portion of the Bay, shifting primary production downstream. Resuspension also increased remineralization in the central Bay, which experienced larger organic matter concentrations due to the downstream shift in primary productivity and estuarine circulation. As a result, oxygen decreased and ammonium increased throughout the Bay in the bottom portion of the water column, due to reduced photosynthesis in the northernmost portion of the Bay and increased remineralization in the central Bay. Averaged over the channel, resuspension decreased oxygen by ~ 25% and increased ammonium by ~ 50% for the bottom water column. Changes due to resuspension were of the same order of magnitude as, and generally exceeded, short-term variations within individual summers, as well as interannual variability between 2002 and 2003, which were wet and dry years, respectively. Our results quantify the degree to which sediment resuspension and transport affect biogeochemistry, and provide insight into how coastal systems may respond to management efforts and environmental changes.

Contribution of hurricane-induced sediment resuspension to coastal oxygen dynamics.

Hurricanes passing over the ocean can mix the water column down to great depths and resuspend massive volumes of sediments on the continental shelves. Consequently, organic carbon and reduced inorganic compounds associated with these sediments can be resuspended from anaerobic portions of the seabed and re-exposed to dissolved oxygen (DO) in the water column. This process can drive DO consumption as sediments become oxidized. Previous studies have investigated the effect of hurricanes on DO in different coastal regions of the world, highlighting the alleviation of hypoxic conditions by extreme winds, which drive vertical mixing and re-aeration of the water column. However, the effect of hurricane-induced resuspended sediments on DO has been neglected. Here, using a diverse suite of datasets for the northern Gulf of Mexico, we find that in the few days after a hurricane passage, decomposition of resuspended shelf sediments consumes up to a fifth of the DO added to the bottom of the water column during vertical mixing. Despite uncertainty in this value, we highlight the potential significance of this mechanism for DO dynamics. Overall, sediment resuspension likely occurs over all continental shelves affected by tropical cyclones, potentially impacting global cycles of marine DO and carbon.