Spatial Optimization Methods for Malaria Risk Mapping in Sub-Saharan African Cities Using Demographic and Health Surveys.

Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, are affected by the rapid urban growth and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this context, intra-urban malaria risk maps act as a key decision-making tool for targeting malaria control interventions, especially in resource-limited settings. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide a consistent malaria data source for mapping malaria risk at the national scale, but their use is limited at the intra-urban scale because survey cluster coordinates are randomly displaced for ethical reasons. In this research, we focus on predicting intra-urban malaria risk in SSA cities-Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Kampala and Ouagadougou-and investigate the use of spatial optimization methods to overcome the effect of DHS spatial displacement. We modeled malaria risk using a random forest regressor and remotely sensed covariates depicting the urban climate, the land cover and the land use, and we tested several spatial optimization approaches. The use of spatial optimization mitigated the effects of DHS spatial displacement on predictive performance. However, this comes at a higher computational cost, and the percentage of variance explained in our models remained low (around 30%-40%), which suggests that these methods cannot entirely overcome the limited quality of epidemiological data. Building on our results, we highlight potential adaptations to the DHS sampling strategy that would make them more reliable for predicting malaria risk at the intra-urban scale.

Reconstructing historical 3D city models.

Historical maps are increasingly used for studying how cities have evolved over time, and their applications are multiple: understanding past outbreaks, urban morphology, economy, etc. However, these maps are usually scans of older paper maps, and they are therefore restricted to two dimensions. We investigate in this paper how historical maps can be 'augmented' with the third dimension so that buildings have heights, volumes, and roof shapes. The resulting 3D city models, also known as digital twins, have several benefits in practice since it is known that some spatial analyses are only possible in 3D: visibility studies, wind flow analyses, population estimation, etc. At this moment, reconstructing historical models is (mostly) a manual and very time-consuming operation, and it is plagued by inaccuracies in the 2D maps. In this paper, we present a new methodology to reconstruct 3D buildings from historical maps, we developed it with the aim of automating the process as much as possible, and we discuss the engineering decisions we made when implementing it. Our methodology uses extra datasets for height extraction, reuses the 3D models of buildings that still exist, and infers other buildings with procedural modelling. We have implemented and tested our methodology with real-world historical maps of European cities for different times between 1700 and 2000.